NASCAR DFS: Pocono Green 225 Playbook & Example Lineups

It wouldn’t be a loaded NASCAR weekend without weather concerns. Currently it’s slated to be a bit wet Saturday and Sunday in Pocono so we’ll see what happens. There aren’t a ton of laps in this race, we’ll actually have fewer laps than Talladega last weekend. We normally get 100 laps for Pocono, but that goes down to 90 this week for a 225-mile race.

This track is the Tricky Triangle and all three turns are banked at different angles. In the last four Xfinity races only nine drivers have failed to finish due to wrecking out. That’s not to say we won’t see some drivers not finish due to mechanical issues, but we likely won’t see as many wrecks this weekend so it’s good to target for DFS. We also might be a little bored this weekend. We could see some laps led dominators here. The 2016 race was limited to just 53 laps, but Kyle Larson registered 27 laps led. But over the last three years there have typically been just two drivers each race that lead over 20 laps. And those who get to the front take advantage of the clean air and also collect fastest laps.

We also have another Dash 4 Cash race this weekend and the qualifiers may confuse you.  The Talladega race saw Justin Haley, Ross Chastain, Jeb Burton, and Austin Cindric finish in the Top 4. They were followed by Brett Moffit, Anthony Alfredo, AJ Allmendinger, Gray Gaulding and Alex Labbe. However, it’s Labbe that will join Haley, Chastain, and Cindric in the Dash 4 Cash field on Sunday. Burton doesn’t have a full-time ride despite looking great at Talladega and Kaulig Racing doesn’t have plans for Dinger to run Pocono. Add in other circumstances for other drivers not being eligible or not having a ride for Sunday’s race (Snider is in the 21-car, not Alfredo) and bam, Bob’s your uncle, and Labbe who finish ninth at Talladega is now in the Dash 4 Cash.

One final note on this race, it’s difficult to find cheap value. DraftKings really priced up some drivers we’d love to get at a cheaper price tag. So for that, I’m not too keen on playing Cash games for this race. I’m a bigger fan of making GPP builds for the Xfinity race and then play the Cup race for Cash games since DraftKings already released those prices prior to knowing the starting order.

MCI for Sunday’s Xfinity Race

GPP: 6.5/10

Cash: 3.5/10

Dash 4 Cash Driver Pool

Ross Chastain ($10,400; Starting P5) – Chastain’s got some solid momentum coming into this race. Since the season re-started he has six Top 10 finishes in seven races and he’s actually found his way to the front quite a few times as well. He’s managed to lead at least 20 laps in three of the last six races and the history at Pocono isn’t awful, but it’s not mind blowing either. Over his last three races at Pocono he’s kind of held serve and barely improved on position. But the motivation will be there Sunday so he should have a solid race.

Austin Cindric ($10,200; Starting P9) – In two races at Pocono, Cindric has started third twice and finished seventh and fourth. Sure he’s gone backward a little bit, but he still consistently runs in the Top 10. He’s looked fantastic the last few weeks in the 22-car for Penske and he’s a clear favorite this week to win the race with no Cup drivers eligible to run. He’ll be incredibly chalky and expensive. He’ll be good chalk to eat this weekend.

Justin Haley ($8,400; Starting P6) – Haley’s been great since the season started back up. The 11-car has been incredibly fast and competitive. He won last weekend at Talladega following a Cup series win last July at Daytona. Haley has three Top 6 finishes in his last four races and he has a Top 10 finish under his belt at Pocono. In six of the last seven races he’s lucked into a Top 4 starting spot, but starting P6 on Sunday isn’t awful and he should run up front for more of this race.

Alex Labbe ($9,200; Starting P19) – Labbe might be the dark horse for the race today. Nobody should be too surprised by the fact Labbe is priced up due to his position differential. He has a Top 20 finish under his belt at Pocono, but he could easily finish in the Top 10 this weekend with the motivation of an extra $100,000. He hasn’t made a ton of my early lineup builds, but I’ll make an emphasis to fit him into some more to get the exposure.

