League of Legends European Championships (LEC): June 27
Ed Cann guides you through Saturday's League of Legends European Championship (LEC) Series for esports DFS contests.
The time for new blood at the top of the LEC is now. With the old guard in Fnatic, G2, and Origen dropping games and MAD Lions and Rogue surging past them; it appears the “Match of the Week” should be between MAD Lions and Rogue. Look for more outstanding plays and unique picks as this week will have some of the closest games the whole split.
Game #1: Team Vitality versus SK Gaming
Cann’s Pick: SK Gaming
Game #2: Misfits versus Excel Esports
Cann’s Pick and lock of the week: Misfits
Game #3: Origen versus Schalke 04
Cann’s Pick: Origen
Game #4: MAD Lions versus Rogue
Cann’s Pick: MAD Lions
Game #5: G2 Esports versus Fnatic
Cann’s Pick: G2 Esports
Fantasy Value Breakdown
Cann’s Starting Lineup for 6/27
$50,000 out of the $50,000 salary cap
Captain (x1.5 Points): Kobbe (Misfits)
Top: Dan Dan (Misfits)
Jungle: Trick (SK Gaming)
Mid: ZaZee (SK Gaming)
ADC: Carzzy (MAD Lions)
Support: Kaiser (MAD Lions)
Captain (1.5x Points)
Tier 1: Upset (Origen/$12,600): This pick is all about the matchup difference. Schalke 04’s ADC situation is an actual disaster while Upset has performed admirably in both their wins and losses. On top of that, Origen has faced all of the top tier teams thus far and Upset has kept his value high.
Value Pick: Kobbe (Misfits/$11,400): Kobbe was a great pick up on Friday scoring 45+ points into Team Vitality. Today he squares up against an arguably worse bottom lane from Excel in Patrik and Tore. While Excel picked up their second win against Schalke 04, I do not see that as the beginning of a run for this team. I like what Kobbe brings to the table and expect that he can score you big points while you save some cash for other positions.
Tier 1: Alphari (Origen/$7,000): Look for the Origen versus Schalke match up to draw a lot of recommendations. Even in their loss to MAD Lions on Friday, Alphari was a nightmare on the Kayle pick. Odoamne and Schalke have had about as bad of a start as you can possibly have and I can see some changes coming for that organization soon. Look to snatch up points from Schalke 04’s suffering with Alphari and his 4.25 KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio).
Value Pick: jenax (SK Gaming/$6,000): I really like this match up for this value. He and Team Vitality’s top laner are ranked 7th and 6th respectively. This means for a role that may not earn as many points as others, you can have a relatively close matchup for very cheap. You would pick the jenax over Cabochard because I expect SK Gaming should beat Team Vitality so the winning bonus will be crucial.
Tier 1: Xerxe (Origen/$7,400): I feel like I keep circling around to this matchup. The other high valued jungler (G2’s Jankos) is playing a much better team. I generally do not like Xerxe as a jungler, he plays very slowly which I argue is not as efficient. What Xerxe does well is his focus on winning lanes and you see that in the amount of assists he usually gets in a game. His play almost makes you want to pick up other Origen players or Origen as a team.
Value Pick: Razork (Misfits/$6,800): I almost picked Trick from SK Gaming but I really think Razork is just a better mechanically skilled player, thus worth the extra $200. I also have more confidence in Misfits beating Excel Esports thus, you should pick up the winning points bonus. Razork has proven that he can play top tier junglers in Lee Sin and Sett. So as long as Misfits puts him on a meta champion, he should rack up good points.
Tier 1: ZaZee (SK Gaming/$7,000): There are a lot of overpriced midlaners for today and you shouldn’t get sucked into them. Those like Nukeduck, Caps, and Humanoid are either overpriced for their production or into tough competition. ZaZee has shown that he can play a critical role in the success of his team. Milica (Team Vitality’s Mid) is at best forgettable most matches. I would love to see ZaZee on the Azir and watch him in mid/late game teamfights.
Value Pick: Special (Excel Esports/$6,000): I am not particularly sold on Special, but Febiven does have his bad game every few matches. I think Special could have a sneaky good game into Febiven and Misfits have shown they invest more resources bottom for Kobbe (Misfits ADC) which gives Special an opportunity to shine.
Tier 1: Crownshot (SK Gaming/$7,800): Crownshot has silently been pushing his value up and up. SK Gaming wins off the back of Crownshot’s late game damage and it is so apparent in the matches they have lost. When Cornwshot gets behind, SK cannot right the ship. I think Crownshot will ROLL over Comp and it won’t even be close. If you picked one of my big price tag captain choices, Crownshot will be a solid choice for ADC.
Value Pick: Carzzy (MAD LIons/$7,200): This pick up for how well he has performed is wild. MAD Lions are the best team in the standings tied with Rogue. MAD Lions should win this match if Rogue doesn’t get the picks they want in draft. I have a lot of respect for Hans sama but I think the combination of Crazy and Kaiser will be too much for Rogue and the bot lane of Hans sama and Vander.
