(+145) Rogue Warriors v LNG (-185)

(+475) LGD v Invictus Gaming (-800)

(+280) Fredit BRION v Hanwha Life Esports (-425)

(+155)KT Rolster v Nongshim RedForce (-195)

With no real surprises from yesterday, be on the lookout for some possible upsets on this Thursday morning slate. With teams Like Rogue Warriors, Fredit BRION, and LGD out of the playoffs, the only real impact they could have is to ruin the day of teams who want to end in the highest seed possible while we have KT Rolster fighting Nongshim RedForce for the final LCK playoff spot. Everything is on the line and we should get great games this Thursday. Let’s get after it!  

Game #1 Rogue Warriors v LNG

Cann’s Pick: LNG

Cann’s Breakdown: Rogue Warriors are a disaster and there doesn’t seem to be much of a reprieve to their struggles. There isn’t even the silver lining of some bottom tier teams taking some series to a full three games because they are 3-29 straight up in their games played which is pretty abysmal. LNG isn’t great against good teams but they take care of business against bad teams.  

Game #2: LGD v Invictus Gaming

Cann’s Pick: Invictus Gaming

Cann’s Breakdown: Invictus has locked in their spot in Spring playoffs but they have a chance to end anywhere from 8th-10th. In the LPL, that range can really change your path in playoffs. LGD has a 33% win rate in games so they have had some series in which they keep in close, but I think the jungle gap between XUN and Kui/Flora is entirely too wide to overcome. 

Game #2: Fredit BRION v Hanwha Life Esports

Cann’s Pick:Hanwha Life Esports

Cann’s Breakdown: There is no love hidden by me to HLE. The important thing about this fame is that HLE have to win to keep an outside chance of sliding into the #2 spot overall in playoffs but there is also a chance for BRO to sneak into the playoffs too. Henna has played decently as of late and UmTi is a pretty decent jungler but the Chovy v Lava match up will most likely decide the outcome of this match. 

Game #2: KT Rolster v Nongshim RedForce

Cann’s Pick: Nongshim RedForce

Cann’s Breakdown: This should be the most impassioned match. If Nongshim win, they all but put the nail in the coffin for KT Rolster as they would have a 2-0 series advantage over them and a 2 game standings lead for the last spot. I think KT is your best upset bet on the day and I think either way it should go three games in this match. Either way this match will be decided on which bot laner (NS-deokdam or KT-HyBriD) will do more for their team on this day.  

Fantasy Value Breakdown

Captain

Favorite: Chovy (HLE: $11,700) Chovy may be my favorite player in the LCK. A lot of times he gets overshadowed by players like ShowMaker or Faker but Chovy has been such a consistent player in the LCK. This split he is first among mid laners and 7th overall in terms of kills (147) and is a huge part of HLE’s game plan with a team kill participation rate of 69%. Chovy will walk all over Lava and HLE should get a pretty easy 2-0 as long as they get solid drafts. 

Value Pick: HyBriD (KT: $10,500)

Top Lane

Favorite: TheShy (IG: $6,400)  A tale as old as time, TheShy being favored in a lane against a more passive lane opponent. He hasn’t had the most overly impressive split with 79 kills and a 2.4 KDA. I would argue he is a safer move here because IG is playing Cult and LGD. The only advantage Cult has over TheShy is less deaths but he loses lane (-76 gold on average at 10 min) and has 50+ kills to his name. Easy pick up here and you might get lucky and catch TheShy on a day where he doesn’t die for no reason. 

Value Pick: Doran (KT: $5,800) 

Jungle

Favorite: XUN (IG: $7,400) I LOVE XUN in this spot right here. I would actually even say you could move him into the captain’s role if you wanted. He has 154 kills in 34 games which is 4.5 kills a game (That is around 27 points per series then) and is averaging 70.3 FPPG. His highest point day was 92 which is massive for junglers at this point. This is a lot for a jungler but he is one of a handful in the world I would pay over $7,000 since he is synch a carry for IG. 

Value Pick: Tarzan (LNG: $7,000)

Mid Lane

Favorite: Rookie (IG: $7,600) The gap between Rookie and Uniboy in the early game will be what snowballs IG in this series. Rookie has a gold differential of +292 at 10 minutes while Uniboy averages -226. Uniboy frequently gets bullied out of lane and can’t make an impact until later in the match while Rookie is relevant at all stages. Rookie will cross the 100 kill threshold as well this series as he is sitting with 95 currently.  

Value Pick: icon (LNG: $7,400)   

ADC

Favorite: Light (LNG: $8,000) This is the strength of LNG and is the reason why the bot lane is the most expensive in this lineup. Light has a 4.0 KDA and 129 kills to his name in 33 games played. He is responsible for about 35% of all LNG kills and has done so while limiting his deaths (65). Rogue Warriors have used three different bot laners and none of them are good with Betty having the highest KDA at 2.6. This series (like most with RW) has the opportunity to be over very quickly and I expect to LNG to have a bit of a rebound after their last two losses (which is better than the 13 game losing streak by Rogue Warriors).

Value Pick: deokdam (NS: $7,400)

Support

Favorite: Iwandy (LNG: $6,000) I am a huge fan of Bot lane/support stacking on this slate. Whichever bot laner you think is going to have themself a day, pick up their support as well. Much like Light, Iwandy has not had the most groundbreaking split, and in recent matches LNG has shown some flaws. That being said, there is no team I can think of in the world which may be an easier win than Rogue Warriors at this point. And in all fairness Iwandy has a 3.2 KDA and a 70% team kill participation which is really solid. LNG just has been a lower kill team throughout the split but it is important to note Rogue Warriors has the second highest death totals with 562. Iwandy and Light should get their points today.

Value Pick: Kellin (NS: $5,200) 

Team

Favorite: LNG ($5,800) This feels like too easy of a pick. Rogue Warriors has accomplished the most difficult in both having the worst early game and mid/late game ratings as well as being -1622 gold down on average at 15 minutes. Rogue is exceptional at picking really poor early game fights and then slowly bleeding out through the rest of the game. I envision this game being won around dragon 2-3 with an LNG teamfight and then Rogue dragging their feet the rest of the match. 

Value Pick: Hanwha Life Esports ($5,400)

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

Captain (x1.5): XUN ($11,100)

Alternate: deokdam ($11,100)

Top: Ale ($6,000)

Jungle: Arthur ($6,600)

Alternate: Peanut ($6,600)
Mid: Rookie ($7,600)

ADC: Light ($8,000)

Alternate: Deft ($7,600)

Support: Lucas ($5,800)

Team: KT Rolster ($4,800)