DraftKings and FanDuel both have a 10-game night slate tipping at 7 pm ET with seven Top 25 teams in action and some entertaining conference matchups that should make following your lineups fun!
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!
Games To Target:
Mississippi @ South Carolina - 7 pm ET (MISS -3 / 153 Implied Total)
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee - 7 pm ET (TENN -20 / 150 Implied Total)
Maryland @ Iowa - 8 pm ET (IOWA -1 / 151 Implied Total)
Games To Fade:
Nebraska @ Penn State - 7 pm ET (PSU -1 / 133 Implied Total)
Florida State @ Clemson - 8 pm ET (CLEM -1 / 135 Implied Total)
Guards:
Carsen Edwards - PUR ($9,600 DK / $8,700 FD) - As the highest-priced guard on both sites tonight, Edwards may appear too expensive to roster - but he should still return value as the do-it-all playmaker for Purdue. Edwards was just decent on Saturday vs. Penn State, yet he’s been outstanding in Big Ten play this year as he dominates the usage and shot volume for the Boilermakers. Per KenPom’s ratings, Edwards’ possession usage and shots share are both top two marks in the conference to go along with team-leading numbers in assist rate, fouls drawn and steals rate. Over the past ten games, the senior is averaging 40 DK points and 24.3 real points with five outings of at least 42 fantasy points - including his first meeting vs. Indiana when he put up 20 points, seven assists, four rebounds and three steals. Edwards handles the ball so often and takes the majority of Purdue’s shots that he’s able to be DFS productive even when he has a “down” game. Expect him to be more active than usual tonight even against a tough Hoosiers defense.
Breein Tyree - MISS ($7,800 DK / $7,600 FD) - Tyree is coming off a slightly down game DFS-wise on Saturday, but he’s been on an offensive tear lately as Ole Miss’ top scorer over the past month. He’s scored at least 20 points in a game in seven of the last nine outings and is averaging nearly 30 DK points during the past ten games - including 34+ DK points in four straight earlier this month. Tyree offers little upside in ancillary stats and can be a little shot-dependent - yet that hasn’t really been a problem lately because he dominates much of Mississippi’s shot volume with teammate Terence Davis, with Tyree being the go-to scorer in recent play. Tonight will be a pace-up matchup for the Rebels as South Carolina runs at the 41st-fastest pace (compared to 119th for Ole Miss). In one of the highest-projected totals on the slate, Tyree is the best scorer in this game and should return to his normal allotment of 15-20 shot attempts.
Ashton Hagans - UK ($5,500 DK / $6,600 FD) - Hagans has been a value play for us in the past but a salary increase over the past month made it tough to roster him. Now with a depressed price as the cheapest Kentucky starter on both sites, let’s get back on the Hagans train in a favorable matchup tonight. The freshman point guard doesn’t get a ton of shots, but his balanced production in nearly every stat category usually provides a high enough floor for cash games. Over the last ten games, Hagans is averaging 24.6 DK points with 8.2 real points, 9.4 rebounds/assists and 2.1 steals per outing. His steal rate is actually 2nd-best in the SEC - which stands out on this slate with an attractive matchup vs. turnover-prone Missouri, one of the worst teams in the conference. Although Kentucky is on the road tonight, this actually benefits Hagans as he averages nearly 12 more DK points in away games than at home.
Devonte Bandoo - BAY ($4,400 DK / $5,000 FD) - A couple key injuries to monitor tonight will be the statuses of Baylor’s Makai Mason and King McClure. Both are game-time decisions tonight but McClure (knee) has missed the last three games while Mason sat out Saturday with a bruised toe and missed two of the last three. In their stead, Bandoo has been the biggest beneficiary with extended playing time, a bigger role offensively and an insertion into Baylor’s starting rotation in the two games Mason has missed. If Mason is out again, lock Bandoo into your lineups with the real expectation he returns 5x value with the increased usage and shot volume. Even if Mason plays and McClure sits, Bandoo is still a good value play as he’s averaged 23 DK points over the last three games that McClure’s been out. During this recent three-game stretch, the junior is putting up 10+ shots and 6+ three-pointers per outing - an encouraging sign that he can be trusted with scoring opportunities even when Baylor’s best players are out.
