I never thought this week’s Target Analysis would have so many implications for fantasy championships, but injuries and ineffectiveness have vaulted the likes of Breshad Perriman into must-start territory, while fantasy stalwarts like Julian Edelman , Kenny Golladay , D.J. Moore and Adam Thielen look incredibly risky. Let’s take a look.
| Player | Team | Games | Position | Targets | Rec | Yards | TDs | Drops | Catch % | ADoT | Yards Per Target | Yards Per Receptions | Red Zone Targets | Red Zone Receptions | Fantasy Points |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 14 | WR | 155 | 133 | 1552 | 8 | 6 | 85.8 | 7.96 | 10.01 | 11.67 | 33 | 25 | 335.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HST | 14 | WR | 138 | 99 | 1142 | 7 | 6 | 71.7 | 10.83 | 8.28 | 11.54 | 27 | 14 | 257 |
| Julian Edelman | NE | 14 | WR | 135 | 92 | 1019 | 6 | 10 | 68.1 | 9.16 | 7.55 | 11.08 | 38 | 20 | 232.6 |
| Allen Robinson II | CHI | 14 | WR | 130 | 83 | 1023 | 7 | 3 | 63.8 | 12.05 | 7.87 | 12.33 | 28 | 14 | 227.3 |
| D.J. Moore | CAR | 14 | WR | 128 | 86 | 1174 | 4 | 5 | 67.2 | 11.91 | 9.17 | 13.65 | 31 | 15 | 231.4 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 14 | WR | 127 | 90 | 1046 | 5 | 5 | 70.9 | 10.49 | 8.24 | 11.62 | 32 | 21 | 226.7 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 13 | WR | 123 | 82 | 1150 | 6 | 4 | 66.7 | 12.41 | 9.35 | 14.02 | 26 | 17 | 232.7 |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | 14 | TE | 122 | 84 | 888 | 6 | 5 | 68.9 | 8.98 | 7.28 | 10.57 | 28 | 16 | 208.8 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | 14 | WR | 121 | 76 | 859 | 3 | 5 | 62.8 | 9.72 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 25 | 16 | 182.2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | CLV | 14 | WR | 118 | 67 | 910 | 2 | 7 | 56.8 | 12.7 | 7.71 | 13.58 | 27 | 9 | 171 |
| Cooper Kupp | LA | 14 | WR | 118 | 83 | 1031 | 8 | 3 | 70.3 | 7.25 | 8.74 | 12.42 | 29 | 19 | 234.5 |
| Jarvis Landry | CLV | 14 | WR | 117 | 74 | 1018 | 5 | 5 | 63.2 | 10.27 | 8.7 | 13.76 | 31 | 20 | 206.8 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 14 | TE | 115 | 86 | 1131 | 4 | 4 | 74.8 | 9.95 | 9.83 | 13.15 | 29 | 16 | 229.5 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 13 | WR | 114 | 67 | 1157 | 8 | 7 | 58.8 | 15.67 | 10.15 | 17.27 | 34 | 15 | 230.7 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 14 | WR | 114 | 86 | 1333 | 9 | 1 | 75.4 | 10.32 | 11.69 | 15.5 | 24 | 17 | 274.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 14 | RB | 112 | 94 | 814 | 4 | 5 | 83.9 | 0.61 | 7.27 | 8.66 | 17 | 12 | 414.1 |
| John Brown | BUF | 14 | WR | 110 | 71 | 1007 | 5 | 4 | 64.5 | 14.19 | 9.15 | 14.18 | 27 | 13 | 202.1 |
| Robert Woods | LA | 13 | WR | 108 | 75 | 950 | 1 | 2 | 69.4 | 8.18 | 8.8 | 12.67 | 15 | 6 | 192 |
| D.J. Chark Jr. | JAX | 13 | WR | 102 | 67 | 956 | 8 | 1 | 65.7 | 13.06 | 9.37 | 14.27 | 31 | 14 | 212.6 |
| Darren Waller | OAK | 14 | TE | 102 | 80 | 1002 | 3 | 4 | 78.4 | 7.68 | 9.82 | 12.53 | 17 | 11 | 198.7 |
| Jamison Crowder | NYJ | 14 | WR | 100 | 66 | 708 | 5 | 7 | 66 | 7.8 | 7.08 | 10.73 | 19 | 11 | 167.2 |
| Kenny Golladay | DET | 14 | WR | 99 | 56 | 1052 | 10 | 4 | 56.6 | 16.42 | 10.63 | 18.79 | 31 | 11 | 221.2 |
| Amari Cooper | DAL | 14 | WR | 99 | 71 | 1073 | 8 | 5 | 71.7 | 13.24 | 10.84 | 15.11 | 18 | 12 | 226.3 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 14 | WR | 97 | 63 | 1019 | 6 | 3 | 64.9 | 12.49 | 10.51 | 16.17 | 29 | 15 | 202.6 |