Remaining Driver Pool

Justin Allgaier ($10,700; Starting P4) – Allgaier has a mixed bag of results at Pocono (some bad, some good). He’s finished 2^nd and 11^th, he’s also led some laps along the way, but he’s also wrecked twice. And that’s kind of been his M.O. lately. It’s hard to trust him, but his car has looked better. I’ll continue to get exposure to him with the added caveat that I know he’s a risk to disappoint in Stage Three.

Chase Briscoe ($10,000; Starting P3) – Briscoe’s only run in two Pocono races and his accident two years ago really ruins his average finish. Last year he started 12^th and finished 3^rd. He’s looked fantastic this year despite a finish outside the Top 15 at Talladega, but we can’t really hold that against him. He has a solid starting spot on Sunday and he could come away with a victory. If he can get the lead, he could run away with dominator laps.

Noah Gragson ($9,800; Starting P1) – Of course Gragson’s back on the table again this week. How can he not be? He hasn’t finished worse than 11^th since the season re-started and Sunday’s 10^th place finish broke a streak of four straight Top 5 finishes for Gragson. He’s finding his way to the front at every track. He’s led a lap at every track this year except Auto Club back in February. And on Sunday we have him starting on the pole. Last year he started 15^th and finished 6^th at Pocono so it goes without saying, Gragson’s a solid play this week no matter in all contest formats.

Daniel Hemric ($9,400; Starting P8) – Hemric’s Xfinity results may not jump off the page, but Pocono is a solid track for him. Two years ago he finished third at the Triangle, and ninth the year before. Last year he ran in the Cup series for Pocono which include two extra races under his belt. In the June race he started 23^rd and finished 13^th, and then in the July race he started 17^th and finished 7^th. While his time in the Cup series was a dud, he proved to maneuver his way through Pocono pretty well. He’ll have a favorable starting spot Sunday so he’s a sneaky good play that I’m hoping to have more exposure to than the field.

Myatt Snider ($9,000; Starting P2) – I’m a sucker for Snider or whoever is in the 21-car. And sure enough, Snider’s back in the 21-car for RCR and he’s starting on the front row. He’s a solid play this week in GPP contests, but he can only go backward. Plus, he’s starting on the front row with Noah Gragson who I like a little more to lead the early laps. The PD sucks, but I do think he might be under-owned.

Josh Williams ($8,800; Starting P13) – Williams is normally a pretty good position differential play, but never is that more true than at Pocono. In three Xfinity races at the Tricky Triangle he has an average start of 29.3 and an average finish of 21.3 and he’s moved up at least six spots in every race. He’ll start inside the Top 24 for Sunday’s race and his teammate, Alex Labbe, will start in the same range and is running in the Dash 4 Cash. I’m optimistic there’s some upside for the DGM team and hope Williams and Labbe work together to move up.

Jeremy Clements ($8,600; Starting P21) – Matt brought up a good point about Aric Almirola on the podcast. When he starts inside the Top 10 he goes backward, but when he starts in the Top 20 he moves up. Which makes sense since Almirola’s a driver that falls in the 10-15 range in terms of ranking drivers. We’ve seen Clements start high over the last two races, but ultimately go backwards.  In four of the last five races when Clements has started outside the Top 20, he’s finished inside the Top 13. The downside is that he’s priced up this week so we really need him to finish well to return 43 points for 5X value. He’s finished inside the Top 20 in his last three races here, but of all the drivers chasing 40+ points I feel pretty good about him getting there as we’ve seen him run inside the Top 10 frequently in the last few races as well.

Brett Moffitt ($8,200; Starting P18) – After Moffitt’s disastrous weekend a couple weeks ago in Miami he followed it up with a Top 5 finish at Talladega last weekend. He’s a guy that can be a slate breaker if he gets up to the Top 5, but it just depends on what kind of driver we get. He lacks experience here and he needs a Top 10 finished for a 5X return at minimum.

