Recently I dreamt about Barry Bonds. At-bat after at-bat he either hit MONSTER home runs or WHIFFED in epic fashion.  What a dream.  The seven-time MVP and most dominant player I ever saw, pummeling the ball repeatedly or sliding to one knee with a coiled swing like a cobra. 

In the dream, Roger Clemens was throwing blazing fastballs that were reaching 150 MPH on the gun.  Not made up like Sidd Finch.  Real blazing nasty stuff with movement.  Bonds was swinging as hard as he could.  With two strikes, Clemens raised his game.  Reared back.  Bonds focused and started the bat early. JUICE on JUICE. 

Bonds connected…and…both players EXPLODED.

I woke up.  Cold sweat.  Breathing like I had just been through a heavy weight bout. 

NOW THAT’S ENTERTAINMENT.

We saw those epic explosions last season.   Everyone seems to want more home runs.  Well, maybe not fantasy baseball players.  The explosion of home runs is confusing me.  So let’s take a deeper dive into what happened last year in both hitting and pitching.  Then find how it correlates to you understanding of projections and category targets to get to the correct targets for your 2020 leagues.

I have been playing fantasy baseball since 1989, when Ken Griffey Jr was starting and the juice man himself, Jose Canseco, went 40-40 as the most valuable fantasy baseball player.  Yep…30+ years playing fantasy baseball.  In each year, I find both projections and category targets to be incredibly important to the success in drafting winning fantasy baseball teams.  However, you need to use them carefully knowing that projections are flawed in many ways which can bring you to the wrong category targets. 

Specifically, (1) the game changes constantly and projectionists do not always catch up or get it right; (2) the human element of players can never be included like when a player is traded or a contract year is upon us; (3) upside cannot be included in projections as the goal is to be right; (4) hype is often included way too much; (5) many projections are a regurgitation of the previous year's stats with minor changes and most consensus projections look like that. 

The Changing Game

Anyone who listens to Colton & The Wolfman or has been following my twitter has seen the “Juiced Ball Update”.  Last season, we noticed in May that there was again an explosion on home runs for hitters, but what was not seen as closely was the explosion of Ks for pitchers and the increase in the league average ERA up to a crazy 4.41.  This changes strategy more than whether there is a regression in home runs in MLB in 2020.

So, let’s look at home runs first and then the pitching side and then draw some conclusions.

As you can see from the chart above, home runs were up 62% since 2014 with only one decline year in 2018. Why the drop in 2018?  Well, there was the humidor being used.  There were the balls being made less tightly wound, allegedly.  Umpires were instructed to squeeze the strike zone.  All factors.

The explosion in 2019 can be potentially explained by balls being wound tighter again, restrictions on pitchers, video training for plane swinging and of course, teams that were using electronic devices and buzzers to trigger a Pavlovian response to swing or not to swing caused some more long balls.  All these are factors, but how do we quantify that and how do we predict what will happen in 2020?  We will get to that soon enough.

Even if the number of home runs goes back to 2018 numbers, 5600 home runs is still a ton more than stolen bases.  Let’s have a look there, figure out how many of these were on active rosters to decide which is more important and by how much.

I am hyper-sensitive to stolen bases and less sensitive to home runs since there are more, and they come by accident from the waiver wire a lot easier than stolen bases.  Let’s look at last year and see what percentage of home runs and steals were on rosters for the season. 

Roster

Home Runs

Stolen Bases

2019

68.00%

67.63%

2018

64.66%

64.51%

2017

66.28%

62.45%

Although these numbers seem similar, it needs to be noted that the number of home runs was 3X more than the number of stolen bases so get your bags.  Many pundits suggest that with the rising home run numbers you need to make sure you get those.  Of course you do, but I am arguing that those will come with drafting players using the SMART System is it makes sure that you draft players on good teams who are young and the power pops for the younger crowd.

A major flaw in projections is that they do not consider the changing game. Here are three trends in Major League Baseball that affect what we do for projections: (1) hitters are sacrificing batting average for home runs more each year; (2) more teams are employing defensive tactics like the shift which is lowering batting averages; (3) starting pitchers are throwing less innings because of the individual roles like bulk pitcher and opener. 

Let’s look at the offense first to see where projections are the most helpful.

Home runs are up 62% since 2014.  Stolen bases down 19%.  Strikeouts up 14.3 percent.  Runs and RBI up about 20%.  What can we conclude from this?  We need those stolen bases and need more home runs to compete.  Don’t need a focus on batting average as much since it is going down as strikeouts go up.  So low average power hitters that come for cheap are now way more important than ever before.  Pay to get players who get BOTH stolen bases and home runs since the cost of stolen base only players to the rest of your roster will cause you to fall short in the counting categories.

Now look at pitching and we get some interesting insights here too.

We did not include Wins category as there are the same number of wins every year.  It is important to understand that the wins are now being taken by middle relief and late relief pitchers more often, but there are the same number of wins.

We saw the strikeouts chart with the pitchers and obviously it is the same.  Up an average of over 1500 strikeouts per year in the last six years.  Notice that WHIP is up but has stabilized.  It is ERA that is through the roof at almost 4.50.  This coupled with the offensive data creates some important thoughts when making our category targets and deciding how to split our budgets or when to draft starting pitchers.