| Davante Adams | GB | 10 | WR | 96 | 63 | 788 | 4 | 7 | 65.6 | 10.32 | 8.21 | 12.51 | 24 | 15 | 165.8 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | 14 | WR | 95 | 75 | 994 | 7 | 3 | 78.9 | 13.27 | 10.46 | 13.25 | 31 | 19 | 215.9 |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | 12 | WR | 95 | 56 | 911 | 3 | 10 | 58.9 | 13.17 | 9.59 | 16.27 | 20 | 9 | 165.1 |
| DeVante Parker | MIA | 14 | WR | 95 | 59 | 954 | 8 | 4 | 62.1 | 14.56 | 10.04 | 16.17 | 26 | 14 | 202.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | CAR | 14 | WR | 93 | 49 | 588 | 6 | 7 | 52.7 | 14.68 | 6.32 | 12 | 24 | 8 | 162.4 |
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | 13 | WR | 91 | 63 | 866 | 7 | 3 | 69.2 | 13.88 | 9.52 | 13.75 | 22 | 12 | 195 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARZ | 14 | WR | 91 | 67 | 711 | 3 | 0 | 73.6 | 7.99 | 7.81 | 10.61 | 17 | 9 | 156.1 |
| George Kittle | SF | 12 | TE | 91 | 73 | 888 | 4 | 1 | 80.2 | 5.95 | 9.76 | 12.16 | 20 | 14 | 187.3 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | DET | 13 | WR | 90 | 62 | 779 | 9 | 3 | 68.9 | 13.74 | 8.66 | 12.56 | 27 | 18 | 193.9 |
| Leonard Fournette | JAX | 14 | RB | 90 | 73 | 488 | 0 | 4 | 81.1 | 0.12 | 5.42 | 6.68 | 12 | 9 | 247.9 |
| Cole Beasley | BUF | 14 | WR | 88 | 60 | 670 | 6 | 6 | 68.2 | 7.88 | 7.61 | 11.17 | 15 | 13 | 163 |
| Danny Amendola | DET | 13 | WR | 88 | 58 | 641 | 1 | 5 | 65.9 | 8.64 | 7.28 | 11.05 | 16 | 10 | 128.1 |
| Tarik Cohen | CHI | 14 | RB | 88 | 67 | 387 | 3 | 5 | 76.1 | 1.94 | 4.4 | 5.78 | 10 | 6 | 142.2 |
| Mark Andrews | BLT | 14 | TE | 88 | 58 | 759 | 8 | 5 | 65.9 | 11.28 | 8.63 | 13.09 | 26 | 16 | 181.9 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | 14 | RB | 87 | 78 | 892 | 8 | 1 | 89.7 | 1.47 | 10.25 | 11.44 | 15 | 12 | 283.2 |
| Stefon Diggs | MIN | 14 | WR | 86 | 60 | 1075 | 5 | 6 | 69.8 | 15.41 | 12.5 | 17.92 | 23 | 10 | 203.6 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | SF | 15 | WR | 86 | 60 | 783 | 5 | 1 | 69.8 | 10.78 | 9.1 | 13.05 | 19 | 11 | 168.3 |
| Christian Kirk | ARZ | 11 | WR | 86 | 61 | 649 | 3 | 1 | 70.9 | 9.37 | 7.55 | 10.64 | 18 | 12 | 151.7 |
| D.K. Metcalf | SEA | 14 | WR | 85 | 52 | 819 | 6 | 6 | 61.2 | 13.85 | 9.64 | 15.75 | 25 | 9 | 171 |
| Dede Westbrook | JAX | 13 | WR | 85 | 57 | 583 | 2 | 4 | 67.1 | 7.24 | 6.86 | 10.23 | 15 | 6 | 130 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 12 | RB | 85 | 73 | 485 | 1 | 2 | 85.9 | 0.35 | 5.71 | 6.64 | 10 | 7 | 201.3 |
| James White | NE | 13 | RB | 83 | 65 | 588 | 4 | 2 | 78.3 | 2.2 | 7.08 | 9.05 | 21 | 18 | 179.2 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | 13 | WR | 82 | 51 | 833 | 7 | 7 | 62.2 | 14.87 | 10.16 | 16.33 | 22 | 12 | 176.3 |
| Robby Anderson | NYJ | 14 | WR | 81 | 47 | 728 | 4 | 1 | 58 | 16.43 | 8.99 | 15.49 | 20 | 6 | 144.2 |
| Sammy Watkins | KC | 12 | WR | 81 | 49 | 637 | 3 | 4 | 60.5 | 9.46 | 7.86 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 131.9 |
| Anthony Miller | CHI | 14 | WR | 78 | 50 | 649 | 2 | 4 | 64.1 | 10.5 | 8.32 | 12.98 | 16 | 10 | 126.8 |
| Auden Tate | CIN | 12 | WR | 78 | 40 | 575 | 1 | 5 | 51.3 | 12.86 | 7.37 | 14.38 | 23 | 7 | 103.5 |
Targets Analysis
- Anthony Miller , Allen Robinson and Tarik Cohen dominated the targets from Mitchell Trubisky Sunday, for whatever that is worth. All three appear to be treatable, even if touchdowns figure to be hard to come by. Miller could also see fewer targets if Taylor Gabriel can return from his injury.
