Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9), Saturday, 3:05 pm EST.
Last Meeting (9/27/15): Patriots won 51-17. Blake Bortles threw for 242 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. TJ Yeldon rushed for 33 yards on eleven carries. Allen Hurns caught two passes for 70 yards and a touchdown. Tom Brady threw for 358 yards and two touchdowns. Legarrette Blount rushed for 78 yards and three touchdowns on eighteen carries. Rob Gronkowski caught four passes for 101 yards.
- Blake Bortles- Bortles threw for 214 yards and a touchdown. Bortles was a perfect game manager, allowing the defense and running game to carry the Jaguars to a big win in Pittsburgh. The Patriots gave up the seventh most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season and will likely try and stack the box to force Bortles to throw. It is unlikely he goes off, but with how cheap he is there is nice value here.
- Leonard Fournette- Fournette rushed for 109 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries versus the Steelers. The defense help the offense out quite a bit, but Fournette was also very good at attacking the center of the Pittsburgh defense that had struggled since the loss of Ryan Shazier. He gets a Patriots defense that allowed the second fewest rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs, but he will be a big part of the game plan and should return value as long as Bortles can keep the defense honest.
- T.J. Yeldon- Yeldon caught three passes for 57 yards versus the Steelers. He is mostly a punt play, but could be a sneaky one at that. The Patriots gave up the second most receiving yards to opposing running backs and he should be a nice outlet for Bortles.
- Marqise Lee- Lee caught three passes for 28 yards versus the Steelers. Lee led the team in targets, but didn’t look great most of the game. The Patriots have allowed the fifth most fantasy points this year to opposing wide receivers, but the Jaguars passing game has been hit or miss and the lead receiver could be anyone any given week.
- Keelan Cole- Cole caught one pass for 45 yards versus the Steelers. Cole only caught one of his two targets, but it was a very impressive route and catch that set up a touchdown. He is boom or bust, but I trust him at his price.
- Dede Westbrook- Westbrook caught one pass for eight yards versus the Steelers. Westbrook fell a bit left out with Lee back. That could always change as Bortles has relied upon him heavily at times this season, but he is very boom or bust.
- Marcedes Lewis- Lewis did not record a catch on one target versus Pittsburgh. He should not be rostered unless you are completely punting the position.
New England Patriots
- Tom Brady- Brady threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns versus the Titans. Brady was absolutely surgical in dismantling the Titans secondary. He was good in virtually every aspect of the game. He gets a much tougher test this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars allowed the fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks. He is the most expensive play this week at QB, but the cost isn’t prohibitive. However, the Jags have been elite this year against the pass, so I would go a different direction.
- Dion Lewis- Dion Lewis ran for 62 yards on fifteen carries and caught nine of ten targets for 79 yards versus the Titans. If there is a weak point in this Jacksonville defense, it is against the run. Lewis has been a vital part of the Patriots success and is likely the best way for them to attack this defense. He is expensive this week, but this is where I would pay up. Belichick screwed with fantasy owners last week, but in an important game that should be closer, I would expect him to rely on Lewis.
- Brandon Bolden- Bolden rushed for 27 yards and a touchdown on four carries versus the Titans. I don’t expect Bolden to be a factor this week, but with Belichick, who knows?
- James White- White rushed for eleven yards and a touchdown and hauled in four passes for 29 yards and another score versus the Titans.
- Brandin Cooks- Cooks caught three passes for 32 yards versus the Titans. Cooks struggled to get open last week and this week will likely be no different against Jalen Ramsey. Fade.
- Chris Hogan- Hogan caught one pass for four yards versus the Titans. Hogan gets the easier of the two elite corners in AJ Bouye, but that doesn’t mean he will be any better of a play. Fade.
- Danny Amendola- Amendola caught eleven passes for 112 yards versus the Titans. Amendola was huge for the Patriots, but the Jaguars are no slouch in the passing game. Aaron Colvin will likely get the matchup versus him and while he is an above average cover corner, he is definitely not close to the talent level of Bouye and Ramsey. Some risk here, but this is the Patriots wide receiver to play unless you are going to fade the bunch.
- Rob Gronkowski- Gronk caught six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown versus the Titans. GRonk will likely have the largest ownership percentage this weekend, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should fade him. The Jaguars are average against opposing tight ends and Gronk has looked like his vintage self. Don’t forget, last week Steelers tight ends caught a total of eleven passes for 124 yards against Jacksonville last week.
Prediction: Patriots win 24-20.