It was the Giants who supplied us with some edge of your seat drama for thousands of survivor pool participants. They went to LA and almost took down the Rams as huge underdogs. Then on Sunday night, the underdog Eagles playing with guys even Philadelphia fans never heard of, took down the 49ers and knocked out roughly 3-5% of most pools. We now move on to week 5 which begins the bye week portion of the schedule, limiting the number of teams we have to choose from.

There are plenty of options in week 5 as the Westgate Superbook has 7 teams favored by 7 or more points and that’s with three games off the books. The key to this week is going to be gaining leverage on the field based on future value since there should be many winners. Let’s take a look at the popular picks this week.

Dallas is a 9 1/2 point home favorite over the Giants. Well at least the NFC will gain a win in this one.  It’s looking like Dallas is the most popular pick so far this week at around 25%.  They have been awful on defense and should be 0-4, but Dak Prescott has been on fire with over 425 passing yards in each of the last 3 games. Part of that has been out of necessity with the defense giving up over 36 points a game. Can the Giants, sans Saquan, muster up any offense? Despite giving up the least number of points in the division, they have only scored 47 points which is the lowest in the league by 33 points.  Something has to give here but I don’t see Devonta Freeman and Danny Dimes figuring it out. Dallas should win this one easily.

Next on the popularity scale is Baltimore. The Ravens are favored by 13 at home over the Bengals.  They are currently being chosen by about 15% of pool survivors.  The Ravens went to Washington and easily handled the Football Team.  The Bengals are coming off a big game by Joe Mixon against the Jaguars. Joe Burrow also threw for 300 yards but he will have a much tougher time against the Ravens’ secondary. This game could be a little closer than expected if Lamar Jackson doesn’t get the passing game going but the Ravens should easily prevail. Make sure you check the injury report as Jackson missed practiced on Wednesday.

The Cardinals are 7 point favorites on the road against the Sam Darnold -less Jets. I took the Cardinals earlier in the season so they won’t be my pick here but it’s hard to imagine Kyler Murray not putting a beating on the Jets’ secondary. As long as D’Andre Hopkins is healthy, it’s 0-5 for the New York team from Queens that plays in Jersey. 

On Monday, instead of Sunday, the Chiefs were given a test against the Patriots. Coach Belichick was at his usual evil genius disguising coverages and the Pats held the Chiefs in check for most of the game. A relatively lucky pick-six made the game seem like it wasn’t close. The Chiefs host the Raiders and are the week’s biggest favorites at 13 ½ (it’s off the board at Westgate).  It’s the chalk pick but they hold way too much future value to pick them here. If you are in a pool where you can pick any team each week, they’re pretty much a lock.

Other games with large point spreads are:

Rams -7 at Washington

Steelers -7 vs. Eagles

Seattle -7 vs. Minnesota

Saints -7 ½ vs. Chargers

Of these games, my order of preference would be New Orleans, LA, Seattle, and Pittsburgh.

Pick of the Week: Dallas Cowboys

Dallas has looked terrible on defense. The Giants have looked even worse on offense. Putting it on a scale I see Dallas’ offense scoring more points against an ok Giants defense than the abysmal Giants offense scoring against the horrific Dallas defense. Dallas also doesn’t have much value going forward. The best chance for them going forward is week 12 at home against Washington. Is this a ‘comfortable” pick? It’s pretty tough taking a team that should be 0-4 but they are playing a team that IS 0-4 and deservedly so.  

If you haven’t taken the Cardinals, they should be a consideration as they hold very little value for the rest of the season. If you want to go super low owned contrarian, you could look at the Texans over the Jaguars. Teams seem to rise the week after a coaching change. I’m not super high on it, but they could be that type of pick. Good luck this week and hope we’ll see you back next week!  If you have any specific questions, always available on Twitter @gasdoc_spit