Ready for the late-night DFS CBB slate of the week? Tonight, we have five Pac-12 matchups to anchor the back of the slate and keep us sweating our lineups late into the night (for us East Coasters, at least).
Tipping at 7 pm ET, FanDuel has a 7-game slate while DraftKings includes eight games with the Washington-Cal game acting as a second late-night hammer at 11 pm ET. As mentioned, the Pac-12 matchups highlight the night - but two Big Ten games and an AAC showdown bring some diversity to the player pool.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotation changes and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!
Games To Target:
USC @ UCLA - 9 pm ET (UCLA -3 / 153 Implied Total)
Washington State @ Stanford - 9 pm ET (STAN -9 / 153 Implied Total)
Games To Fade:
Minnesota @ Northwestern - 7 pm ET (NW -3 / 131 Implied Total)
Nebraska @ Michigan - 7 pm ET (MICH -11 / 129 Implied Total)
Guards
Jaylen Hands - UCLA ($8,100 DK / $7,700 FD) - The dynamic sophomore point guard has been a bit inconsistent this season, but he’s begun to really show out lately as he likely tries to build his NBA draft prospects. He’s the best passer in the Pac-12 with a conference-best 6.4 assists per game and a 34.5 assist rate (also tops in the conference). Yet, it’s been Hands’ scoring and willingness to drive to the rim in recent games that’s brought his DFS value to an another level. Over the last five games, Hands is averaging 21.4 points, 13 shot attempts and 7.5 free throw attempts while still providing more than nine rebounds/assists per game. During the recent five-game span, he’s had three different outings of at least 45 DK points - including two 50-burgers. With UCLA’s season pretty much over, Hands has been given all the opportunity to make plays on his own with a larger shot volume. Even at his current price tag, Hands is probably a bargain because he’s been close to 9k value with the way he’s been playing lately.
Alterique Gilbert - CONN ($6,100 DK / $6,200 FD) - The way to attack Wichita State in DFS this year has been through opposing guards as the Shockers have size and rebounding ability down low. Gilbert should be back starting tonight as UConn’s lead point guard - a role he locked down before an injury sidelined him for five games earlier this month. The sophomore has been back the last two games and although he’s yet to return to the starting lineup, he logged 33 minutes with 18 shot attempts over the weekend. Apparently Gilbert (and teammate Christian Vital) were benched last game because of an embarrassing loss to SMU, but we have to expect Gilbert to get 30+ minutes yet again even if he’s not starting. With Jalen Adams still out for UConn, Gilbert should continue to act as the lead distributor and ball-handler while also getting a decent shot volume with few top scoring options outside of him and Vital.
Kevin Porter Jr. - USC ($5,200 DK / $5,400 FD) - We’ve come to a time in the year when potential NBA Draft prospects try to play their way into the lottery in these last couple weeks of college action with their teams out of contention. This is exactly the case for Kevin Porter Jr., whose USC team won’t be in the tournament (barring a miracle conference tourney run). Porter has needed to prove himself lately after a shaky freshman year filled with injuries and suspensions. Yet, the 6’6” wing player has played the last nine games and he’s coming off one of his best overall performances of the season on Saturday - 11 points, 10 rebounds, three steals and a block for 33 DK points. In three of the past four games, Porter has scored in double figures with at least 22 DK points. His defensive intensity and usage around the ball have also increased - raising his fantasy floor as he starts to record better ancillary stats in addition to his scoring.
Jules Bernard - UCLA ($4,400 DK / $4,900 FD) - There isn’t a ton of value to pick from from tonight, but Bernard presents one of the better cheap options on both sites tonight. The Bruins’ freshman has been playing a much larger role off the bench recently, scoring in double figures in five of the last six games - including 19- and 20-point games in two of the last three. Barring a miracle Pac-12 tournament run, UCLA’s season is all but over and it’s clear that interim head coach Murry Bartow is giving the freshman more playing time lately with Bernard and David Singleton getting more and more minutes with each passing game. Bernard has logged 19 or minutes in four straight (including a season-high 28 on Saturday) and he hasn’t been shy to drive to the rim and either get fouled or score buckets. He’s had 21 combined free-throw attempts in the past two games - an unusual number to see from a reserve player in college basketball. Bernard can easily get you 4x or 5x value tonight with a sub-5k price on both sites.
