NFL Matchups - Week CC

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots

Venue: Gillette Stadium(Foxborough)Sun. 1-21 @ 3:05 pm ESTOver/Under: 46.5

   Weather

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9), Saturday, 3:05 pm EST.

Last Meeting (9/27/15): Patriots won 51-17. Blake Bortles threw for 242 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. TJ Yeldon rushed for 33 yards on eleven carries. Allen Hurns caught two passes for 70 yards and a touchdown. Tom Brady threw for 358 yards and two touchdowns. Legarrette Blount rushed for 78 yards and three touchdowns on eighteen carries. Rob Gronkowski caught four passes for 101 yards.

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Blake Bortles- Bortles threw for 214 yards and a touchdown. Bortles was a perfect game manager, allowing the defense and running game to carry the Jaguars to a big win in Pittsburgh. The Patriots gave up the seventh most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season and will likely try and stack the box to force Bortles to throw. It is unlikely he goes off, but with how cheap he is there is nice value here.
  • Leonard Fournette- Fournette rushed for 109 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries versus the Steelers. The defense help the offense out quite a bit, but Fournette was also very good at attacking the center of the Pittsburgh defense that had struggled since the loss of Ryan Shazier. He gets a Patriots defense that allowed the second fewest rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs, but he will be a big part of the game plan and should return value as long as Bortles can keep the defense honest.
  • T.J. Yeldon- Yeldon caught three passes for 57 yards versus the Steelers. He is mostly a punt play, but could be a sneaky one at that. The Patriots gave up the second most receiving yards to opposing running backs and he should be a nice outlet for Bortles.
  • Marqise Lee- Lee caught three passes for 28 yards versus the Steelers. Lee led the team in targets, but didn’t look great most of the game. The Patriots have allowed the fifth most fantasy points this year to opposing wide receivers, but the Jaguars passing game has been hit or miss and the lead receiver could be anyone any given week.
  • Keelan Cole- Cole caught one pass for 45 yards versus the Steelers. Cole only caught one of his two targets, but it was a very impressive route and catch that set up a touchdown. He is boom or bust, but I trust him at his price.
  • Dede Westbrook- Westbrook caught one pass for eight yards versus the Steelers. Westbrook fell a bit left out with Lee back. That could always change as Bortles has relied upon him heavily at times this season, but he is very boom or bust.
  • Marcedes Lewis- Lewis did not record a catch on one target versus Pittsburgh. He should not be rostered unless you are completely punting the position.

New England Patriots

  • Tom Brady- Brady threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns versus the Titans. Brady was absolutely surgical in dismantling the Titans secondary. He was good in virtually every aspect of the game. He gets a much tougher test this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars allowed the fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks. He is the most expensive play this week at QB, but the cost isn’t prohibitive. However, the Jags have been elite this year against the pass, so I would go a different direction.
  • Dion Lewis- Dion Lewis ran for 62 yards on fifteen carries and caught nine of ten targets for 79 yards versus the Titans. If there is a weak point in this Jacksonville defense, it is against the run. Lewis has been a vital part of the Patriots success and is likely the best way for them to attack this defense. He is expensive this week, but this is where I would pay up. Belichick screwed with fantasy owners last week, but in an important game that should be closer, I would expect him to rely on Lewis.
  • Brandon Bolden- Bolden rushed for 27 yards and a touchdown on four carries versus the Titans. I don’t expect Bolden to be a factor this week, but with Belichick, who knows?
  • James White- White rushed for eleven yards and a touchdown and hauled in four passes for 29 yards and another score versus the Titans.
  • Brandin Cooks- Cooks caught three passes for 32 yards versus the Titans. Cooks struggled to get open last week and this week will likely be no different against Jalen Ramsey. Fade.
  • Chris Hogan- Hogan caught one pass for four yards versus the Titans. Hogan gets the easier of the two elite corners in AJ Bouye, but that doesn’t mean he will be any better of a play. Fade.
  • Danny Amendola- Amendola caught eleven passes for 112 yards versus the Titans. Amendola was huge for the Patriots, but the Jaguars are no slouch in the passing game. Aaron Colvin will likely get the matchup versus him and while he is an above average cover corner, he is definitely not close to the talent level of Bouye and Ramsey. Some risk here, but this is the Patriots wide receiver to play unless you are going to fade the bunch.
  • Rob Gronkowski- Gronk caught six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown versus the Titans. GRonk will likely have the largest ownership percentage this weekend, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should fade him. The Jaguars are average against opposing tight ends and Gronk has looked like his vintage self. Don’t forget, last week Steelers tight ends caught a total of eleven passes for 124 yards against Jacksonville last week.

 

Prediction:  Patriots win 24-20.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field(Philadelphia)Sun. 1-21 @ 6:40 pm ESTOver/Under: 38.5

   Weather

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3), Saturday, 6:40 pm EST.

