11-Game Slate | Tip-off (7:00pm EST)

BKN -6.5 @ CLE T: 222

MIL -3.5 @ IND T: 218.5

DET @ BOS -6.5 T: 212.5

PHI -9.5 @ NYK T: 222.5

WAS @ TOR -11 T: 233

HOU -3.5 @ MIN T: 227.5

MEM @ CHI -1.5 T: 209

MIA @ DAL -2.5 T: 209

SAC @ DEN -7.5 T: 231.5

PHX @ LAC -7.5 T: 229.5

GS -3 @ POR T: 234.5

 

D. Lillard (POR) outscores S. Curry (GSW) in Wednesday’s game. Yes 2.5x // No 2.5x

NO. Lillard is averaging 26.3 PPG this season compared to 28.5 PPG for Steph Curry. In their two head-to-head matchups this season, each was outscored by the other once. FantasyAlarm has Steph projected to outscore Damian Lillard by 1.2 points, and that’s enough to tip the scales for me.

GSW wins Wednesday’s game by 8 or more points. Yes 2.5x // No 2.5x

NO. The line on this game is GSW -3, down from GSW -4.5 at the start of the day. I would need a much better payout to lay 7.5 points.

SAC wins Wednesday’s game. Yes 5x // No 1.5x

YES. The Kings money line is +295 for this game. Gary Harris is out again for Denver, while Isaiah Thomas is set to make his return. If Thomas takes minutes away from Monte Morris , that could actually help the Kings as well. The smart move may be to say No in a double up and Yes in a GPP, but if I have to pick one, I’m chasing the big payout.

N. Jokic (DEN) records more assists than D. Fox (SAC) in Wednesday’s game. Yes 2.5x // No 2.5x

NO. Jokic is averaging 7.7 assists on the season compared to 7.1 for De’Aaron Fox. Over the last 30 days, Jokic leads Fox 8.1 assists to 6.5 assists. They have split two head-to-head matchups this season. The Kings rank 9th in opponents’ assists per 100 possessions while Denver ranks 21st. It also helps that a tie goes to Fox.

J. Harden (HOU) scores 30 or more points in Wednesday’s game (@SAC). Yes 1.8x // No 4.2x

YES. Harden has scored 30 or more points in 30 straight games, a streak that has endured even after Chris Paul ’s return. In his only game against Minnesota this season, Harden had 29 points. Even at those odds, I don’t think I can bring myself to bet against Harden. It doesn’t hurt that we have him projected for 35.4 points.

MIN wins Wednesday’s game (vs HOU). Yes 4x // No 1.8x

YES. If I picked SAC at 5x when their Vegas money line was +295, I have to pick MIN at 4x when the Vegas money line is MIN +149. Minnesota has already beated Houston at home once this season, and that was with a healthy Clint Capela shooting 11-14 from the floor. I think Karl-Anthony Towns is going to have a huge game, and will give his team an excellent chance to win.

L. Doncic (DAL) records at least 20 points & 8 assists in Wednesday’s game? YES 3x // NO 2x.

NO. Doncic has had at least 20 points and eight assists in five of his last 14 games but two of his five since Dennis Smith Jr. was traded away. Miami has allowed the second fewest assists per game in the NBA this season and the third fewest points.

H. Whiteside (MIA) records at least 10 rebounds & 2 blocks in Wednesday’s game. Yes 2.8x // No 2.2x

NO. You could argue Whiteside is due after failing to record a block in each of his last two games. Then again, he is averaging just 21 minutes over his last two games, and if his minutes are down again, I will feel much better about this call. Whiteside has at least 10 rebounds and two blocks in five of his last 14 games, and Dallas ranks seventh in opponents’ blocks and 11th in opponents’ points.

B. Beal (WAS) outscores K. Leonard (TOR) in Wednesday’s game (@ BKN) Yes 3.5x // No 2x.

YES. Leonard has been ruled out for Wednesday’s game.