Tommy Joe Martins ($7,900; Starting P31) – I love the starting spot for Tommy Joe Martins this week, but I really hate DraftKings for stripping us of the value. Nearly $8K is a stupid price tag for Tommy Joe Martins. But what I do like about him is that he’s shown the ability to start outside the Top 30, but finish inside the Top 20. He needs to move up and finish in the 17-18 range to get you 5X value. I think he can get there, but I’m not sold that it’s a lock necessarily. Keep in mind he only has an average finish of 27.0 in two races here and he only has 90 laps to move up on Sunday. But I like the equipment and speed he’s been showing lately. The price sucks unfortunately.

Riley Herbst ($7,700; Starting P24) – I’m very curious as to what we get from Herbst this weekend. Owner points allowed him to start inside the Top 10 for so long, but a string of rough races have pushed him outside the Top 12 and now he has the worst starting spot of cars in the 13-24 range. He lacks experience here, but in seven races since the season re-started he’s finished in the Top 18 in five of those runs. Now he killed value at those tracks because he went backwards, but the starting spot should aid him this week so I’m on board with the upside here. A Top 18 finish here would return 5X value on Sunday.

Brandon Brown ($7,300; Starting P22) – With the exception of the second Homestead race, Brown hasn’t finished outside the Top 15 since racing started back up at Darlington at the end of May. Last year at Pocono he started 27^th and finished 13^th. I’m hoping the starting spot lends itself to more PD this week because he does seem to be a driver that’s consistently flying under the radar and he has the ability to finish in the Top 10.

Bayley Currey ($6,700; Starting P35) – Over Currey’s last five races he hasn’t finished worse than 26^th and in three of those races he actually finished in the Top 20. He needs to finish about 22^nd or 23^rd to return 5X value at this price tag, but he’s starting P35 and could easily get up to 20^th come race’s end. He’s never run at Pocono so he does carry some risk, but the starting spot is friendly enough where he could have no issues moving up.

Joe Graf Jr. ($5,700; Starting P25) – We normally don’t get Graf this cheap, but we’ll certainly take it. Graf’s a young driver that can easily finish in the Top 20 and possibly sneak into the Top 15 as well. I am a little concerned with the lack of experience here, I can’t state that enough because this is a field where some of the cheaper drivers don’t have much experience here. But a Top 20 finish returns 5X value and he could sneak up higher for extra gravy.

Vinnie Miller ($5,500; Starting P29) – If you can’t afford Graf, then you can go to Vinnie Miller who at least carries more experience at Pocono. Miller hasn’t showcased the greatest PD at this track, but last year he started 33^rd and finished 25^th. If he can gain eight spots once again at this track and finish 21^st then that’s well over 5X value. The issue with Miller is that he’s just as likely to help your lineup as he is to kill it. His DFS profile on DraftKings features a lot of variance in scoring, but I like the starting spot for him this week as will the field.

BJ McLeod ($5,200; Starting P23) – It is incredibly difficult to find value on this slate. It absolutely sucks. But McLeod at just $5,200 could be a nice value play if he just moves up three spots and finishes 20^th. That’ll be 5X value and if you can pair him with the dominators in this race and other drivers that move up through the field then he could pay off pretty well. He’s cooled off lately, but typically McLeod is a guy that gets a lot out of his car.

Jesse Little ($4,900; Starting P14) – Little could be a very sneaky play in GPP’s this weekend. We’ve seen him priced up over $8,000 just a few weeks ago and now he’s under $5K. He’s never raced at Pocono in Xfinity, but he’s rolling right now with four straight Top 20 finishes. The starting spot will scare some people away, but he finished 13^th at Talladega last week and 15^th at Miami the week before. He’s so cheap that he can actually afford to fade a few spots back and still return 5X value. More so, he provides a ton of salary relief to load up on more expensive drivers and target dominators.

Example Lineups

Cash Game Lineup

GPP Lineup 1

GPP Lineup 2