Welcome to the final day of the college basketball regular season! This is the last tune-up before next week’s league tournaments get underway for these power conference programs - and one last chance for the bubble teams to prove they're worthy for the Big Dance.
FanDuel has a 6-game main slate while DraftKings has a 7-gamer with the UConn-ECU game included. There are only three Top 25 teams in action, but we get an entertaining battle between #12 Houston and #20 Cincinnati with the AAC regular season title on the line. Besides that matchup, the rest of the slate is made up of Big Ten and lesser AAC games.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!
Games To Target:
Illinois @ Penn State - 12 pm ET (PSU -8 / 146 Implied Total)
Iowa @ Nebraska - 2 pm ET (NEB -3 / 151 Implied Total)
Connecticut @ East Carolina - 2 pm ET (CONN -7 / 141 Implied Total) - DK ONLY
Games To Fade:
Houston @ Cincinnati - 12 pm ET (CIN -1 / 127 Implied Total)
Wisconsin @ Ohio State - 4:30 pm ET (WISC -2 / 120 Implied Total)
Guards
Christian Vital - CONN ($7,500 DK ONLY) - Although this game only appears on DraftKings’ slate today, Vital may be the best play overall based on his affordable price tag and increased scoring opportunities with some notable UConn injuries. The Huskies will be without Alterique Gilbert (sustained concussion and eye injury on Thursday) and likely Jalen Adams (who’s been out the past month with a knee injury) - resulting in Vital getting a big boost in on-ball usage and shot volume as the team’s best pure scorer now. Vital should also now be the lead point guard for Connecticut today - a role he occupied in Gilbert’s absence for a brief stretch in February. During that five-game span, the junior averaged 35.6 DK points with per-game marks of 15.4 real points, five rebounds and eight assists. With Gilbert back the past couple weeks, Vital had moved back to a bench role but he should slot into the starting lineup once again with UConn’s injury situation. The last time he faced East Carolina, Vital put up 42+ DK points with 18 real points, seven boards, seven assists and two steals. We could see a similar stat line again today with an even bigger offensive role.
Jahmal McMurray - SMU ($6,900 DK / $6,800 FD) - One of the key injury situations to monitor today centers on SMU point guard Jimmy Whitt, who sat out the last two games with a shoulder injury. There hasn’t been much news lately regarding Whitt’s status, but he was reported to “miss extended time” a week ago, per Jacob Prothro of Rivals.com. If Whitt is out again today, that will mean increased offensive usage and shot volume for McMurray - who’s been shouldering the load in Whitt’s absence lately. McMurray, SMU’s leading scorer this season, is coming off a performance of 33+ DK points and 24 real points scored vs. Houston on Thursday. Plus, the senior has put up at least 30 DK points and 22 real points in four of the past six games while seeing between 15-20 shots every time out.
Rob Phinisee - IND ($5,400 DK / $5,900 FD) - While Indiana makes a push for an at-large Tournament bid, Phinisee has quietly become the Hoosiers’ third offensive weapon alongside Romeo Langford and Juwan Morgan. Over the past four games, Phinisee has put up at least 28 DK points and scored in double figures three different times - playing 32+ minutes in each contest despite averaging 27 minutes on the year. The freshman is also contributing ancillary stats as well in assists, steals and rebounds - keeping his DFS value high enough to return value in spite of an increased salary today. As teams focus their defense on Langford and Morgan, Phinisee has been able to carve out a productive role - usually being guarded by opposing teams’ third-best defenders.
Amir Harris - NEB ($3,200 DK / $3,900 FD) - Another injury situation to pay close attention to today is Nebraska’s guards and, in particular, the status of Thomas Allen - who missed the last game with an ankle injury. Amir Harris made his first start on Tuesday in Allen’s absence and returned 12+ DK points in a season-high 31 minutes with four real points, five rebounds and two assists. Even if Allen is back today, expect Harris to maintain a role in Nebraska’s rotation as the team has begun to give the freshman more playing time lately to prepare for next season with this year pretty much in the books besides the upcoming conference tournament. Despite seeing minimal action for much of this season, Harris has averaged 22.5 minutes over the last four games with at least 10 DK points in each outing. Plus, he should get even more playing time now with guard Noah Akenten suspended indefinitely. At this cheap price, we really only need about 10-15 DFS points from him to return value - and it allows you to pay up for one or two other studs for a more optimal lineup.
