NFL Target Analysis Week 8

We had a quiet trade deadline for receivers, but there was some important news this week, with Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco making way for Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen . We won’t really know how those moves will affect the Cincinnati and Denver pass catchers, and while I’m not convinced it will hurt them, I don’t really expect it to help them. As we always say, getting targets is always important, but the context of those targets is equally important.

Target Breakdown

• It’s probably not going to matter in the long run, but I do think it’s worth noting that Noah Fant led the Broncos with eight targets Sunday. Denver probably isn’t going to score enough touchdowns for Fant to really be useful for fantasy, but somebody has to pick up the targets Emmanuel Sanders left behind, and for one game at least, that somebody was Fant.
• Christian Kirk had a 33-percent target share Sunday, and he caught eight of 11 targets for 79 yards. It was the third time in five games he had at least 11 targets. Kirk still hasn’t scored a touchdown this season, and I hate his schedule the next five weeks, but he has clearly reaffirmed himself in the WR3 conversation, along with approximately 25 other receivers.
• Auden Tate had 13 targets, but he only had five receptions, compared to six each for Alex Erickson , Tyler Eifert and Tyler Boyd . It sounds like A.J. Green is likely to return following the Week 9 bye, and both Tate and Erickson are droppable as a result. That being said, I think they’re both worth holding onto for dynasty leagues, and I’ll look to pick them back up if Green or Boyd suffers another injury.
• Maybe now we can admit Chris Godwin was never actually better than Mike Evans ? Evans caught 11 of 12 targets for 198 yards and two touchdowns, while Godwin caught four of eight targets for 43 yards. Godwin is a fine WR2, and he may even be more consistent than Mike Evans , but I don’t think there’s any doubt who is the better fantasy play going forward.
• It was nice to see Julio Jones set new season highs with 12 targets, 10 receptions and 152 yards. Jones did not score, which may be a continuing theme if Matt Ryan is out, but he should still have a high floor with the backup in the game, a la Michael Thomas this season.
• Speaking of Thomas, he caught all 11 of his targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. Thomas is my WR1 for the rest of the season, especially considering he faces Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Carolina and Atlanta in his next four games following the Week 9 bye.
• D.J. Chark bounced back after a couple of three-catch games to catch six of 12 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown. I’m still not ready to declare him an every-week starter, but I think he’ll have a big game against Houston in Week 9.
• Curtis Samuel led the Panthers with 11 targets, catching four for 46 yards. D.J. Moore caught five of nine targets for 38 yards. This was obviously a poor matchup, but things don’t get much better with Tennessee and Green Bay on the upcoming schedule. It would likely benefit both players to get Cam Newton back, though even then, they are both WR3s until further notice.
• Believe it or not, NFL coaches do not always tell the truth. I don’t blame anyone who benched Keenan Allen due to his poor matchup and reportedly limited workload, but he still managed seven catches on 10 targets for 53 yards. I’ll gladly take that kind of production over rolling the dice on guys like Corey Davis or Diontae Johnson.
• Darren Waller caught his third touchdown in two weeks Sunday, but he only had two catches on eight targets. He has at least eight targets in five of seven games, and while Sunday’s performance showed he can be as volatile as anyone else at his position, he clearly belongs with the elite tight ends.
• We got a lot of questions about Ryan Tannehill and his receivers in Sunday’s FantasyAlarm Start/Sit chat. I tried to talk everyone out of Tannehill, which turned out to be wrong because he accounted for all three of Tennessee’s touchdowns. Of course, I don’t expect that to happen, and I was correct to tell you not to start Corey Davis , Adam Humphries and A.J. Brown. Brown saved his day with a touchdown but he only had two receptions for 11 yards. The sad part is Brown had more receiving yards than Corey Davis . In any case, the really interesting player here is Jonnu Smith . Smith led the Titans with six receptions on seven targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. He’s a borderline TE1 for as long as Delanie Walker is out, and I think he has a chance to develop into a useable fantasy tight end even when Walker returns.
• Danny Amendola has eight receptions and at least 95 yards in each of the last two games. Even so, I’d have to be awfully desperate to play him for fantasy. I don’t want to mess with the third wide receiver in this offense, and I think it’s telling that Amendola has just one touchdown this season.