Other Guards to Consider:
Marial Shayok - ISU ($8,200 DK / $8,200 FD)
Isaiah Moss - IOWA ($5,400 DK / $5,700 FD)
Jared Butler - BAY ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD)
Tre Campbell - SCAR ($4,600 DK / $5,100 FD)
Forwards:
Donta Hall - ALA ($7,400 DK / $7,400 FD) - Hall has been a bit inconsistent offensively in recent play, but he could easily return to 4x or 5x value in a favorable matchup at an affordable price point. Hall torched Texas A&M in last month’s previous meeting with 14 points, 16 rebounds and four blocks - and he could realistically duplicate those numbers in tonight’s rematch. The Aggies get their shots blocked a ton and are a very poor defensive rebounding team. Meanwhile, Hall is among the best rebounders in the SEC and averages nearly two blocks per outing with the upside for more in a matchup like tonight’s. Looking back on Hall’s dominating performance vs. Texas A&M earlier this year, it was clear the Aggies had no answer for Hall’s size, strength and rebounding/putback ability in the paint. The senior remains a risky play, though, because he’s had a tendency to take a backseat in the Alabama offense and fail to score or rebound in double figures.
Aaron Nesmith - VAND ($6,400 DK / $6,600 FD) - Vanderbilt may be projected to lose by 20 to one of the best teams in the country, but Nesmith has been outstanding lately and thus impossible to ignore at an affordable price tag tonight. The freshman is coming off back-to-back smash performances of at least 47 DK points and 24 real points in two tough defensive matchups vs. Florida and Auburn. His opponent tonight, Tennessee, is impressively defensively as well but Nesmith still put up 42 DK points and 24 real points vs. the Vols back in January in the first meeting. Ever since the 6’6” winger entered Vandy’s starting rotation over a month ago, he’s turned into their best offensive weapon and leading scorer with added production across all stat categories. Nesmith has already shown us 6x upside at this salary in tough matchups - and against Tennessee once already - and the team-leading shot volume provides a higher floor than normal.
Christ Koumadje - FSU ($4,900 DK / $5,800 FD) - Welcome to the curious case of Christ Koumadje. That may have a nice ring to it, but rostering the Florida State senior has given DFS players headaches this season. You might think Koumadje and his 7-foot-4, 268-pound frame would be dominating college basketball by now, but he’s been so inconsistent this year with equal chances of either returning 6x value or busting big time. Fortunately for us, it’s been the former lately. Over the last two games, Koumadje has posted consecutive double-doubles in extended playing time with performances of 40.5 and 31 DK points in wins vs. Wake Forest and Georgia Tech, respectively. Clemson does present a tougher matchup tonight, but expect Florida State to stick with the hot hand in Koumadje as his size could play a huge role on the road. Roster with caution, though, as he’s purely a GPP play because of the real possibility he posts less than 10 DK points.
De’Ron Davis - IU ($4,000 DK / $5,000 FD) - Davis has battled an ankle injury and minimal playing time for much of this season, but he’s been a regular part of Indiana’s rotation the last four games and even got his first start of the year on Saturday. The 6’10” senior center replaced Justin Smith in the starting lineup over the weekend and responded with 21.5 DK points in 18 minutes of action. There’s a chance that was just a spot start for Davis, but he’s still been able to produce off the bench as he’s now put up 20+ DK points in three of the last four games. Check the lineups ahead of this 7 pm ET tip - if Davis is among the starters he’s a lock play in all formats. Even if he comes off the bench, he still deserves consideration against a Purdue team that’s been generous to opposing bigs in conference play.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Grant Williams - TENN ($9,700 DK / $8,900 FD)
PJ Washington - UK ($8,000 DK / $8,300 FD)
Freddie Gillespie - BAY ($4,200 DK / $5,100 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings (EARLY):
G: Carsen Edwards, PUR - $9,600
G: Ashton Hagans, UK - $5,500
G: Breein Tyree, MISS - $7,800
F: Donta Hall, ALA - $7,400
F: Aaron Nesmith, VAND - $6,400
F: De’Ron Davis, IU - $4,000
U: Devonte Bandoo, BAY - $4,400
U: Christ Koumadje, FSU - $4,900
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Carsen Edwards, PUR - $8,700
G: Ashton Hagans, UK - $6,600
G: Tre Campbell, SCAR - $5,100
G: Devonte Bandoo, BAY - $5,000
F: Donta Hall, ALA - $7,400
F: Aaron Nesmith, VAND - $6,600
F: De’Ron Davis, IU - $5,000
U: Jared Butler, BAY - $5,600