Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros

O/U: 8

TB -120

The jury is out on both teams. This is Game 7. There are no secrets anymore. The Rays have blown a 3-0 lead and the Astros are looking to become just the second team ever to complete the series win when trailing three games to none. 

Rays

With their season unraveling before everyone’s eyes, the Rays are sending Game 2 starter, Charlie Morton , to the mound with the chance to go to the World Series. Morton threw five scoreless innings in Game 2 and even saw his pitch count up at 96, the most he’s thrown all season long. He’s going to have to do the same thing in Game 7 if the Rays are going to go to the World Series and not relinquish this 3-0 series lead that they once had and let slip.

The usual suspects are in play for Tampa Bay. The postseason hero in Randy Arozarena is first as he’s belted six bombs in the playoffs. It’s almost been feast or famine with him, however, as he didn’t record a hit in Game 6. Someone who did record a hit, two big ones in fact, was Manuel Margot , who hit two home runs despite his team scoring just four runs. Margot now has five postseason bombs after hitting ONE in the regular season.

Right-handed hitters gave Lance McCullers more issues this season than lefties did, but it’s hard to simply ignore some of Tampa Bay’s left-handers like Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows who have been their two best hitters over the past year and a half. Both are struggling mightily this postseason, but Lowe has hit in the last two, including a homer, and has scored three runs.

Mike Zunino , Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Díaz are all value options and the righties are slightly more appealing considering McCullers struggles more against same-handed hitters than the reverse split.

Astros

Lance McCullers looked pretty good in Game 2, but he lost. He’s lost a lot of starts on the road this year, which, considering this series is being played in San Diego..is the road. He had a sparkling 1.42 ERA at home this year but a 7.33 mark on the road. Opponents hit .290 against him, he allowed 4-of-5 homers and just couldn’t get out of his own way.

The Astros offense is churning on the legs of both Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve , both of whom are hitting everything pitched at them. Correa came into Game 6 hitting .342 with a 1.272 OPS in the postseason and then notched three more hits to his belt. Altuve extended his hitting streak to eight games, with 4-of-6 going for multiple knocks.

Michael Brantley , who is never expensive, had two more hits on Friday which gave him at least one hit in every game this series and has four RBI over his last four games. He’s hitting third, cheap and is locked into all of my lineups.

George Springer had his third straight contest with at least one RBI, five total over that span, including two homers. Kyle Tucker homered on Friday, his first of the postseason. We might also see Aledmys Díaz back in the lineup, despite a righty being on the mound, after his two-hit outing on Friday. He’ll likely be replaced defensively by Josh Reddick , but he’ll get three or four at-bats before that happens.


 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

O/U: 8.5

LAD -150
 

The Dodgers prevailed in Game 5 as the series pushed on with the Braves up 3-2. The Dodgers send their legally registered firearm in Walker Buehler to the mound in hopes he gets them to Game 7. The Braves turn to their ace from the 2020 campaign, Max Fried .

Dodgers

There are few pitchers in baseball with more electric stuff than 26-year old Walker Buehler . Buehler was sharp in Game 1 allowing just one ER over five innings while striking out seven. He’s struck out seven or more in all three postseason starts while allowing 2 ER or less in each outing. The 95 and 100 pitches he has thrown over his last two starts tell us that Dave Roberts is willing to unleash his ace this postseason if that means a World Series trip and ring.

However many different ways I can tell you to play Corey Seager are still not enough ways. He’s homered in 3-of-4 while hitting four homers over that span (2 on Friday), has hits in 6-of-7 and has FIVE postseason bombs altogether. He hits lefties well too, so I’m not scared off by the lefty-lefty match-up.

The Dodgers don’t love lefties, but some guys like A.J. Pollock, Will Smith and Justin Turner all hit them well during the season. Smith actually hit the go-ahead homer in this one and over the last month, Smith’s OPS is over 1.000. Pollock, like I mentioned, smashes lefties to the tune of a .345 AVG, 7 HR and .468 wOBA. Turner’s been struggling, but he has a .333 wOBA vs. LHP on the year.

Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger are obviously options too, but Betts hits righties better and it’s not even close and Bellinger hit lefties, but isn’t great against them. But sometimes talent trumps match-up if you have a hunch.

Braves

We mentioned it up top, but the Braves are sending their best starter to the hill tonight in Max Fried with a chance to put them into the World Series. Fried pitched to a 2.34 ERA this season and averaged 17.1 DKP/game. He’s coming off a gem against the Dodgers already this season allowing just 1 ER over 6 IP while striking out nine.

The Braves have a pretty elite lineup against right-handed pitching and that can be scary for Buehler. The Braves have SIX players that could crack their lineup that have posted a wOBA of .363 or better against RHP. Freddie Freeman is the prize possession, as we know, and he’s homered off Buehler twice in his career.

Travis d'Arnaud had two RBI on Friday and hit RHP at a .344 clip with a .433 wOBA. D’Arnaud has driven in 10 runs over his last 10 games while hitting .294 over that span. Ozzie Albies is one of my favorite plays from Braves as he has a hit in 8-of-10 and is batting .293 over that span. Not to mention he has a .363 wOBA vs. RHP.

We also have three other Braves that have 10+ HR vs. RHP this season in Ronald Acuña Jr. , Marcell Ozuna and Dansby Swanson . All three of them have a .373 wOBA or better and Acuna and Ozuna are both over .415. Cristian Pache is a punt if he starts, which is likely the case.