Last Meeting (10/23/16): Eagles won 21-10. Sam Bradford threw for 224 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. Jerick McKinnon rushed for 43 yards on eleven carries. Cordarrelle Patterson caught seven passes for 67 yards and a touchdown. Carson Wentz threw for 138 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Ryan Mathews rushed for 56 yards on fourteen carries. Dorial Green-Beckham caught two passes for eight yards and a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings

  • Case Keenum- Keenum threw for 318 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Keenum did enough to keep the Vikings in the game, but his stat line was enhanced by the final play. Keenum has been a up and down fantasy option this year, but is a decent play this week versus an Eagles team that is great against the run, but beatable through the air at times. With three incredibly strong defenses playing this week, offense will be tough to come by.
  • Latavius Murray- Latavius Murray rushed for 50 yards and a touchdown on nineteen carries. Murray struggled to break many big runs and really just pounded the Saints little by little. He gets an Eagles run defense that allowed the second fewest points per games to opposing running backs this year and just shut down Devonta Freeman. He will get consistent carries, but the finally score maybe a bit low.
  • Jerick McKinnon- McKinnon rushed for 34 yards and a touchdown on eight carries. McKinnon also hauled in three passes. He looked better than Murray did most of the game and could be a sneaky play this week. While, the Eagles have stifled opposing running backs this year, they have allowed the second most receiving touchdowns to opposing RBs this year, including one last week. 
  • Stefon Diggs- Stefon Diggs caught six passes for 137 yards and a touchdown. Ok, can we please stop calling any play that has an “M” somehow attached to the team/city a “Miracle.” That wasn’t a “Minneapolis Miracle,” unless there was an Angel that pushed Marcus Williams in the back and forced him to miss that tackle. There is only one “Miracle” that has happened in sports and it happened on ice. Ok, I am glad I got that off my chest. Diggs was decent prior to Williams seeing the face of God in the turf, but most of his production came on that one play. The Eagles have been in the top ten for most catches and receiving yards allowed this year and Diggs has been the better of the two main wideouts down the stretch, so he makes for a nice play this week.
  • Adam Thielen- Thielen caught six passes for 74 yards. In spite of being shadowed by Marcus Lattimore much of the game, Thielen was very good. He was highly targeted and a real threat against the Saints defense. He gets an Eagles secondary that is the poorest of the remaining teams. He is a nice play as well this week.
  • Kyle Rudolph- Rudolph caught five passes for for 28 yards. The overall numbers don’t look good, but Rudolph was finally apart of the game plan for the Vikings for the first time in weeks. He received eight targets and is a much cheaper play than the two elite tight ends. The Eagles have been ok against the position this year, but they have allowed the most points to the position of the remaining teams.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Nick Foles- Nick Foles threw for 246 yards. In spite of the lackluster stat line, Foles actually played pretty well. He was very efficient and didn't make any real mistakes. Unfortunately for him, he gets a Minnesota defense that allowed the third fewest point to opposing quarterbacks. He may be the contrarian play of all contrarian plays this week, but that isn’t a good thing in this case.
  • Jay Ajayi- Jay Ajayi ran for 54 yards on fifteen carries and caught three passes for 44 yards. Ajayi ran hard and well against a tough Falcons run defense. In the end he helped put away Atlanta. If the Eagles are going to win this game, he will need to be very good again. While he is obviously the best back on the team, he is in a timeshare with Blount and Clement and in spite of getting the larger workload, it puts a dent in his ceiling. The Vikings allowed the fewest points per game to opposing running backs and by far the fewest points in the passing game to the position. I am fading all Eagles running backs.
  • Alshon Jeffery- Alshon Jeffery caught four passes for 61 yards. Jeffery was Foles’ main target, but that didn’t lead to much as the ball was spread around quite a bit. He likely will draw Xavier Rhodes who has been fantastic once again against team’s best receiver.
  • Nelson Agholor- Nelson Agholor caught three passes for 24 yards. Agholor caught all three of his targets, but has been limited by Foles in the offense as of late. Not to say that Foles doesn’t look for him, but this is a different offense without Wentz. The Vikings are very good against receivers out of the slot, so I would likely fade Agholor as well.
  • Torrey Smith- Smith is a punt play because of his cheap price. He will likely see the weakest point of the defense which is Trae Waynes who is just an average cover corner. No one will be playing Smith, so if you are looking for that cheap option to fit more expensive players, you could do worse. 
  • Zach Ertz- Ertz caught three passes for 32 yards. Ertz continues to be the go-to-guy for Foles, but that has been hit or miss in terms of production. He will likely be relied upon once again, but he is a bit risky because of the conservative nature the offense has taken under Foles.

 

Prediction: Vikings win 23-16.

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