Facts

  • Wins are getting scooped up more by middle relief pitchers.
  • Roles are causing starting pitchers to pitch less innings.  There were only 14 pitchers with more than 200 innings pitched last year.
  • Strikeouts getting eaten by middle relievers, openers and bulk pitchers.
  • ERA rising for the bottom starters, bulk pitchers and middle relievers.  Stud starting pitchers still delivering.
  • Home runs inflated by juiced ball and sign stealing
  • Stolen bases down for seventh year in a row

Conclusions

  • Draft Starting Pitching earlier and spend more on starting pitching on the top end.  Those pitchers will allow you to dominate four of the five pitching categories.
  • Draft steals with home runs when you can
  • Draft home run only players later in the draft as you must have those
  • Batting average only players are no longer necessary.  They will not do enough to make up for the home runs that you will lose.
  • Stolen base only players are difficult to roster as well.  You need fifteen plus home runs from every player on your roster.  You can roster a 15-home run and 30 steals player, but not a 5 home run and 40 steals player.

Upside is always lost with projections. 

All projectionists try to come up with the most likely performance of all the players. This causes many to miss on the outliers.  Getting more players right means that they will have a wider margin of misses on the high-end and low-end of the spectrum. 

Here is an important corollary: be careful that you ALWAYS look for UPSIDE in your picks and then let the projections define your targeting.  That way you will always have way more stats than your projections sheet.

Hype, Stealing Signs & Regurgitation

Last year, I talked about HYPED players and referenced Vladimir Guerrero.  His 15 home runs for $25+ made him a huge bust.  I know.  I know.  Injuries happen, but with unproven players that is harder to predict.  I grabbed Bo Bichette everywhere for $1 or on reserve or from the waiver wire. Even with less than 200 ABs, I could spend $24 other dollars on players to help me win.  Players who have not played long in the majors can get WAY overhyped.  You can take them, but for $1 and not $25.  Let someone else take those risks. Hopefully, you got that point. Stay away from overhyped players. 

This year, we have a different more difficult problem.  Stealing signs.  The Astros, Red Sox and possibly other teams were relaying signs to the batter in real-time to allow hitters to know what was coming.  This could be a reason for some of the home run explosion.  If we suggest that three teams were doing this and therefore 10% of the teams had a home run edge.  This would mean that there was a boost from that we need to account for in this year’s projections and category targets.  More RBI and runs scored as well for all those hitters.  We will take down the categories slightly for this.

Regurgitation is bad.  Really bad.  Don’t use last year’s stats as your projections.  Period.  Full stop.

Support Your League Rules

Make sure your projections have the statistics that your league uses.  If your league uses holds, make sure you start with projections that have holds.  If your league uses quality starts (QS), make sure you start with projections that have QS.   Obvious, but stated just in case.

Using Projections for Targeting Players

Now, why are we doing this?  Well, it is to learn more about the players that you should target and how to build your roster.  Here is how you should use projections to target players:

First, review projections by sorting them by each category that your league uses.  Review the players from a lens of them helping your team in that category.  Look for players that others or experts are not high on and take down their names.  Getting bargains that help you in tough categories like stolen bases or saves are important for you to know about.  For instance, as of this writing both Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette are projected for double digit stolen bases even in a 110 game schedule.  Neither projected for more than $15.  Good cheap steals with home run power.

Using Projections for Targeting Categories

So now we understand the changing game and how to decide on your projections.  Now, we connect that to the categories.  Remember, knowledge is power. 

Here are some rules about setting your category targets:

  • Don’t Look at Winner for Targets:  Look at Top 25% for your target.  Finishing in the Top 25% in all categories makes you a winner in your league.
  • Category dominators: Look at players who are Category dominators and consider them when potentially down against your targets.
  • Get SBs from Every Player: When targeting hitters, make sure that you get some steals.
  • Move $$ or Drafting to Stud SPs: Target the high innings, high strikeout guys early and maybe often.
  • Don’t Dump Categories: Only the best players can win this way.  I am not one of them.  Think of myself as top 10% player, but it takes an incredible amount of skill and effort both in the draft and in-season.  If that is you, then why the heck are you reading my column?

Here is a chart that specifies the targets that I use in the leagues that I play in.  Again, you should examine your leagues to see if there are anomalies based on league members dumping categories or playing in a different way than the leagues that I play in. 

Category Targets for Your 2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft - Updated for 110 Games
League TypeRunsHRRBISBAvgWSvKERAWHIP
15 Team Mixed75021072585268605510004.001.22
12 Team Mixed78022075090270706010253.901.20
10 Team Mixed81524078090272756010503.751.18
12 Team AL Only6452006507526255458504.001.25
12 Team NL Only6101806257526055509003.951.24
12 Team Mixed SMALL Rosters5751655507027560559253.751.18

Using a Tracking Sheet for Projections & Targeting Categories

After all these years, I use some complicated tracking spreadsheets.  They are created and augmented year after year, but you can start simple, but just having a sheet with your players and the scoring categories that your league uses.  This is a sample tracking sheet from LABR last year:

AL LABR TEAM TRACKING SHEET 2019 (with Category Targets)

If you are more ambitious, you can use a track sheet that tracks all the teams each in separate by looking up projections when you type players in to the tracking sheet.  This allows you to see the whole draft, all at one time and see who is also looking for a statistic.  

AL LABR TRACKING SHEET 2019 (Showing half the teams)

Nothing replaces your ability to understand what players will do best for your team by watching games, but numbers, specifically projections and some targets for your categories can guide you to having a more balanced team when the draft is over. 

Remember, you cannot win the league at the draft, but if you are not watching the numbers, you could lose it.