NASCAR DFS Playbook: Drydene 200

NASCAR heads to our nation’s first official state in Dover, Delaware this weekend for the Monster Mile. This hasn’t historically been one of my better tracks to read in terms of DFS, but to be honest, I’m feeling pretty confident this weekend. There is a little bit to breakdown here. For starters, we have Ty Gibbs back this week in the 54-car. We made the right call last week in going light on him and this is another track where it’ll be tough to gauge his ownership, but I anticipate I’ll be slightly heavier on him than I was last week. Additionally, Justin Haley will not be running in this race due to COVID-19 protocols. Zane Smith will step into his ride at $8,000 on DraftKings and he’ll be scored pretty high (P9) and start from the rear. That’s not ideal.

But Dover is a one-mile, high-banked track and position is important here. Races off pit road will be vital and you’ll see the back markers fall laps down easily. We have 200 laps on tap for Saturday’s race. The stages will be broken up into 45-45-110 segments and there’s a competition caution on lap 20. 200 laps mean we’ll have 140 dominator points to plan for so definitely approach this race with a two-dominator mindset. After re-watching last year’s races we should look for the outside line to be the preferred line. It’ll be in the low-to-mid-70’s in Dover tomorrow and the track conditions will be much warmer. Once they get going and rubber is laid down on the track the outside groove will likely be a popular choice on restarts.

And one final note, I will NOT be in the NASCAR DFS chat leading up to lock. I have the second round of a job interview tomorrow afternoon so I won't be around in the chat until maybe 6:00pm ET. Fortunately, Matt will be stepping in to cover for me in the chat to help out with all your questions.

Driver Pool

Matching the right combo of drivers in this $10,000+ range will be key. There’s an argument to play all of them really. I’m going to break down each driver not just in terms of track history, but with the thought in mind of how you can approach lineups with them.

Ty Gibbs ($11,500; Starting P14) If I’m being honest it’s much easier to just go down to Cindric and save yourself $500. That alone might be why folks go a touch lighter on Gibbs this weekend. It’s easier to save $500 and gain two extra spots of PD with Cindric, the defending Xfinity series champion. I don’t know why Gibbs is the most expensive driver by $500 this weekend. He should be one of the most expensive, but pricing him up at a track that can be tough for newbies is bold (he did win Friday's ARCA race though). However, despite guessing correctly on exposure last week I’ll still mix him in to some builds. He obviously wants redemption for last week’s mistakes but he does need to get some dominator points with a win to return value. Gibbs is in play in all formats this weekend, but I don’t consider him a lock by any means.

Austin Cindric ($11,000; Starting P16) I’m pretty fond of pairing Cindric with any combination of Allgaier, Gragson, Hemric, or maybe even Allmendinger this week. Cindric has PD on his side and if you pair him with one of those drivers then Cindric can get you PD in stage one while the other driver can possibly collect dominator points. Cindric/Allgaier lineups will be popular this weekend so if you go that route just try to not constantly land on the chalk drivers that the rest of the field will have also. Given the PD and upside to get out in front in stages two and three, Cindric is a great play in Cash and GPP formats. Take solace in the fact he’s never finished outside the top ten at Dover in six career races and he has three straight top three finishes.

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,700; Starting P7) Allmendinger will likely carry the least amount of ownership of the five drivers over $10K and that’s probably where I’ll land on this spectrum as well. You either pay up for the PD and potential dominators or you pay down for the early dominators and hope they sustain their track position throughout. Dinger hasn’t run at Dover since returning to Xfinity but he still has plenty of Cup experience at this track and as always his car will be fast. I’m mixing him into some builds for the sake of getting exposure, but there are other drivers I’m targeting in GPP’s.

