Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros

Over/Under: 8.5

TB -135

The Astros were able to steal one game against the Rays best pitcher in Tyler Glasnow , so they have to be feeling pretty good. That said, they’re down 3-1 and face a team acclimated to use an opener better than anyone else is. 

Rays

The Rays are starting reliever John Curtiss to start Game 5 of the ALDS tonight. He had five appearances of his 20 go at least two innings, so needless to say this is going to be a bullpen game. The Rays could use their rookie left-hander Josh Fleming for an extended outing or could turn to Blake Snell on little rest. Maybe both. I’m interested in taking a shot on Fleming in GPP’s. Could backfire, but worth a look.

There hasn’t been a lot of offense in this series, but home runs have still been leaving the yard at a solid clip. Randy Arozarena, however, is still hitting everything out of the park as he belted his fifth homer of the postseason on Wednesday. Arozarena has at least one hit and one run scored in each game this series and should be one of our favorite bats we take a look at on the entire slate.

Outside of Arozarena, Manuel Margot stands out in this spot, especially if he’s once again leading off. He’s had a hit in three straight games, including one in which he blasted a three-run homer. We’ve seen three home runs hit by Margot over his last nine games, who only hit four across the entire 60 game season. He’s cheap, too, which is ideal.

Tampa doesn’t have many hot hitters right now, but Austin Meadows has found his bat this postseason. He had two hits on Wednesday and in 3-of-5 he’s either had two hits or hit a home run. He’s cheap on top of that.

I don’t love much else from Tampa Bay. Ji-Man Choi is OK, as is Mike Zunino and Joey Wendle . Wendle doesn’t do much other than hit for average, Choi is inconsistent and we play Zunino for the random homers he hits.

Astros

Like the Rays, it looks as if the Astros are going to go with a bullpen type game as they deploy Luis García as their starter. Garcia had thrown two outings of four plus innings, but they were over a month ago in the beginning of September. A few names worth mentioning that could follow Garcia are Chase De Jong and Brooks Raley.

He waited until the postseason, but Jose Altuve is on fire. He’s homered four times over his last five games and has a hit in five straight as well. He’s put up 14+ DK points in 6-of-10 games. He’s arguably the hottest hitters left in the postseason.

He has some teammates that have hit well. Carlos Correa has been on fire, hitting .412/.500/.794 over his last 10 games. George Springer is coming off a three-hit game and 3 HR in nine postseason contests.

If Tampa Bay throws Blake Snell in Game 5, Aledmys Díaz likely starts and he’s a strong value if he does. He’s a decent value, as is Michael Brantley , who’s hit .350 over his last 10 games. Martín Maldonado has posted an .869 OPS vs. LHP this year as we suspect Blake Snell starts this game. If he doesn’t, and a righty is on the hill, I have less interest.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

Over/Under: 9

LAD -220

After being scratched for Game 2 with back spasms, Clayton Kershaw is good to go for Game 4 as his team could tie the series up with a win. They went absolutely berserk in Game 3 scoring 11 first inning runs and 15 total. The Braves didn’t need a fourth starter until now so Wilson has yet to pitch in the postseason.

Dodgers

With Clayton Kershaw on the hill, the Dodgers should be confident they’re going to tie this series up. Vegas sure is as the Dodgers are massive -220 favorites right now. It seems like the back spasms are behind him and he’ll be able to go as long as the Dodgers need him here. He’s won both of his postseason starts this year and has a 19:1 K:BB ratio across 14 innings.

Moving over to their offense, Corey Seager continues to lead the way as he notched three more hits on Wednesday, including his second straight game with a home run. He has three multi-hits games over his last four and is hitting everything pitched at him right now. 

Seager isn’t the only one feeling himself, however, as Cody Bellinger homered for the second time in four games on Wednesday and continued his streak of a hit in every game this postseason. Max Muncy has homered in two straight and Bryse Wilson has allowed a .429 AVG, 1.000 OPS and .437 wOBA to LHH this year.

Because lefties tear Bryse Wilson up, expect to see Edwin Ríos back in the lineup again on Thursday. He went 1-for-5 with a home run and a walk on Wednesday. He also has a .351 wOBA vs. RHP. After a four hit night, Joc Pederson could find himself back in the lineup, especially with a righty on the hill. He’s viable as well.

I won’t be the one to leave out the fact that Mookie Betts and Will Smith hit right-handers so well. They’re both very much in play, especially on a two game slate where the biggest total resides in this game.

Braves

As I mentioned at the top, Bryse Wilson is making his first postseason start. Who knows how much work he’s been getting on the side, but he only pitched in six games in the regular season and those games spanned just 15.2 innings. He won’t be long for this game because of a likely pitch count, but who knows if he ever reaches that pitch count based on what the Dodgers offense can do to him beforehand.

The Braves offense does not have a long list of guys with a lifetime of success against Clayton Kershaw . In fact, only one player on their roster is hitting him at better than a .273 clip and it’s Dansby Swanson who’s only faced him six times.

The Braves offense does not have many at-bats against left-handed pitching this year. Ronald Acuña Jr. has a .374 wOBA versus southpaws, Marcell Ozuna hit .356 against them and in 16 at-bats, Nick Markakis had six hits, good for a .375 AVG.

Johan Camargo is entering the lineup for the Braves as he’s routinely hit left-handed pitching well throughout his career. He has an .844 OPS against southpaws for his career. Ozzie Albies is another Brave who has loved his lefties. Albies is a career .345 hitter with OPS over .950 vs. LHP.

Cristian Pache is a dart throw, but he did homer on Wednesday and has the split advantage. I will also never tell you to fade Freddie Freeman if you have the available salary to get to him.

 

**These are Example Lineups, they are not meant to be plugged in and played as is.**