TOR wins Wednesday’s game by 10 or more points (vs WAS). Yes 2.3x // No 3.1x

NO. The Raptors were only 11 point favorites before the news Kawhi Leonard would not play. I have to believe the line will move at least a point, which means No is a great play considering the odds we’re getting.

Both B. Griffin and A. Drummond (DET) record a double double in Wednesday’s game (vs. BOS) Yes 3.4x //No 2.1x

NO. Blake and Andre have recorded double-doubles in 15 of the 50 games they have played together this season, including one of their three games against the Celtics. They have only done it in three of their 17 games together in 2019.

Any player in Wednesday’s games records a triple double Yes 2x // No 3.5x

NO. With Russell Westbrook , and LeBron James getting the night off, there aren’t too many players who have a realistic chance at a triple-double. Those two have accounted for 28 of the 82 triple-doubles in the NBA this season. Ben Simmons , Giannis Atentekounmpo, Nikola Jokic , James Harden and Luka Doncic all have a legit shot, but as I said, there have been 82 triple-doubles all season long. I would probably take no even if the odds were even.

T. Harris (PHI) outscores J. Butler (PHI) in Wednesday’s game (vs NYK) Yes 2.7x // No 2.3x

NO. In three games together, Butler has outscored Harris twice. Harris has more field goal attempts in all three games, but Butler had at least 10 free throw attempts in the two games he outscored Harris. I 

expect Butler to get the line a lot again Wednesday with Harris spacing the floor.

D. Jordan (NYK) records more rebounds than J. Embiid (PHI) in Wednesday’s game Yes 3.5x // No 2x

NO. In their only head-to-head matchup this season, when DeAndre Jordan was still with Dallas, Joel Embiid had 12 rebounds compared to just eight for Jordan. Jordan is averaging just 26.6 minutes and 11.8 rebounds in five games with the Knicks while Embiid is averaging 13.5 RPG this season and 14.9 RPG in his last nine games.

M. Conley (MEM) outscores Z. Lavine (CHI) in Wednesday’s game. Yes 3.4x // No 2.1x

NO. Memphis ranks sixth in defensive rating while the Bulls rank 24th. That being said, Conley has struggled since Marc Gasol was traded, totaling 25 points on 26.9 percent shooting in his last two games. LaVine, for his part, has scored at least 26 points in each of his last four games.

G. Hayward (BOS) makes 3 or more 3 pointers in Wednesday’s game (vs. DET). Yes 3.1x // No 2.2x

NO. Hayward has made three or more threes in six of his 52 games this season and none of the three games he has played against the Pistons.

Every team scores over 94 points in Wednesday’s games. Yes 3x // No 2x

Yes. Every team on the schedule has an implied point total over 103. The Grizzlies and Bulls may set basketball back 100 years, but that game still has a 209 total. There have been just nine instances in February of a team failing to score over 94 points.

G. Antetokounmpo (MIL) records a triple-double in Wednesday’s game (vs IND) Yes 5x // No 1.5x.

NO. If I said No to the previous triple-double question, I have to say No to this one as well. Giannis has just four triple-doubles in 52 games this season.

L. Williams (LAC) outscores D. Booker (PHX) in Wednesday’s game. Yes 4.5x // No 1.6x

YES. Williams has been remarkably inconsistent in February, even by his own standards. In his last six games he has scored 45, 15, 10, 31, 18 and 39 points. In three games against Phoenix this season, Williams is averaging 16.0 points. Booker is averaging 23.0 points in two games against the Clippers, and he outscored Williams in both head-to-head meetings. Booker has scored at least 19 points in seven consecutive games.

Any team wins by 25 or more points in Wednesday’s games. Yes 3.9x // No 1.8x

NO. The Suns and Knicks are certainly capable of losing by 25, and the Warriors can beat anyone by that amount. That being said, there aren’t any obvious blowouts on the slate.