Justin Allgaier ($10,400; Starting P2) Allgaier will be a popular dominator on Saturday. His resume at Dover speaks for itself. In seven races since September of 2017, he has six finishes inside the top three including two wins. He routinely finds his way to the front here and it helps that he’ll be on the front row on Saturday. In my 20 Happy Hour builds I’ll gladly mix him in, but if I’m being honest, I don’t know if I’d play him in single-entry contests. Other players will flock to him and if anything happens to his ride or if he miraculously doesn’t dominate like most anticipate, then I’ll take the leverage over the field of not having him in my SE lineups.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,100; Starting P30) JHN is an absolute wild card on Saturday. If you’re paying this price you’re paying for the driver, not the ride. The silver lining is that lesser drivers have piloted this car to decent finishes this year but remember this isn’t like Kyle Busch or Martin Truex Jr. coming down to Xfinity. In theory, Nemechek is coming up in competition and won’t have elite equipment compared to the field like he does in the Truck series. Now he has plenty of experience in the Xfinity Series, but this is different from the competition he’s run against the in Truck series. Truth be told, as of Friday night I may actually be lighter on JHN. I think he can get this car easily into the top 15, but top ten could be asking a little much? And plenty of folks will buy into JHN based on name recognition and if anything happens in his efforts to move up through the field then I’d rather just pay up for Gibbs or Cindric who offer more dominator upside. I might sprinkle him into two or three lineups and he’s easily in play for Cash games. You can easily go with an Allgaier/JHN stack in a GPP to collect dominator points early and let JHN gradually collect PD points if he can effortlessly move up. Again, that’ll likely be a popular pairing.

Best of the Rest

Noah Gragson ($9,900; Starting P3) Love Gragson this week. LOOOOOOOOVE Gragson this week. Last week when previewing Darlington we compared that track slightly to Dover in terms of banking and the style of racing we might see. Gragson went out and led 40 laps, had 16 fastest laps, and got a top five finish before a controversial DQ that was reversed so his finish stands. While he’s still hungry for his first win of the season, he’s been content in collecting bonuses via Dash 4 Cash and he’s once again qualified for this week’s race. He only has one top five at Dover, but he managed to find his way to the front in last year’s double-header so lead laps in both races. You can go so many routes in pairing Gragson with any of the five drivers above. I’m a little hesitant to pair him with Allgaier unless Gragson comes on strong later in the race to dominate laps while Allgaier gets the early bunch. Either way, it’s not a pairing I love working with.

Daniel Hemric ($9,400; Starting P1) You’re damn right I’m on board Hemric once again this week. He’s actually in one of my more favorite SE lineups at the moment. Hemric is finding his way to the front almost every week. In five of his last six races he’s led at least 18 laps and he’s mixing in fastest laps as well. This is the best equipment he’s ever had in his career and most people will gloss over him if they opt to play the more chalky option in Justin Allgaier who will be starting right next to him. In his last four races at Dover he’s finished fifth, seventh, third, and fourth and again he really wants his first career win. I’m not entirely convinced it happens on Saturday but he’s on the pole with a chance to lead easy laps early on. If he can simply garner a respectable finish then he’ll make for a nice GPP play with some early dominator points.

Jeb Burton ($8,300; Starting P13) Jeb’s a solid mid-range play this week. He started P27 last year at Dover and moved up 20 spots to finish seventh. He may be a “forgotten” driver this week with more expensive options offering more PD or dominator potential. He’s no stranger to winning or collecting a top five and he easily has that potential this week. I don’t think he wins, but there’s a clear and possible path for him to exceed 5X value as a lower-owned GPP play.

JJ Yeley ($8,100; Starting P31) Yeley’s gotten the most out of poor equipment this season. On Saturday he may get an equipment upgrade as he steps into the 23-car for Our Motorsports. Yeley moved up at least nine spots in each of his four races in the 17-car and as many as 20+ in a couple races as well. Last week he started 35^th and finished 21^st in a worse car. So all signs point to him doing pretty well if Our Motorsports shows up with the right setup. He only needs to finish 17^th to hit 5X value. I may be lighter than him on the field, not because I don’t like his upside, but he will be a popular play and it’ll largely be a leverage move for myself. That being said Tanner Berryhill got a top 20 last week with this ride and if Yeley runs a clean finish there’s no reason he can’t finish Top 15.

Riley Herbst ($7,900; Starting P20) I just can’t quit the guy at this price tag and this starting spot. It’s crazy too because Yeley might be the safer play but I still say Herbst is a top 10-12 driver in this series. It’s just been a rough start in his partnership with Stewart-Haas Racing. In three races here he’s finished ninth, sixth, and 15^th. He can finish 12^th and with a couple fastest laps he could hit 5X value with ease. I know he’s had some bad luck and some of the criticism towards him is warranted but this is a bit too cheap to pass over. Chase Briscoe got this ride to victory lane in one of the Dover races last season and while Herbst is a far cry from the driver Briscoe is, he can get a top ten here.