Other Guards to Consider:
James Palmer Jr. - NEB ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD)
Corey Davis Jr. - HOU ($7,700 DK / $6,900 FD)
Glynn Watson Jr. - NEB ($6,300 DK / $6,300 FD)
Isaac Fleming - ECU ($6,100 DK ONLY)
Khalil Iverson - WISC ($4,900 DK / $5,600 FD)
Forwards
Lamar Stevens - PSU ($9,600 DK / $8,400 FD) - Penn State is nowhere near tournament-bound, but Stevens has quietly been on an offensive tear lately as the Nittany Lions have won four of the last five. Over those five games, Stevens is averaging 23.6 real points, 7.2 rebounds and 39 DK points while playing 35 or more minutes with a huge shot volume in every outing. Penn State’s offense leans very heavily on Stevens as his offensive usage and shots share are both top marks in the Big Ten - ranking 6th and 2nd, respectively. Even when his team was losing, Stevens was still putting up numbers as he’s averaging 22 real points, eight rebounds and 39+ DK points over the last ten games. Today’s matchup vs. Illinois should be an up-and-down game with tons of scoring opportunity for Stevens - both teams are among the top 3 in the conference in tempo. When he faced Illinois just a couple weeks ago, Stevens put up 37.5 DK points with 25 real points, eight boards and two steals.
Josh Carlton - CONN ($6,300 DK ONLY) - Again, it’s a shame this Connecticut game is only on DK today because Carlton is very attractive at this price for the upside he can bring your lineups. The UConn center is coming off back-to-back games with at least 33 DK points where he averaged 18.5 real points, eight rebounds and two blocks. Today he gets another favorable matchup vs. East Carolina, who is one of the worst rebounding teams in the AAC and is prone to getting their shots blocked. Both these stats play into Carlton’s strengths - the 6’10” sophomore is one of the conference’s better rebounders and shot-blockers with a top 5 AAC marks in offensive rebounding (3rd) and block rate (4th). When Carlton faced East Carolina last month, he dominated the game with 20 real points, 16 rebounds and three blocks for 47 DK points. We should see at least 30-40 DFS points from him again today with this matchup and the fact that he’ll see an uptick in offensive usage with Alterique Gilbert out.
Justin Smith - IND ($4,900 DK / $5,400 FD) - Smith is firmly back in Indiana’s starting rotation after a three-game stint on the bench and he’s been playing lights out offensively lately as Indiana builds its Tournament resume. He’s scored 24 and 15 real points the last two games, respectively, and is shooting 52.5% from the field (21-for-40) in the past three. The large shot volume - and at least 26 minutes in all three of those games - is encouraging as he seems to have won his starting job back from De’Ron Davis, who started in Smith’s place for those three games in February. As Indiana makes a push for an at-large Tournament bid, Smith’s increased role is consistent with the Hoosiers’ three straight wins - and they’ll need his contribution on both ends of the floor as Rutgers is no push-over despite a poor conference record. The Scarlet Knights have beaten Tournament-level teams in Minnesota and Iowa in their last three games and actually defeated Indiana back in January.
Kyle Young - OSU ($4,600 DK / $4,500 FD) & Jaedon LeDee - OSU ($3,400 DK / $3,500 FD) - With center Kaleb Wesson still suspended, a void remains in Ohio State’s frontcourt with a tough matchup vs. Wisconsin looming today. LeDee got the spot start two games ago in Wesson’s absence and promptly scored 16 real points and 24+ DK points in 22 minutes. Then, against Northwestern on Wednesday, LeDee moved back to the bench and only played five minutes. Instead, Young entered the starting rotation for the first time since January and put up 19.5 DK points in 26 minutes with seven real points, four rebounds, two blocks and a steal. Young, a sophomore, had started 12 games for the Buckeyes before an injury forced him to miss time in the middle of conference play. He could get a second-straight start, but LeDee may actually match up better with Wisconsin stud Ethan Happ - the 6’9” freshman has better size, rebounding and shot-blocking skills to cause Happ troubles in the paint. For DK players with the late-swap option, you may have to employ a wait-and-see approach until we get Ohio State’s starting lineup ahead of this 4:30 pm ET tip. For FD users, Young is the safer option as he still gets decent playing time off the bench if he doesn’t start - while LeDee could give you a goose-egg in the event he’s back in a reserve role.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Ethan Happ - WISC ($11,200 DK / $9,200 FD)
Juwan Morgan - IND ($9,300 DK / $8,600 FD)
Mike Watkins - PSU ($5,900 DK / $5,500 FD)
Michael Durr - USF ($4,500 DK / $5,200 FD)
Tanner Borchardt - NEB ($3,600 DK / $4,000 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Christian Vital, CONN - $7,500
G: Jahmal McMurray, SMU - $6,900
G: Amir Harris, NEB - $3,200
F: Lamar Stevens, PSU - $9,600
F: Josh Carlton, CONN - $6,300
F: Kyle Young, OSU - $4,600
U: Rob Phinisee, IND - $5,400
U: Glynn Watson, NEB - $6,300
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: James Palmer, NEB - $8,100
G: Jahmal McMurray, SMU - $6,800
G: Amir Harris, NEB - $3,900
G: Corey Davis, HOU - $6,900
F: Lamar Stevens, PSU - $8,400
F: Justin Smith, IND - $5,400
F: Kyle Young, OSU - $4,500
U: Rob Phinisee, IND - $5,900