Examining the A in SMART

I was not a huge Justin Timberlake fan. Over the last couple years, he has grown on me.  Not like a fungus…I mean really grown on me.  His performances on SNL as part of the “five timers” club are hysterical.  His music has gotten better than the boy band pop stuff he used to churn out.  Most importantly for me, his movie acting has elevated to a high level.  Whether it is “Bad Teacher”, “Friends with Benefits” or “Trouble with the Curve”, his acting is really becoming great.  So, last night, I watched “In Time” from 2011 starring JT and Amanda Seyfried.  In the movie, people are genetically engineered to stop aging at 25 years old. Then, they are given one-year to live.  In the ultimate class struggle of the haves and the have nots, Will Salas, played by Timberlake, is given 100 years while he is sleeping by a man whose life he saved who has lived 105 years and wants to finally die. 

So, why bother with this movie today? 

The easiest answer is it is what I do.  The more accurate answer is that since the “A” in SMART stands for Age and co-author Glenn Colton and I target 3rd and 4th year WRs who are in most cases around 25-years old, this movie fits perfectly.  So, in the words of the 105 yr old man who appears to be 25: “For a few to be immortal, many must die.”

So, let’s take a look at the list of 3rd Year WRs and give them one of three ratings:

1. IMMORTAL – will be fantasy football starters in 2013-2015 at least
2. LIVING – Players who are playing and in some cases good, but there are concerns.  They could go either way…
3. MUST DIE – Players who have timed-out and won’t be worth rostering for more than BYE week fill-ins and future value is lower than that.

Many of you are looking at this and saying: “You are crazy. Julio is IMMORTAL.”  Well, with all the hype, players who get hurt tend to get hurt again.  This injury is related to a previous injury and this athlete is likely to have nagging injuries with his feet for his whole career.  He is closer to IMMORTAL than to MUST DIE, but I felt strongly about the fact that he will be unreliable in the next couple of years. This means that others will draft him before I would based on the downgrade I will give him in my rankings for missing 3-4 games per year.

Titus Young had so much promise, but fizzled out.  The two athletes on this list that fly under the radar are Cecil Shorts and Denarius Moore.  Both play on awful teams with questionable QB play, but they are both good route runners and great athletes that I expect to be in starting lineups for the next three years.

Patients Get Better

For a couple of the players that are listed as LIVING, you might see little difference from Austin Pettis, but I think that Pettis is engrained in the slot with St Louis and they will have to throw a lot as only Zac Stacy has been able to run the ball.  That could change so we need to watch.  The lesson here is that like Will Salas in the movie “In Time”, every athlete only has a certain amount of time in which to emerge; a certain amount of time with which to sustain performance; and a certain amount of time to slip away.  As fantasy football players, we need to recognize when an athlete will become IMMORTAL; is just LIVING and when they MUST DIE.  Will Salas gets it when he is buying a Sports Car with his new found time:

Car Salesman: Price includes delivery.
Will Salas: Delivery?
Car Salesman: To wherever you wanna display it.
Will Salas: Display it? Hell, I'm gonna drive it!

So don’t have players on your roster that look good in name just to simply display them.  Have players that you will play, and for me this week, that meant picking up Denarius Moore and Austin Pettis. 

Right age.  Right trend. Game on.