Landon Cassill ($7,700; Starting P37) We picked a good week to jump on Cassill last week and he paid off with about 5.5X value. I’m going back to the well despite the jump in his price tag. P37 in JD Motorsports equipment? Yes please! However, it’s worth noting that he’s switching rides with Ryan Vargas this weekend but regardless, it’s still JD Motorsports equipment. I’m not going to go crazy with exposure on Cassill because I do want to spread exposure around in this range quite a bit, but he’s firmly in play this weekend.

Ryan Sieg ($7,600; Starting P12) One of my favorite GPP plays this week. I know I tend to rib on Sieg because he typically wishes every race was about 10-15 laps shorter. He is no stranger to bad luck at the worst time. But he finished in the top 15 of both Dover races last season with a decent average running position. He’s coming in with some momentum as well with three top ten’s in his last four races. I’d be perfectly fine if he even held his position and simply didn’t wreck out. Ownership could also be very light on him, but the price tag returned to normal for this week’s race in Dover.

Brandon Brown ($6,900; Starting P19) Brown comes to us as the “nice” play of the week and this is right about where we like to see him start. It’s well known he gets the most out of his car and he finished 14^th and 16^th in the two Dover races a year ago. What I really like to see is that he had an average running position inside the top 15 for both races as well. If he can steal a top 15 here you’ll gladly take it and run. And if you subscribe to the theory that you don’t like targeting drivers starting too far back at a short track then Brown is the kind of value play you can look at too simply move up a couple spots.

Kyle Sieg ($5,700; Starting P35) Kyle Sieg makes his Xfinity debut coming up from the ARCA series where he’s had some decent showings and he does have a little experience at Dover. He’ll start P35 in the 90-car and BJ McLeod got a top 25 out of that ride last week at Darlington. I’m a little hesitant to go even over 15% with exposure on Sieg this week because it is in his debut. Keep in mind he’s used to racing against 19 other drivers basically. The field is basically doubling for him this week so while the PD and ride are appealing, don’t go overboard here with the exposure, but he’s worth sprinkling into some GPP’s.

Alex Labbe ($5,600; Starting P18) This price tag is a little baffling. He’s routinely in the $6K-$7K range and DK whiffed and brought him all the way down to $5,600? He’s returned 30+ DraftKings points in five races this year and he only needs to move up one or two spots to hit value. I’m not crazy about dumpster diving this week, but Labbe has a decent floor if he runs a clean race. In four races at Dover he’s finished 17^th, 19^th, 21^st, and 21^st with the top 20 runs coming last year. I’ll be scratching my head at this price for a while.

Tommy Joe Martins ($5,300; Starting P17) Tommy Joe’s been a stout top 20 machine this season. Similar to Labbe the price is so low likely due to starting position, but he’s not an awful GPP play who really just needs to hold his starting position to hit value. Dover’s been a pretty decent track for him as well. He finished 15^th here in the second race a year ago and like Labbe he basically just needs to hold his top 20 spot and he’ll be fine for your builds. He is prone to some bad luck at times so definitely spread your exposure out. Don’t go particularly heavy on any one driver in this range.

Jade Buford ($4,900; Starting P34) I don’t want to go this cheap but if you’re desperate you can throw a dart with Buford or even Timmy Hill. It seems like Buford either gains ten spots in PD and hits value or he finds himself caught in a wreck. I’d rather try and find the extra money for Labbe, but if you need to punt this low Buford’s an okay GPP punt. A top 25 would return value.

Timmy Hill ($4,600; Starting P22) On the podcast I alluded to Hill’s price tag and said it was almost too good to pass up. And then I looked at his track history and while I’ve tried to ignore track history this year, his is pretty tough to justify at the Monster Mile. Since 2015 he has just one finish in the top 25. But some will compare Dover to an elongated Bristol, which is a track Hill has run well at. Plenty of people are going to pivot down to Hill here as a cheap paydown and if you choose to go that route, more power to you because he’s simply salary relief. He’s not going to kill you if he goes backward because hopefully you spent up for five other drivers that can make up for his deficiencies. I won’t have as much exposure as I initially thought, but if I’m desperate and need a driver this cheap then you can go to Hill and hope he holds his spot.

Core Drivers