LPL/LCK Slate March 18th, 2021

(-180) Thunder Talk Gaming v Rogue Warriors (+140)

(-350) Team WE v Bilibili Gaming (+250)

(+175) Gen.G v DWG Kia (-230)

(-230) Hanwha Life Esports v KT Rolster (+290)

With the exception of TT and BLG, each of these teams have only 3 more games to get to their final positioning before the Spring Playoffs. Gen.G versus DWG Kia could very well be a glimpse into a possible LCK Spring Finals while the BLG v Team WE matchup could be an early round matchup in the LPL playoffs if BLG can pull ahead of IG within their last 2 matches. Let’s take a look at the matches we have for today! Let’s get after it! 

Game #1 Thunder Talk Gaming v Rogue Warriors 

Cann’s Pick: Thunder Talk Gaming

Cann’s Breakdown: This will be a tough match to watch with how poorly both sides have played this year. In the top five players in terms of kills TT has four of them. The biggest weakness of Thunder Talk is their inability to close out games. Against better teams they get out pressured and find themselves taking bad fights. Luckily for them in this match Rogue Warriors tends to be without a pulse at all. 

Game #2: Team WE v Bilibili Gaming

Cann’s Pick: Team WE

Cann’s Breakdown: Team WE is a contender for the LPL throne but they will need to prove it here. BLG historically are a very hit or miss team. They will roll over a team like RNG but then fall to a team like V5. BLG is volatile but if WE controls the pace and map movement, look for a 2-0 here. 

Game #3: Gen.G v DWG Kia

Cann’s Pick: DWG Kia

Cann’s Breakdown: This will be cannot miss League of Legends. In their first meeting it was a 2-1 series win for DWG and one of the Gen.G losses they actually had a lead over the league leaders. This is my possible upset of the slate and especially with Gen.G playing into DWG, they are going to be very low ownership. Look out for the battle in the bot lane between Ruler and Ghost. It will make getting up at like 3 a.m worth it.  

Game #4: Hanwha Life Esports v KT Rolster

Cann’s Pick: Hanwha Life Esports

Cann’s Breakdown: This is the opportunity for HLE to slide into their rightful spot as second best team in the LCK. If Gen.G loses and HLE wins, they will slide into sole ownership in this spot. They are explosive  and KT Rolster is barely hanging onto their 6th spot at 5-9. While HLE have a tendency to drop silly games, I think the expectation is a 2-0 for the favorites here. 

Fantasy Value Breakdown

Captain

Favorite: Chovy (HLE: $11,700) Even with a team record of 10-5, this is your kill leader in the mid lane for the LCK (138). He is playing into Ucal from KT Rolster who has a whopping 79 kills on the season. Chovy makes up 25% of the LPL’s most bloody team and is consistently involved in their team fights and early game skirmishes (69% team kill participation). Safe pick up and not even the most expensive on the slate.  

Value Pick: ShowMaker (DWG: $10,800)

Top Lane

Favorite: Breathe (WE: $6,800) Breathe is in a four way tie for second most kills among LPL top laners (81). I think what the difference is between the LPL and LCK is the aggression and attention in the top lane. While you have some really quality top laners at the very top of the LCK, you just don’t see the same aggression out of them. Breathe has a 5.5 KDA (highest in the LPL) and has a gold lead on average of +155 at 10 minutes in Team WE’s matches. Great pick and I love this here into a struggling BLG. 

Value Pick: Chelizi (TT: $6,200) 

Jungle

Favorite: Arthur (HLE: $6,800) While Arthur has taken a step back in terms of kills from the beginning of the split, his ability to impact the map has gotten better. He has 92 kills and 173 assists and averaging a gold and experience lead at 10 minutes. He dropped 69 FP in his matchup against DWG and has had upwards of 96 this season. 

Value Pick: Meteor (BLG: $6,400) 

Mid Lane

Favorite: Shanks (WE: $7,600) Shanks is the safest pick on this slate. BLG is currently a dumpster fire and Team WE hasn’t lost since their match against JDG in early February. Shanks won’t pour out a ton of kills but he plays safe (53 deaths) and a decent amount of assists (about 7 per game). In their latest match against Suning, he dropped over 100 fantasy points and Suning are performing at a much higher level than BLG right now. 

Value Pick: Bdd (GEN: $6,000)  

ADC

Favorite: Jiumeng (WE: $8,000) This is the real carry for WE. He is 5th in the LPL among bot laners in terms of kills (137), second in assists (171), and has a 31% team kill share percentage. Aiming just hasn’t been what BLG had hoped he would be and in most cases BLG win from the early game of Meteor and Biubiu carrying Aiming into the late game. Look at the early game in this matchup and look for Jiumeng to bury Aiming.

Value Pick: Ghost (DWG: $7,600)

Support

Favorite: Vsta (HLE: $5,600) He is averaging 52.6 FPPG and leads all supports with 339 assists.this split. The KT support (Zzus) has almost 80 fewer assists. This is the bloodiest team in the LCK and I think they will force KT Rolster into fights they do not want to take. Vsta and Arthur will roam the map together fairly early and look to make plays around dragon and mid lane. 

Value Pick: BeryL (DWG: $4,800)

Team

Favorite: Hanwha Life Esports ($5,600)  I feel the most comfortable with these odds. I think there is an outside chance Gen.G come to play tomorrow against DWG and Team WE has dropped a few matches they had no business missing (though Team WE would be another solid choice). HLE is one of 5 teams in the LCK with a positive Mid to late game rating and has a gold advantage at 15 min of +1054 (2nd highest in the LCK). 

Value Pick: Gen.G ($4,400)

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

Captain (x1.5): Ghost ($11,400)

Alternate: Shanks ($11,400)

Top: Chelizi ($6,200)

Jungle: Arthur ($6,800)

Alternate: Meteor ($6,400)
Mid: Chovy ($7,800)

ADC: Deft ($7,800)

Alternate: SamD ($7,400)

Support: BeryL ($5,800)

Team: DWG Kia ($5,200)