Tier 1: Kaiser (MAD Lions/$5,600): The fact that Kaiser is not the most expensive support for today is insulting. There is no other support I would be willing to spend over 5k on. Kaiser not only is oppressive in lane, but also is proficient in roaming around the map and has an amazing knack for finding great openings for team fights. Look for Kaiser to not only move MAD Lions to a win, but establish dominance over Hans sama and Vander while doing it.
Value Pick: Tore (Excel Esports/$4,400): This pick is purely a discount pick. If your lineup is strapped for cash, Tore may be a good pick if you haven’t loaded your team full of Misfit’s players. Tore and Excel have had cleaner games in both of their wins and losses. IN the beginning of the split it looked like the botlane of Excel was going to just get ran out of the gym in every match but I think Tore and Patrik have been a glimmer of hope for this squad.
Tier 1: Origen ($5,800): Going up against the worst team in the league will get you such a steep pricetag. With that in mind I would normally put Origen in the top echelon of teams along with Fnatic, G2 Esports, Mad Lions, and Rogue. Without there being guarantees in life… Origen will win this game. How much they will win by over Schalke 04 will (without there being any guarantees in life…) be a WIDE margin.
Value Pick: MAD Lions ($4,800): Most will look at this matchup and think it is a coin flip. The #1 and #2 teams in the league square off and a lot of people have faith in Rogue. I don’t. MAD Lions have shown creativity and aggression while Rogue has shown with a very linear form of League of Legends. Call it bias or call it a deeper level of understanding of the game, but I fully expect MAD Lions to win this match.
*Carzzy and Kaiser ($12,800): If there is a bot lane to trust and get a passion for watching, it is the botlane of MAD Lions. Crazy has a KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio) of 5 and Kaiser has a KDA of 9.33. This duo gets kills and does it with a level of aggression that is so much fun to watch. They dive in, push the limit of how to play the game, and in turn keep enemies staggering back in most matchups.
*Trick and ZaZee ($13,600): SK Gaming should be able to handle Team Vitality today. Trick is a good team oriented jungler and what adds more value to these two is the fact that Trick LOVES to go mid. Look for Trick to help ZaZee get ahead, and help double the points you get for every ZaZee kill.
Top Picks: Alphari, Zazee, Nuckduck
All of these players have favorable matchups as well as their teams many times rely on them to win matches. I would expect the same today and generally are safe picks to ensure maximum amounts of points.
Top Value: Carzzy, Hans sama, Crownshot
There is more of a risk to these picks but there could be a benefit to the overall salary for your team. Normally high performers who find themselves in tough matchups for today. If you have faith in any of these players, they may be worth the pick up.
A Game by Game Breakdown
Team Vitality versus SK Gaming
In my heart I feel like this should be an easy game to pick but the more I look at this on paper, it becomes more difficult. SK Gaming (4-2) had looked through their first 4 games that they had corrected course from the Spring Split where they were synonymous with being a free win. I had doubted them and questioned them and then last Saturday I finally put my faith in them, only to watch them be metaphorically pantsed by Excel Esports. On the other side, Team Vitality (2-4) seems to be about the same as SK. Team Vitality was the only team with a worst record through the first half of the year compared to SK but this year there have been glimmers of hope. Comparing the two teams strength of schedules SK’s opponents have 44% WP while Team Vitality’s opponents are at 56% through the first two weekends. SK has had an easier path to this point but I think the growth from Team Vitality just isn’t there yet. Either way, I am probably avoiding picking too heavily from this matchup.
Cann’s Winner: SK Gaming
Most Valuable Player Crownshot-ADC-SK Gaming: If one was an SK Gaming fan, Crownshot would be a player to get excited about. On the two big power picks (Ezreal and Aphelios) in this meta, He has over an 8 KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio). Many times in games he needs to be able to position/peel for himself (This just means he can keep himself safe) which is a huge attribute. Most players in the ADC role need to be babysat and coddled but Crownshot is proving that he’s a strong independent ADC and don’t need any coddling. Seriously, I would say there are some question marks with SK Gaming and this match up, but Crownshot is NOT one of them.
Misfits versus Excel Esports
This is the game that you should really look to as the biggest gap in skill and performance. Misfits (3-3) have faced some of the toughest competition in Fnatic, Rogue, and Origen. In most of their games they have been competitive and in the Fnatic loss they were poised to win if not for a miracle play out of Fnatic. Excel Esports (2-4) has only gotten their win off an overconfident SK Gaming side. I think Kobbe continues to torch the LEC, he currently has a 5.5 KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio) and has faced off against the likes of Rekkles, Upset, and Hans sama thus far. I think Excel’s only way into this game is through their own ADC in Patrik. If he is relegated to a more utility ADC, it is over and Misfits wins. If Patrik can get on a late game scaling champion, Excel have a shot. Watch the bot lane in this game, that is where the action will be.
