Welcome to the Sunday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 9!

Oh baby! It’s the game everyone has been waiting for! Two teams battling for supremacy in the NFC South and two teams that have been picked as favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. You’ve also got the return of Michael Thomas to the Saints and the debut of Antonio Brown on the Bucs side. Think about this – how in the world do you choose from this array of fantasy weaponry? Thomas is joined by Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees while Brown is joined by Tom Brady , Mike Evans , Chris Godwin and Gronk. Where is the pay-down? Where are the bargains? Well….we’ll try and find someone.

Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -3.5

O/U: 50.5

Betting Facts:

Money line: Buccaneers -182; Saints +160

The Saints enter on a 4-game win streak, but failed to cover the spread in each of their last 3 and are 2-5 ATS overall

The Saints are 7-0 vs the O/U

The Bucs own a 3-game win streak and are 4-4 ATS, failing to cover their last game – a 25-23 Monday night win at the New York Giants.

The Bucs are 5-3 vs the O/U

Weather:

High 70’s, cloudy with a 15% chance of precipitation; winds ENE 13-15 mph

Last 5 Match-Ups:

Saints lead 4-1 and have won the last four-straight

Average margin of victory of all games: 11.4

Last Match-Up: Saints beat the Buccaneers 34-23 in New Orleans on 9/13/2020

Notable Injuries:

Buccaneers:

Chris Godwin (finger – questionable but expected to play)

Saints:

Michael Thomas (hamstring – questionable but expected to play)

Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):

Buccaneers:

vs Pass: 1st  

vs Run: 3rd   

Saints:

vs Pass: 13th

vs Run: 4th

Prop Bets to Watch:

The reason we are listing these here is to help you understand what the Vegas expectations are. If you aren’t routinely amazed by how accurate spreads and totals are, you haven’t been paying attention and you’re missing out on a valuable tool. Take a look at the list below and understand how to utilize for DFS. When you see the over and under have the same money line, that’s Vegas’ way of saying it can go either way. You have the base number and can determine whether you use a player or not based on that. But when there is a different money line on the over and unders, Vegas is telling you what to expect. A negative money line means they feel it is more likely to happen which can help you make decisions regarding which players to play.

  • Drew Brees Passing Yards: 278.5 (over +100, under -122); TD Passes: 1.5 (over -182, under +145)
  • Tom Brady Passing Yards: 295.5 (over +110, under -137); TD Passes: 2.5 (over +135, under -167)
  • Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards: 48.5 (over +100, under -125); Receiving Yards: 41.5 (over -130, under +105)
  • Latavius Murray Rushing Yards: 27.5 (over & under -112); Receiving Yards: 8.5 (over & under -112)
  • Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards: 34.5 (over -143, under +115); Receiving Yards: 24.5 (over +115, under -143)
  • Ronald Jones Rushing Yards: 48.5 (over +115, under -143); 15.5 (over +110, under -137)
  • Michael Thomas Receiving Yards: 62.5 (over -124, under +100)
  • Emmanuel Sanders Receiving Yards: 42.5 (over +105, under -130)
  • Tre'Quan Smith Receiving Yards: 31.5 (over -106, under -118)
  • Chris Godwin Receiving Yards: 53.5 (over -106, under -118)
  • Mike Evans Receiving Yards: 55.5 (over +100, under -124)
  • Antonio Brown Receiving Yards: 39.5 (over & under -112)
  • Scott Miller Receiving Yards: 29.5 (over & under -112)
  • Jared Cook Receiving Yards: 37.5 (over & under -112)
  • Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards: 38.5 (over -125, under +101)
  • Cameron Brate Receiving Yards: 6.5 (over & under -112)

MVP/Captain

Tom Brady , QB TB – He’s got all these weapons at his disposal and the Saints pass defense is allowing nearly 240 passing yards and a whopping 19 touchdowns through the air. Rather than worrying about whether he spreads it out or locks onto one guy in particular, just lock him into the top spot.

Alvin Kamara , RB NO – When was the last time Kamara in the Captain seat was a contrarian play? Probably never. But he is here as the Bucs run defense ranks No. 1 according to DVOA. But Kamara does it all, rushing and receiving, and is more than capable of popping off regardless of match-up.

Antonio Brown , WR TB – Brady has his shiny, new toy and he’s likely to take it out for a spin tonight. He saves you some money being used as the Captain and let’s face it…all that lobbying TB12 did to bring AB to Tampa? You know he’s locking onto him when he can.

Mid-Tier

Drew Brees , QB NO – Everyone is all-in on the Bucs, so why not look at Brees who should have to throw a little more given the Bucs run defense. He gets his favorite target back in Michael Thomas and has a rock-solid array of weapons as well.

Michael Thomas , WR NO – Welcome back, Mike. Expect to see Brees forcing targets Thomas’ way all game. He’ll be matched up with Jamel Dean who missed a few practices this week with an illness. Thomas should be eager to make his mark this week.

Chris Godwin , WR TB – The finger issue shouldn’t be much of a problem, so look for Godwin to tangle with Saints slot corner Chauncey Gardner-Johnson which tilts the advantage Godwin’s way.

Rob Gronkowski , TE TB – Brady has been looking Gronk’s way more and more, as evidenced by the 20 targets and three touchdowns over the last three games. The Saints struggle in coverage against the tight end position, allowing almost 60 yards per game to them, and are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to them.

Dart Throws

Taysom Hill , QB NO – Brees has been dealing with some shoulder issues and you know Sean Payton has a few gimmick plays involving Hill ready to go this week. It’s a dirty pay-down, but with so much high-priced talent, you have to do something like this.

Cameron Brate , TE TB – If you want to go contrarian from Gronk to get some of the other marquee names in there, again, the Saints allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Brate won’t get you yards, but he can score touchdowns.

Ryan Succop , K TB – You can’t have all the top guys in your lineup without throwing a kicker in there. No reason you can’t use Succop if you think the Bucs will score a ton of points.

Wil Lutz , K NO – Will the Bucs defense stall the Saints offense? If you think so, then use Lutz over Succop.