2021 MLB ADP Trends and the MDA Week 2
Andy Spiteri takes a look at some Fantasy Baseball ADP trends and looks at who's rising and who's falling in drafts based on recent free agent signings!
It’s been some week. Three mocks with the MDA, a TGFBI mock, the Fantasy Alarm Staff mock, and my first experts league draft with the FSGA. As spring training games haven’t started and free agency signings are coming to a slow crawl, there hasn’t been too much movement in the ADP landscape. I’ll go over a few players that are on the move but concentrate on draft position strategy based on what we’re seeing in all these mocks/drafts.
J.T. Realmuto broke his thumb on his throwing hand. He’s in a cast and no surgery was required. This puts his healing time in the six-week timeframe but it’s supposedly relatively minor and the Phillies expect him to be ready for opening day. His NFBC ADP has taken a little bit of hit dropping him about six spots from 34 to 39.5. In our 15 team mock on Thursday, Fantasy Alarm’s Ivar Anderson took him with the 47th pick. Due to the Phillies announcement that he is expected not to miss any part of the season, I don’t expect his ADP to drop any further. This may change in mid-March if he’s not showing progress.
When a manager announces “he’s our everyday centerfielder”, that player’s ADP will jump. Nick Senzel took that leap in one day on Thursday. His ADP was at 278 for all NFBC drafts since November. His minimum pick after that was 227. He was taken with pick 215 in the FSGA draft on Thursday. If you look at outdated ADP numbers you will miss out on this potential upside outfielder.
When controversy follows a player, it’s hard to shake it. This week Domingo Germán and some of his teammates addressed the pitcher’s suspension over a domestic violence issue. I have been taking a chance on him late in drafts as his absence last year wasn’t from an injury. He didn’t fare too well in a winter league but we’ll see. Considering his ADP has gone from 321 to 387 over the last week, he can be considered a free piece at the end of your pitching staff that can be dropped without guilt if he doesn’t perform.
Draft Position Strategies
The chat room has been active and the Mock Draft Army has been talking about where the sweet spot is in this year’s draft order. Most are staying in the 6-9 range, but some are also taking a liking to the end of the first round. If you have a choice in where you draft, such as setting up a KDS ranking on NFBC, the spot you pick will depend on your first round philosophy.
If you are of the like who wants to take one of the top three pitchers, you better get in that 5-8 range. This puts you in position to take deGrom/Cole/Bieber, and then pair them up with some offense in the next few rounds. In the Wednesday 12 team mock, Bieber went sixth and was followed up by Luis Robert and José Abreu . I took deGrom at seven and followed him up with four hitters, Bichette, Arenado, Bogaerts and Alonso before taking a chance on Dinelson Lamet ’s arm not falling off.
Those that like either end of the order, are probably either waiting on pitching or going to go for one in the next tier. Jim Bowden in the FSGA experts draft had the 14th and 15th picks and went hitters for his first six picks, then starting pitching with his next five. Looking at the MDA, most who picked in the 11-15 range went with two hitters.
Understanding what you think is the best way to go is an important piece of deciding where to pick in your draft. I received my first choice of slot five for the upcoming TGFBI draft. I know who I want but being in the fifth position leaves me in a great position to be happy even if I don’t get him. I mean, Mike Trout is the best player in baseball isn’t he?
I am leaving the Mock Draft Army in good hands this upcoming week as I will be away. Hope you all have a great week and be safe!