Cann’s Winner: Misfits
Most Valuable Player: Kobbe-ADC-Misfits: The LEC has three tiers of ADCs and Kobbe flirts between being a Tier 1 and Tier 2 ADC. This game should help pad his stats for being a Tier 1 ADC. Excel Esports’ support (Tore) is having an abysmal split with a staggering 1.92 KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio) and will continue to struggle up against Misfits.
Origen versus Schalke 04
Well the Schalke (0-6) memes of being 0-4 were made obsolete on Saturday by losing again… So I guess that is a positive? Other than that, not much to be happy about with the football club backed esports team. The puzzling thing is on paper, this team should be pretty good or at the very least not horrific. It is apparent how bad they are based on the fact that they have a 10 man roster (Only 5 people can play in a match) and 6 of them play 2 different roles (4 ADC and 2 Support). They are the American Football equivalent of having four QBs and two Left Guards on your team and all of them suck. Origen (3-3) is a pretty solid squad but there are still some question marks on playing with the same quality against all of their opponents. Two of Origen’s wins came against Fnatic and G2, which many analysts consider to be 1 and 2 in the region. The problem is they then drop stupid games to teams like Misfits and SK Gaming who on paper don’t have the same power as Origen. I think Origen should take this match but I am really looking for their top (Alphari) and mid (Nukeduck) laners to make more of an impact in this statement win. I think this could be another match to pick up some players from for your daily drafts.
Cann’s Winner: Origen
Most Valuable Player: Upset-ADC-Origen: Welcome to the week of the ADCs I suppose. I think Nukeduck (Mid laner for Origen) will have a statement win in this game, I think the uncertainty in Schalke 04’s bot lane makes Upset an overall better pick. Upset has an over 8 KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio) and has really shown an ability to play Aphelios well. Look for Origen to try to get him onto that pick early in their draft.
MAD Lions versus Rogue
There are times as a fan you need to pinch yourself to prevent yourself from falling in love too much with a team. You start selling yourself more and more about the players on that team and why that team has no flaws. I am pinching myself right now with MAD Lions (5-1). I love their playstyle, aggressive nature, and ability to play as both individuals and as a team. *Pinches self* I think Carzzy and Kaiser may be one of the most consistent bot lanes and Humanoid is in the discussion for top 3 mid laner. I think a lot of this depends on whether or not opposing teams let them dictate the pace of the game and outside of G2, every team has. I think this becomes an issue when they face Rogue. Rogue (4-1) also works best when they set the tone for the match and can dictate the game. The difference is that they do not need to rely on wild early game aggression as much as MAD Lions does. I look for Rogue to want to let Hans sama and Vander scale into the late game while Larssen works to put pressure on Humanoid mid. This game could very easily go either way.
Cann’s Winner: MAD Lions
Most Valuable Player: Humanoid-Mid-MAD Lions: One of the ways Rogue has been able to pick up 4 wins thus far is because while teams have invested in shutting down the Rogue bot lane, their mid laner (Larssen) has used those openings to gain massive advantages. If MAD Lions win this match, it is going to be because Humanoid kept Larssen in check. Humanoid currently has maintained a respectable KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio) of 4 and has already played against some of the hardest competition in the LEC.
G2 Esports versus Fnatic
I would imagine the people who are actively going to pick from this game are people who are either fans of G2 Esports/Fnatic or people who see high price tags and think it's worth it. I am not really sure if it is worth picking up any players from this game, especially with both teams really struggling getting out of the starting blocks this split. That being said, watch this match. This is going to be highly entertaining to see the historically two best teams from Europe go head to head. G2 Esports (3-3) have seemed to right the ship in the last weekend of play while Fnatic (3-3) went 0-2 last weekend with some of the worst drafting I have seen in a while. I think a very underrated matchup between these two teams will come in the top lane between G2’s Wunder and Fnatic’s Bwipo. Wunder has been a staple in European League of Legends while Bwipo is only in his second year of playing professionally but both players have similar strengths. I would expect these players to both choose aggressive dueling brusiers and try to establish a lead in laning phase that can be transitioned into late game team fights.
Cann’s Winner: G2 Esports
Most Valuable Player: Jankos-Jungle-G2 Esports: While I am not sure about the baseline amount of points Jankos will earn from this game, I think he will be the reason they beat Fnatic. I don’t trust Fnatic’s drafts (Picking specific champions for players to play) and in many categories Jankos is a better junlger than Selfmade. Selfmade is a little flashier in his plays but I think Jankos has a firmer understanding of how to win. He does a great job controlling objectives and he has a deeper champion pool to pick from which means he can fit any need that G2 will have going into this game.