Maya from Zero Dark ThirtyEach week as I spend my days and nights looking at information, watching film and overanalyzing one week of performances, my mind wanders to movies. Can’t stop thinking about the intensity of Maya in Zero Dark Thirty when she addresses the Navy Seals, “Quite frankly, I didn’t even want to use you guys, with your dip and Velcro and all your gear bulls---.  I wanted to drop a bomb.”  That is how I feel.  So freakin’ intense about winning this week, as a Jets’ fan, I am willing to load up on Patriots.  I will be loading up on players from teams playing the Jets’ all season.  How could I do that you say?  Because like Maya, I care more about my quest for killing my enemies than I do about anything else, even my favorite team salvaging some sort of dignity this season.

What does this mean for you this week and why is in important?

The Patriots came out flat last week against the Bills last week and incurred injuries to two of their main guys.  Shane Vareen has explosive and saved the game really by subbing for the butterfingers starter Stevan Ridley, but broke his wrist and will be out until week 10.  Danny Amendola had an absolutely gutsy performance as he pulled in a ton of third down conversions down the stretch to help the Patriots in their come from behind quest.  Amendola might play if it wasn’t a short week, but they couldn’t get him ready in time.

So WTF, why am I saying to get on the Patriots?

Let’s break it down.  Tom Brady is frustrated with how long it is taking the offense to get to a place that he wants.  The loss of Aaron Hernandez and recovery of Rob Gronkowski has left them without a TE option in a passing game that uses bubble screens and TEs down the seam.  He found Amendola as the go to guy and Edelman as his guy in the red zone.  Expect that some of that will change this week.  They will establish the run and then you will see Kenbrell Thompkins light up the scoreboard.  Yup, you heard it here.  He had 14 targets last week.  He was focused in practice this week on catching the balls.  Call it rookie jitters, but he is good and can be effective while Amendola and Gronk are recovering. They lost weapons.  Thompkins and Edelman are going to have a huge game tonight.  The Patriots play well at home and the Jets defense is good against the run.  So look out for those two guys tonight.

So how does that help you?

In my leagues that have a weak third WR, I picked up Edelman since he is the most sure thing.  If Kenbrell drops the first two passes to him, he could be done.  Edelman is good and sure handed so Brady will go to him a lot.

Week 2 in The Fantasy 100 – Banking on Brady

So let’s look at my favorite Salary Cap contest, The Fantasy 100.  Well, its not exactly a Salary Cap, but you do some of the same things in finding values.  In The Fantasy 100, the Top 100 athletes of the week are put into 10 Tiers.  You get Tier Points equal to the Tier of the players you pick.  You need to pick 10 players whose Tiers add up to AT LEAST 50. So, immediately I start my team with the three Patriots that will do a lot of damage and get me a lot of Tier Points.Tom Brady – QB – 7 Tier PointsKenbrell Thompkins – 9 Tier PointsNew England Defense – 4 Tier PointsThis strategy allows me to take the best players with the best matchups after that.  Here is my team pictured below.

Wolf Roster Week 2

After the Patriots, the rest of my roster is about talent and matchups.LeSean McCoy carried the ball 31 times last week and Chip Kelly said that they were slow to move to the next play.  If he doesn’t get hurt, he could be the MVP of the league.Steven Jackson is solid and has the intangible of playing versus his old team.  He practiced against them every day.  He knows their tendencies.  In 2008, I met Steven Jackson at an event and I asked him how he knows whether to cut left or right when he comes through the hole.  “Is it instinct?,” I asked.  He told me that all he has to do is see a number and since he studied film, he immediately knows the tendancies of the LBs and DBs so that he knows which way will give him the most yards.   Brandon Marshall wants to be consider the best receiver in the NFL.  That starts with wiping the floor with the easy teams.  When life throws you the Vikings in Week2, you score twice.Dez Bryant is pissed about his performance in Week 1.  He is going to have a monster day.  We get a nice discount because of the ankle injury and the double teams that he saw on Sunday night.Julius Thomas is a value pick only.  Don’t think he can have the kind of day he had last week, but he certainly can have a better than average day which is all I need.  No one will give more value at TE than Thomas.Jamal Charles is great value in Tier 4.  The minor injury is not a lot to worry about and the Cowboys Defense got overrated because the New York Giants played without Running Backs on Sunday night.  Charles is still a Top 5 RB and getting him in Tier 4 makes me smile! Finally, Darren McFadden.  Pundits are saying that Pryor replaces him as running threat.  Maybe, but they are playing the Jaguars.  They may as well be playing the bar team in Mark Wahlberg’s “Invincable”.  The Jaguars are not good.  Look for a play or two against them EVERY week.

So what is the lesson here?

Look, you either buy into or hate all my talk about strategy.  Today, the point is that when determining who will have a big game, look and TARGET players that play against the worst teams in the NFL.  That is how you find your Osama bin Laden. How do I know?  Well like the Navy Seals said before they went to kill the target.Navy Seal Justin: “What part convinced you?”Navy Seal Pat: “Her confidence.”Navy Seal Justin: “That’s just the kind of concrete data point I’m looking for.  I’ll tell you buddy, if her confidence is the one thing that’s keeping me from getting raped in a Pakistani prison, I’m gonna be honest with you, bro. I’m cool with that. ” So the Patriots find their TARGET in Kenbrell Thompkins & Julian Edelman tonight.  
Rick Wolf, Co-Host of Colton & The Wolfman - Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio The Fantasy 100Rick Wolf is a leader in the fantasy sports industry. Wolf is a founding Board Member and one of only fifteen FSTA Hall of Famers including Bill James and Matthew Berry. Wolf’s career accomplishments include starting the fantasy sports division at SportsLine USA that became CBS SportsLine, incubating Rotoworld to become the #1 fantasy sports news site, and spearheading the sale of Allstar Stats/Rotoworld to NBC Sports in 2006.  With college friend and fellow Hall of Famer, Glenn Colton, the team has won 7 expert titles in baseball and football.Twitter: RickWolf1