NFL Target Analysis: Week 12

Between injuries and ineffectiveness, we have seen a lot of quarterback turnover in recent weeks, and it is having an effect on wide receivers. For the most part, backups like Lamar Jackson and Jeff Driskel are severely limiting their receiver’s fantasy value, but there are some situations, like in Washington and Jacksonville, where a quarterback change could lead to some surprise fantasy production. Let’s take a look at some of the target leaders from this week and the entire season, with an eye on some situations that could be changing down the stretch.

Breakdowns

• All of the concern over Emmanuel Sanders heading into Week 12 appears to have been misplaced. Sanders caught seven of 12 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown Sunday. He still hasn’t reached 100 receiving yards in a game since Demaryius Thomas was traded, but he is too good to bench most weeks.
• Tyler Lockett has 16 targets over the last three weeks. Forty players have had more over that span. Of course, Lockett has caught 15 of those targets, and he also has a touchdown in eight games this season. On the season, Lockett has an 87.8 percent catch rate, second to Michael Thomas among receivers with at least 49 targets. I wish he was getting more targets, but he has managed to be pretty consistent for fantasy anyway.
• Doug Baldwin had seven targets Sunday despite entering the game as a game-time decision. His numbers still are not what we are used to, but with 17 targets over his last two games, it looks like things are trending in the right direction.
• Amari Cooper : If Cooper isn't going to be more consistent with the Cowboys, it is nice to know his ceiling is just as high. I don't know that I will ever feel completely comfortable relying on him, but you pretty much have to start him this week.
• I’m pretty sure this is C.J. Uzomah ’s first Target Analysis appearance this season, and I suspect it will be the last. Uzomah was targeted 12 times Sunday and caught six of them for 39 yards. Uzomah and his quarterback are not good enough to overcome two drops in one game. Uzomah has a chance to keep showing up on the target leaderboard, especially if A.J. Green misses more time, but targets from Jeff Driskel are only worth about 30 percent of a real target.
• The only people who want to see Joe Flacco regain his starting job are Michael Crabtree and John Brown owners. Crabtree saved his day with a touchdown in Week 12, while Brown led the Ravens in targets (seven) and receiving yards (25) despite finishing with just one reception. Lamar Jackson is limited as a passer, but his running ability will open up some opportunities in the passing game, especially near the red zone. I wouldn’t start any Baltimore receiver, but I wouldn’t drop them, either.
• Josh Doctson caught six of 10 targets for 66 yards Sunday. Those are both season highs for Doctson, and while that isn’t exactly encouraging for his fantasy value the rest of the way, it is certainly possible Colt McCoy continues to look his way down the stretch.
• D.J. Moore appears to have risen above the WR3 morass, at least until Devin Funchess returns. Moore caught all eight of his targets Sunday after catching seven of eight targets in Week 11. He has just two touchdowns on the season, but I doubt that is the case for much longer.
• Austin Ekeler is likely the latest in a long line of backup running backs who are not nearly as effective when they are asked to carry the load. That being said, Ekeler was targeted 10 times in Week 12, and if he remains a huge part of the passing game, he doesn’t need to be that great. His upside is probably James Conner , who isn’t that great himself, but has caught 49 passes for 453 yards this season.
• Chris Herndon is a reasonable target if you are desperate for tight end help, but it is unlikely to end well. Herndon is just fast enough to outrun a linebacker, but he isn’t big enough to outmuscle cornerbacks. He could be moderately useful catching dump offs, especially if the Jets continue to scheme him open three or four times a game, but his ceiling is extremely limited.