Other Guards to Consider:
Luguentz Dort - ASU ($8,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
Matisse Thybulle - WASH ($7,500 DK ONLY)
Payton Pritchard - ORE ($6,700 DK / $6,800 FD)
Dexter Dennis - WICH ($4,900 DK / $5,400 FD)
David Singleton - UCLA ($3,800 DK / $4,200 FD)
Forwards
Bennie Boatwright - USC ($8,400 DK / $8,200 FD) - Whenever USC is on the slate, Boatwright needs to be considered because of his shot volume and scoring efficiency as the Trojans’ best player - keeping his DFS floor and ceiling pretty high. Over the last ten games, the 6’10” senior is averaging 34.5 DK points and nearly 20 real points per outing - shooting 49% from the field and 52% from three-point range. Plus, the last time Boatwright faced UCLA this season? He put up 42.8 DK points with 21 real points, seven boards, two blocks and a steal. UCLA’s defense is poor and any game vs. them is worth targeting in your lineups. It’s an added bonus that the best player in this game is Boatwright who can take advantage of the undersized Bruins in the paint.
Daniel Oturu - MINN ($6,500 DK / $7,000 FD) - Opposing forwards have had some big games against Northwestern lately, but we’re not targeting Jordan Murphy in this one. Murphy can be dominant - no doubt - but his home/road splits are atrocious as he’s simply been a completely different DFS value on the road this season (averaging nearly 20 less DK points than at home). Instead, let’s look at Oturu - who’s coming off back-to-back games of 34 DK points and is set up for another monster effort. Although Murphy leads the team in rebounding and scoring, Oturu has racked up 20 combined boards and 38 total points in the last two games. Since returning from a shoulder injury a month ago, Oturu is averaging 14.4 points, 7.5 rebounds and 27 DK points in eight games with four different outings of 33 DK points in that span. Although there’s a slight risk for foul trouble as Dererk Pardon and Vic Law both draw fouls well, Oturu seems a safe bet to return 4x value if he continues his dominance down low.
Jon Teske - MICH ($6,300 DK / $7,100 FD) - Although Michigan doesn’t play fast and its defense holds opponents to low scores, the starters play a ton of minutes and Teske is usually involved on each possession - whether he’s protecting the rim defensively or getting put-backs and running pick-and-rolls on the offensive end. In tonight’s matchup, Teske will certainly have the advantage on the boards as Nebraska’s frontcourt and presence on the glass has been soft ever since Isaac Copeland got hurt halfway through conference play. With a team-leading rebounding rate and a 7’1” frame, Teske should grab a ton of rebounds tonight against Nebraska’s undersized bigs.
Marvin Cannon - WSU ($4,900 DK / $4,900 FD) - Cannon was a regular starter for Washington State to begin conference play and (after a brief reserve role) he’s back starting the last six games, logging at least 30 minutes in each of the last three. Of course the playing time is encouraging to see at this cheap price tag, Cannon has been an efficient scorer with solid production in nearly every stat category. During that recent three-game span, the sophomore has gone 16-for-31 from the field (51.6%) - scoring in double-digits in each game - with 13 combined free-throw attempts. Expect Cannon to get the start again tonight over CJ Elleby - a lineup change that’s been working for Washington State lately as both players have been productive in their new roles.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Tres Tinkle - OSU ($10,000 DK / $8,800 FD)
Josh Sharma - STAN ($6,000 DK / $6,600 FD)
Paul White - ORE ($5,400 DK / $5,500 FD)
Connor Vanover - CAL ($4,700 DK ONLY)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Jaylen Hands, UCLA - $8,100
G: Kevin Porter, USC - $5,200
G: Payton Pritchard, ORE - $6,700
F: Bennie Boatwright, USC - $8,400
F: Jon Teske, MICH - $6,300
F: Marvin Cannon, WSU - $4,900
U: Jules Bernard, UCLA - $4,400
U: Josh Sharma, STAN - $6,000
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Jules Bernard, UCLA - $4,900
G: Luguentz Dort, ASU - $7,800
G: Kevin Porter, USC - $5,400
G: Alterique Gilbert, CONN - $6,200
F: Bennie Boatwright, USC - $8,200
F: Daniel Oturu, MINN - $7,000
F: Marvin Cannon, WSU - $4,900
U: Dexter Dennis, WICH - $5,400