New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions
New England Patriots -6.5
Total: 55
Players to Watch
New England Patriots
Tom Brady – Brady really struggled in Week 2 as the near 100-degree temperatures combined with the stifling Jaguars defense held him to 234 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-20 loss. Things should be much easier in Week 3 as the Patriots face a Lions defense that has allowed four passing touchdowns over the first two weeks of the season to the likes of Sam Darnold and Jimmy Garoppolo .
Rob Gronkowski – Gronk was shutdown in Week 2, held to just two catches on four targets for 15 yards. Week 3 should be an easier matchup for Gronk however as the Patriots face an inferior Lions defense. I look for Brady to get the passing game going early with a focus on getting Gronkowski involved.
James White – The Lions rank among the league's worst against opposing running backs and while Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead will figure into the game plan it is James White that should earn the majority of the workout of the backfield in a pass catching role. Through two games White has caught 11 passes on 17 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots “ground game” is often just short dump passes to White in space where he is able to do his best work.
Chris Hogan – After a disappointing Week 1 where he caught just one of five targets for 11 yards Hogan caught both of Tom Brady ’s touchdown passes against the Jaguars. Newly acquired Josh Gordon is inactive for tonight’s game so Hogan still figures to be the primary deep threat with Phillip Dorsett filling in the slot.
Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford – Stafford threw four interceptions on opening night in front of his home crowd but he should have better success tonight against a Patriots defense that has struggled to defend the pass in recent seasons and was just lit up by Blake Bortles in Week 3. At the very least Stafford should be able to rack up passing yards as New England has no issue allowing teams to move down field but often tightens up their defense when in the red zone with last week being an exception to previous years. Stafford rebounded from his poor Week 1 to throw for 347 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers in Week 2.
Golden Tate – Tate could be the receiver to make the biggest impact in tonight’s game for the Lions as the Patriots really struggle with receivers that run sideline to sideline over the middle of the field which is something Tate has made a career out of. Through two games this season take has 14 catches on 28 targets for 188 yards and a touchdown.
Kenny Golladay – There was a ton of hype surrounding Golladay during the preseason and so far he has tore it up through the first two weeks having caught 13 passes for 203 yards and a touchdown. Depending on the status of Marvin Jones Jr. tonight, Golladay could find himself matched up with Stephon Gilmore who is a very good man-on-man defender.
Kerryon Johnson – The Lions use a backfield by committee similar to the Patriots with Theo Riddick and LeGarrette Blount seeing work but the team’s best back and most versatile is Johnson who has 60 yards rushing and 43 yards receiving through two games this season. Johnson has eight catches on nine targets this year and averages 4.2 yards per carry.
Pre-Game Props
1) The last non-kneeling offensive play of the 1st Q is a passing play. (Yes 2.6x)(No 2.4x)
I am going to go with YES for this prop as both teams are pass heavy offenses and I expect the final plays of the quarter to come at the hands of either Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford .
2) The first offensive play of the 1st Q is a completed pass. (Yes 3.3x)(No 2.0x)
I am going with a YES for this prop as well. As I said, both teams are pass heavy offenses and both teams struggle to defend the pass so a completed pass play works for me here. You also get the nice 3.3x multiplier.
3) Rob Gronkowski records more receiving yards than Golden Tate in the 1st Q. (YES 2.1x)(No 3.3x)
So the odds here favor Gronk but as I said, the Patriots really struggle with receivers with Golden Tate ’s skillset. Tate also has the 3.3x multiplier in his favor so I will be going NO for this prop.
4) Kenny Golladay records 1 or more receptions on the Lions opening drive. (Yes 3.6x)(No 1.9x)
I am going to go with a YES for this prop. Not only is Golladay one of the team’s more targeted receivers but you also get the 3.6x multiplier if he catches just one pass on the opening drive which he is sure to be targeted.
5) Matthew Stafford throws a passing TD in the 1st Q. (Yes 3.5x)(No 2x)
I am going to go with YES for this prop. The Patriots pass defense is not very good so it would not shock me to see Stafford put the Lions on the board in the first quarter.
6) New England gains 15 or more rushing yards on their opening drive. (Yes 2.1x)(No 3.4x)
This is a NO for me. The Patriots do not run the ball a ton and I expect them to come out passing early in this game to try and get in the lead in what is expected to be a shootout.