Below are is a breakdown for Friday’s three-game NHL DFS slate followed by example lineups. Please note that the pivots in the lineups are intended to skew more toward GPP plays.

Teams to Target

We’ll use process of elimination here and toss out Pittsburgh and Arizona as teams you can consider. Those two teams have the lowest implied goal totals of the night per Vegas and below average matchups according to my matchup model. Perhaps someone from their teams could be used as a one-off value play if it fits in a lineup, but generally these aren’t teams to lean on tonight.

Colorado is the weird team of this slate. Like Pittsburgh and Arizona, they have a below average matchup per my matchup model, but it’s worse than that as they have the worst matchup of the slate per my model. Oh wait, it’s even worse than that as the Penguins are the worst matchup in the league for opposing skaters per my model. The weird part is the Avs have the highest implied goal total of the slate as one of two large favorites on the slate and as the one in the game with the higher over/under of 6.5 goals.

The question is whether you pay up for Colorado’s studs who always have upside. I’m almost always down for considering Nathan MacKinnon as he’s arguably the best player in the league and virtually match-up proof. But on a short slate where he may be chalky when I happen to think the matchup is as bad as possible, tonight might not be the night to spend on him. Mikko Rantanen plays on the top line and top PP unit with MacKinnon, and Rantanen is priced well on DK, so he could be considered there. Nazem Kadri also gets you some indirect exposure to MacKinnon as Kadri is the fourth forwards on the top PP unit. Kadri is priced well on both sites but particularly on DK. Defenseman Cale Makar is yet another guy who should be on the ice with MacKinnon plenty, and he is priced well on both sites.

Of the three remaining teams, Carolina and Detroit have the two clearly good matchups of the slate, and they’re the other two favorites aside from Colorado.

Carolina is a sizable home favorite against Arizona opening at -175. The Yotes are the only team on the slate playing for the second night in a row, and how great this matchup ends up being will depend on whether Antti Raanta can return from injury tonight. It’s still a plus matchup if he does, but if he does not, it’s going to be Adin Hill for the second night in a row or the organization’s fourth goaltender. UPDATE: Raanta will start for Arizona. Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen play together on the top line and top PP unit and are a great mini-stack option. Aho is priced quite well on DK but is overpriced on FD. The same is true for Teravainen, but the gap is much smaller. Dougie Hamilton is the D-man on the top PP unit for the Canes, and he is priced better on FD.

The Red Wings are also a home favorite but only a slight one since they suck. Ottawa’s top line isn’t necessarily a good defensive line, but they are better than the rest of Ottawa’s trios. Thankfully, Detroit doesn’t use its only productive line, its first, exclusively against opposing top lines in home games. Center Dylan Larkin is a solid play on both sites, but his wingers, Tyler Bertuzzi and Robby Fabbri are extremely overpriced on DK. If you wanted to stack the line, FD would be the spot to do so. Defenseman Filip Hronek could be stacked with them there as the D-man on the top PP unit.

Value Plays

This easily could have been addressed in the section above, but we’ll talk about Carolina’s third line here since collectively they’re the best value on either site. Center Erik Haula is priced very well on both sites and has added value as he plays on the top PP unit. Both of his wingers, Ryan Dzingel and Martin Necas are good values on DK, and Necas is a good value on FD as well.

While we’re out on Pittsburgh generally, Bryan Rust continues to be a great value on FD. He plays with Evgeni Malkin on the top line and top PP unit, and he’s priced like it on DK at $7,100. However, he’s only $5,700 on FD which means he’ll take up almost four percent less of the cap there.

J.T. Compher was on the fourth line at Colorado’s practice yesterday, but the dude scored twice and played 19 minutes in Colorado’s most recent game. He sees work on the second PP unit, and he’s a very good salary relief option on DK at only $3,000.

On the blue line, you can get some salary relief with Makar’s defensive partner Ryan Graves on FD where he is only $200 above the minimum. Graves has a nice floor as he leads all defensemen on the slate in shots on goal plus blocked shots per minute played. His teammate, Ian Cole, ranks third in that stat, and he’s only $3,400 on DK where he could be used for salary relief.

Goalies

Philipp Grubauer is the clear top goalie of the slate as the Avs are one of two large favorites, and he’s projected to see a noticeably higher shot total than whoever starts in net for Carolina. Typically, the obvious goalies are over 8K on DK, but Grubauer is right at that mark, and he’s a real value on FD under 8K. UPDATE: It’s going to be Pavel Francouz in net for Colorado tonight, but everything originally said about Grubauer applies to Francouz as well. In the event you’re heavy on Francouz, it might be worth throwing Pens in a GPP lineup.

For GPPs, Jonathan Bernier might make sense to pair with a DET1 stack on FD given that he’s priced well there, and the Wings are a slight favorite. On DK, Antti Raanta would be an option for GPPs on DK if he ends up being able to go. He has upside as he ranks 12th among 62 qualified goalies in Goals Saved Above Average, and he should see plenty of rubber against a Carolina team that ranks second in shots on goal per game. Tristan Jarry (or Matt Murray) is also an option for GPPs furthering the idea that Avs skaters have a tough matchup.