2017 NFL Target Analysis: Week 2

There are now two weeks in the books and we are beginning to sift through the target information with a little more clarity. We’re learning who each team believes is their top dog and who quarterbacks are leaning on. We’ve obviously had some surprises come across our desk so to speak and some omissions from the list that we don’t expect to be there for much longer. Without further ado, let’s dive into the data!

Target Leaders

Our Week 1 leader DeAndre Hopkins continues to pace the league after Week 2 as well. We have 13 new names that have shown up from Week 1 to Week 2 with Jarvis Landry being the most notable addition. Landry saw 15 targets from Jay Cutler and made 13 receptions, as the chart noted. The Dolphins breakout candidate, DeVante Parker, saw nine targets himself, but Landry is clearly Cutler’s most trusted receiver when he needs move the chains. It is worth noting, however, that if Landry is ever handed a suspension from the league, we could easily see DeVante Parker’s nine receptions balloon to double-digits each and every contest. Out of the 51 names, seven are running backs, nine are tight ends and 35 receivers. 

One of the newcomers on the list, Marqise Lee, showed he is the now the clear number one option in Jacksonville with Allen Robinson out for the year. His 12 targets and seven receptions were clearly indicative of that. In PPR formats, he’s the guy you want over Allen Hurns, who could warrant some standard league value himself, but the volume Lee is going to receive has been established in just one game without Robinson.

One of the most noticeable omissions is Jordy Nelson. Obviously playing only seven snaps in Week 2 is the cause, but this is more about the three other Packers’ on this list. We shouldn’t expect this to continue, especially with how solid Ty Montgomery has looked on the ground as well. With a healthy Jordy Nelson, there are way too many mouths to feed to continue to keep three, even four names in the top-50. We know how well Aaron Rodgers can distribute the ball when things are going well, but there’s a reason why we saw only two of the aforementioned names in the top-70 in targets during the 2016 campaign.

Target Percentage

Things really didn’t change much from Week 1 to Week 2 as DeAndre Hopkins is dominating the rest of the league in Target Percentage as he’s posted a league leading mark of 48.3-percent. The Texans second highest targeted receiver is Braxton Miller with four. Tyler Ervin has seen 10 targets out of the backfield, but he’s the team’s third-string RB and saw his snap count from Week 1 plummet.

The only other wide receivers that garner over 30-percent of it’s team target percentage are Antonio Brown, Amari Cooper and Jarvis Landry. Three guys we’d expect to see on this list because they’ve been high volume players in the past. There are a few players right on the cusp of that mark too. That being said, after Week 1 we had 11 players on the spreadsheet above that were seeing better than 30-percent of their teams targets. We’ve obviously begun to weed that out and we should see how heavily each player on the aforementioned spreadsheet truly is in the upcoming weeks.

Red Zone Targets

Our league leader in Red Zone targets after two weeks is Dez Bryant with six, which is already half way to his 2016 total. It’s unlikely this pace continues, especially when the Cowboys get Ezekiel Elliott on track and are able to pound the rock heart the end zone. Six of the eight players that have seen four or more targets within the red zone are on our list. 

Something I find extremely interesting in the situation in Oakland between Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Crabtree has actually outperformed Cooper in recent memory, but don’t blame Derek Carr for trying. Although Crabtree has three touchdowns this year and three red zone targets, Cooper as actually outpaced Crabtree in red zone targets with four, yet he’s only scored one. This is a trend that we should expect to continue. The Raiders made it abundantly clear this offseason Cooper was their guy and they’ve made sure he’s getting all the looks he can handle, especially inside the 20-yard line.

With Jordan Howard dealing with injuries and simply being outplayed by his backup, Tarik Cohen has received all the buzz these first two weeks, but the Bears have another option that nobody seems to be talking about, but actually paces the team in red zone targets. That player is Kendall Wright. Wright has become the Bears de facto number one receiver with all of it’s injury and although we haven’t seen monster results, it’s worth noting for both season long and DFS purposes.

Drops

Every fantasy players nightmare is turning on NFL red zone and watching their guy drop a pass. After one week, nobody separated themselves from the pack as Matt Forte was the only player in the NFL that registered two drops. After two weeks, 10 players are tied for first with two.

Marqise Lee, Kendall Wright and Alvin Kamara are the three names on our list that have two drops. You can look at this from two angles. First, look at it in a positive light that their numbers could be even better if they had just simply held onto the ball or look at it negatively and wonder if their QB’s have lost any trust in them.

Only 16-of-51 players on our spreadsheet have dropped a pass in the first two weeks. That number will without a doubt continue to rise, but it’s nice to know that the “Duke” is being valued by those given the chance to touch it.