Below is a breakdown for Wednesday’s three-game NHL DFS main slate followed by example lineups. 

Teams to Target

As of this writing, the smallest favorite in tonight’s three games was -180, so it’s obvious which teams to target tonight. For what it’s worth, my own matchup stat agrees with Vegas as the three underdogs all have below average fantasy matchups and the favorite have above average matchups.

The team with the highest implied goal total is the favorite in the game with the highest over/under, which is Vegas at -210 with an O/U of 6.5 at home against Edmonton. The Oilers are the only team on the slate that is playing for the second day in a row. Edmonton doesn’t provide any individual matchups you have to avoid, so all of Vegas’ top six forwards are in play. Max Pacioretty is a bit too expensive, and you can get similar projected production from Mark Stone for cheaper. Other than that, none of those forwards are grossly overpriced. Notable values are Reilly Smith on FD and Jonathan Marchessault on DK. On the blue line, Shea Theodore is obviously an option as the D-man on the top PP unit, and Nate Schmidt sees work on the second unit and is priced well on FD.

The Avalanche are the other home favorite of the slate, and a -210 favorite as well though their game has an over/under of six. Their studs, Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Cale Makar, are all worth paying up for whenever possible. You can find value in Makar’s D partner Ryan Graves on FD at $4,300. He easily leads all D-men on this slate in shots plus blocks per minute played. As for forward values, Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher are playing on the second line and up on the top PP unit with MacKinnon. Compher is around average in terms of production and priced a bit below average on FD. Jost is below average, but he is priced at the minimum on DK.

The Pens are the smallest of the favorites and the only road favorite. They’re in LA to face the Kings who are the best defensive team of the three underdogs, though they have terrible goaltending. I’m more inclined to spend more on the heavier favorites at home against lesser defensive teams. That means Sidney Crosby isn’t on my radar, and Evgeni Malkin probably isn’t either, though he would be preferable to Crosby. Bryan Rust plays with Malkin and on the top PP unit and continues to be too cheap on FD, and Patric Hornqvist is reasonably priced on both sites with a spot on the top PP unit. Jared McCann is a cheap value option on FD as he sees some PP work. If you could afford it, Kris Letang could be worth paying up for on DK, while Justin Schultz is an option on FD at only $100 over the minimum.

Value Plays

If there is a line with upside from the underdogs that is priced reasonably on both sites, it’s Connor McDavid’s line. He has new additions Tyler Ennis and Andreas Athanasiou skating with him, and all three guys are priced reasonably to well on both sites. We’ll get to their goaltender in a minute, but it might make sense to include them with their goalie in a GPP lineup.

If you’re looking for cheap stacks for salary relief, Colorado’s second is in play on FD. We mentioned Jost and Compher playing on the top PP unit, and the third member of that line, Joonas Donskoi is a very good value on FD. Over on DK, Buffalo’s second line is underpriced across the board. That line is Marcus Johansson centering Jeff Skinner and the newly acquired Wayne Simmonds.

Goalies

Goalies are relatively simple today. Whoever starts for the Penguins, Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry, is the best option from the favorites. The Kings are a great matchup for goalies as they rank third in shots on goal per game and next to last in shooting percentage. The goalies from the other favorites will cost more than the Pens goalie on DK and more on FD as well if its Matt Murray. The other favored goalies also project to see below average shots against, which limits their upside.

From the underdogs, Mikko Koskinen and Carter Hutton have some upside with the two highest projected shots faced. Koskinen is cheaper on both sites and makes more sense as part of a stack with the McDavid line.

 

Pivots in Example Lineups are intended to skew more towards GPP plays.