- Julian Edelman remains third in the NFL in targets despite only getting five last week. Edelman is dealing with knee and shoulder injuries, and while I'd love to chalk his performance up to those injuries, I don't see how you can trust him in Week 16.
- Travis Kelce , George Kittle and Tyler Higbee combined for 44 targets, 36 receptions, 387 yards and zero touchdowns Sunday. Higbee probably doesn't belong in the conversation with those other two, but he has 25 targets over his last two games. He certainly feels safe for fantasy with Gerald Everett out.
- Sunday may have been the first day we've ever gotten questions about sitting Julio Jones during the FantasyAlarm Start/Sit chat, and after he caught 13 of 20 targets, those questions should go away. Other teams may do more to keep the ball out of Julio's hands with Calvin Ridley out, but it's nice to know Julio is still capable of these kinds of games. With that performance, Julio is up to eighth in the NFL in targets.
- D.J. Moore and Tyler Boyd are fourth and ninth in targets respectively, but good luck predicting how many targets they'll get in 2020. Moore, at least, has a chance to have the same quarterback and skill players around him. But even if that is the case, there's no telling how his next coach will decide to use him. Moore is a good player, but I suspect he will be over-drafted based on his usage this season. For this week, I think he is Kenny Golladay . Golladay managed to have two good games with David Blough at quarterback, but last week, the bottom fell out against the worst pass defense in the NFL. I would rather play Golladay this week, but I think it’s awfully close. We’ve seen Moore’s ceiling this season, but I fear we are about to see his floor.
- Speaking of Golladay, he actually took a back seat to Danny Amendola on Sunday. Amendola had eight catches on 13 targets against the Bucs, giving him at least eight targets in all three games with David Blough. Amendola still hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1, but the targets and receptions should still be there.
- I think people may be surprised to see Odell Beckham is 12th in the NFL in targets, two behind teammate Jarvis Landry .
- Don’t look now, but Brandin Cooks showed signs of life on Sunday. His four catches for 46 yards were nothing to write home about, but his eight targets were his most since Week 4. I suspect Cooks will slide down draft boards next year because he burned so many fantasy players this season, and I will certainly be interested in taking a shot if the price is right.
- O.J. Howard ’s Week 15 line is identical to Brandin Cooks ’s. Howard had a season-high eight targets, which is not what we envisioned when we drafted him. He has actually been pretty consistent of late, with at least four receptions and 46 yards in three straight games. I feel surprisingly good about playing him this week, even if I am skeptical Bruce Arians will ever turn him loose no matter how many wide receivers are injured.
- We got a lot of questions about Stefon Diggs in Sunday’s Start/Sit chat, but the most surprising one was from someone who was desperate for upside but was thinking about sitting Diggs. Diggs has been quite inconsistent, both with Adam Thielen in the lineup and out, but there is no doubting his ceiling. He has at least 120 receiving yards in four games this season, and while I hate the matchup against Green Bay, I will have an awfully hard time benching Diggs and his upside. Adam Thielen ’s ceiling is just as high as Diggs’s, but I am much more reticent to play Thielen after he managed just three targets in his first game back from injury.