Highest Scoring Teams:
(by Implied Points & Spreads per KenPom)
Minnesota -- 79 Points (-14 vs. Nebraska)
UCF -- 74 Points (-9 vs. East Carolina)
Connecticut -- 73 Points (-7 vs. Tulane)
Houston -- 72 Points (-10 vs. Memphis)
Michigan State -- 72 Points (-4 vs. Ohio State)
Maryland -- 71 Points (-3 vs. Michigan)
Michigan -- 68 Points (+3 vs. Maryland)
Ohio State -- 68 Points (+4 vs. Michigan State)
TOP PLAYS
Daniel Oturu - Minnesota ($9,300 DK / $8,600 FD)
Minnesota fans were rightfully upset when their center was left off the Wooden Award ballot recently - but at least we can confidently play him in DFS today as of the more dominant big men in the country. Daniel Oturu leads the Big Ten in rebounds (11.6) and blocks (2.5) per game and he’s second in PPG (20.3) only to Iowa’s Luka Garza. His expensive price tag today is certainly warranted as he’s put up at least 22 points scored, 11 rebounds and 45 DK points in each of the last four games. Oturu is a force in the paint as a double-double machine and elite shot-blocker - and he should feast on an easy matchup today. Nebraska is the worst rebounding team in the conference with the second-worst defense - and their current 15-game losing streak is due in large part because opposing big men in the Big Ten dominate them.
Precious Achiuwa - Memphis ($8,700 DK / $8,400 FD)
Some people may be scared off of Precious Achiuwa after he was held to just 10 points, six rebounds and 24.5 DK points against Houston just a couple weeks ago. However, we shouldn’t put too much stock in that previous meeting and instead marvel at the usual dominance of Memphis’ freshman big man. Achiuwa is coming off two monster outings when he had 22 points, 22 rebounds and five blocks (62 DK points) vs. Tulane and then 14 points, 16 boards and five blocks/steals (47 DK points) against Wichita State. He’s back to getting a large shot volume in the Memphis offense and when he’s playing this good, not many players in the country can match his upside. Houston held Achiuwa in check last time, but we can expect a bounceback here in a game that would be huge for the Tigers’ tournament resume if they won.
Jalen Smith - Maryland ($8,500 DK / $8,000 FD)
The Terps’ big man has been an absolute stud over the last month or so and he should have no problem dominating at home in a favorable matchup today. For starters, Jalen Smith is averaging 40 DK points and a double-double over the last ten games - and in the past three, he’s averaging 17.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 41 DK points. Since mid-January, only once has Smith failed to score in double figures and/or record a double-double and that came on the road against Ohio State. Today, Smith and point guard Anthony Cowan will surely dominate the production in Maryland’s offense with a chance at a share of the Big Ten regular season title. Plus, the 6-foot-10 sophomore should have success against a Michigan defense that doesn’t defend opposing big men well and thus allow the majority of points in the interior. Smith should feast in this matchup and he’s a very safe pivot off of either Daniel Oturu or Precious Achiuwa as an expensive forward.
Cassius Winston - Michigan State ($8,200 DK / $7,100 FD)
One of the best seniors in college basketball will be playing the final home game of his career today - and this Senior Night narrative could be evidence enough for locking in Cassius Winston with how motivated he’ll likely be. Furthermore, Michigan State could clinch a share of the Big Ten regular season title with a win and we can bank on the offensive usage and production being dominated by Winston and big man Xavier Tillman. After a slow start to the season, the Spartans’ point guard has hit his stride lately - which has coincided with MSU getting hot as they seem to do every March. Winston is averaging 19 real points and 32 DK points per game over the last ten outings and we should expect about that same production today. Plus there’s upside here as Ohio State’s defense is among the Big Ten’s worst teams at defending the three-pointer while Winston’s 48% mark from deep during conference play leads the league.
Others to Consider:
Xavier Tillman - Michigan State ($8,900 DK / $8,200 FD)
Christian Vital - Connecticut ($8,300 DK / $7,700 FD)
Marcus Carr - Minnesota ($8,100 DK / $7,300 FD)
Anthony Cowan - Maryland ($7,800 DK / $6,900 FD)
Isaiah Whaley - Connecticut ($6,900 DK / $6,000 FD)
VALUE PLAYS
Caleb Mills - Houston ($6,000 DK / $5,000 FD)
Houston’s leading scorer is more of a mid-range play on DK and a value on FD - but he needs to be in strong consideration on this slate either way. Caleb Mills is currently on a scoring tear over the last four games, averaging nearly 21 PPG with at least 14 shot attempts in each outing during this span. The high shot volume is nothing new for the freshman as he leads the Cougars in usage rate (31%) and shots share (38%) during conference play despite coming off the bench. Mills is the team’s super-sub who provides instant offense when he’s on the court - and this something that’s stayed consistent despite the Houston starting lineup shuffling around. When he faced Memphis a couple weeks ago, Mills put up 27 DK points with his 21 points scored. We can reasonably expect another solid scoring performance in this rematch as Memphis plays extremely fast (which is a pace-up opportunity for Houston) and Mills’ offensive role isn’t changing anytime soon.
E.J. Liddell - Ohio State ($5,400 DK / $4,100 FD)
With Kyle Young out for Ohio State lately, the freshman E.J. Liddell has been taking advantage of his increase in playing time. Young has missed the last three-and-a-half games with an ankle injury and Liddell’s role has coincidentally increased during this span. He’s coming off the best game of his young career on Thursday when he recorded season-high’s in points (17), rebounds (11), minutes (27) and DK points (38). In that game vs. Illinois, Liddell benefited from fellow big man Kaleb Wesson getting into foul trouble - which forced Ohio State to play him more than usual. He was really impressive, though, and the Buckeyes could certainly use Liddell’s athletic and big frame to help confine Michigan State’s Xavier Tillman today. His DK price tag has gone into GPP territory, but his FD salary is very affordable for all formats.
Jervay Green & Charlie Easley - Nebraska
Nebraska will be without its two starting guards today as both Cam Mack and Dachon Burke are suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. In their absences, we’ll likely see both Jervay Green and Charlie Easley be elite values on this slate with a huge uptick in minutes and offensive role. Easley ($3,400 DK / $3,400 FD) actually started Thursday’s game with Mack out, but he only provided 2.25 DK points in 16 minutes as he was in foul trouble. We’ll probably see the freshman start again today and his DFS floor should honestly be higher than his last time out because he’ll have to play closer to 25-30 minutes. The prices are obviously cheap for Easley and he doesn’t have to do much to return value. Meanwhile, Green ($5,100 DK / $4,700 FD) has logged 13 starts this year but has mostly operated as the Cornhuskers’ sixth-man off the bench. We should see him enter the starting lineup again and he’s probably a safer option than Easley because he’s already shown a consistent role and production this year - hence the higher price tags. Green will likely be the team’s lead ball-handler with both Mack and Burke out - and that role should keep his DFS value higher than it’s been lately as a reserve.
Isaiah Ihnen - Minnesota ($4,100 DK / $3,600 FD)
For some reason both DFS sites have not adjusted Isaiah Ihnen’s salaries despite him providing 4x DK value or better in five straight games. After barely playing for most of the year, the freshman has worked his way to become the Golden Gophers’ first option off the bench and he’s now logged at least 23 minutes in back-to-back outings. This increase in playing time has allowed him to rack up enough stats to become safe for all formats now - especially with his role as a three-point shooter off the bench, going 8-for-17 (47%) in the last three games. Since he’s been seeing more minutes, Ihnen is averaging 18 DK points over the past five outings - and that’s proven production at this point that we’ll take all day at these prices.
Others to Consider:
Darin Green - UCF ($4,900 DK / $4,400 FD)
Donta Scott - Maryland ($4,600 DK / $4,200 FD)
Brendan Adams - Connecticut ($4,300 DK / $4,100 FD)
Tyler Harris - Memphis ($4,000 DK / $4,100 FD)
DraftKings Example Lineup:
G: Cassius Winston - MSU ($8,200)
G: Caleb Mills - HOU ($6,000)
G: Jervay Green - NEB ($5,100)
F: Daniel Oturu - MINN ($9,300)
F: Jalen Smith - MD ($8,500)
F: Isaiah Ihnen - MINN ($4,100)
U: E.J. Liddell - OSU ($5,400)
U: Charlie Easley - NEB ($3,400)
FanDuel Example Lineup:
G: Cassius Winston - MSU ($7,100)
G: Jervay Green - NEB ($4,700)
G: Caleb Mills - HOU ($5,000)
G: Darin Green - UCF ($4,400)
F: Daniel Oturu - MINN ($8,600)
F: Jalen Smith - MD ($8,000)
F: Precious Achiuwa - MEM ($8,400)
U: Isaiah Ihnen - MINN ($3,600)