Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics -4.0

Over/Under 208.5

 

  • Lost in Boston’s struggles this season is the fact they have played nine of their 14 games on the road this season. Boston is 5-1 at home.
  • This game is the second of a back-to-back for both teams. While Boston is at home again, they needed overtime to defeat the Raptors
  • Gordon Hayward is still struggling this season, even though he is no longer on a minutes restriction. Hayward has played at least 29 minutes in each of his last three games. Hayward is averaging his fewest points per game since his rookie season, and his field goal percentage is also a career low.
  • If Hayward plays Saturday, it would be his first time playing back-to-back games this season. Hayward had 13 points, one rebound and seven assists in Utah last week. Hayward played a season-high 39 minutes Friday.
  • Donovan Mitchell set an auspicious record Friday night, scoring 31 points on 35 shots without recording a single assist. Mitchell is the first player with 35 field goal attempts and zero assists since Carmelo Anthony scored a career-high 62 points against the Bobcats in 2014.
  • Rudy Gobert was a career-worst -26 Friday.
  • Kyrie Irving missed the first game between these two teams, but he enters this game coming off a 43-point, 11-assist night against Toronto.
  • Boston has taken the second fewest shots at the rim this season, per Cleaning The Glass. Utah is allowing the fifth fewest shots at the rim on defense.

 

Pre-Game Props

?1. The last made shot (FT or FG) of the 1st Quarter is a 3 pointer (We'll leave this open until the 1:00 mark) (4.7x yes/1.5x no).

NO. The Celtics have made threes on 24.3 percent of their made shots, while threes make up just 17.6 percent of Utah’s makes. If this prop was for the Celtics only, I think the payout would be just good enough to say Yes. When you add Utah in, it isn’t even close.

2. D. Mitchell (UTA) outscores K. Irving (BOS) in the 1st Quarter (2.5x yes/2.5x no)

NO. Kyrie Irving is averaging 4.9 points in the first quarter, compared to 3.9 points in the first quarter for Donovan Mitchell. Boston has the best defensive rating in the NBA this season at 101.2, and while Utah’s defense is almost certainly better than the numbers suggest, they rank 21st in defensive rating at 108.7. On top of that, Donovan Mitchell will almost certainly look to pass more after he recorded nary an assist last night.

3. A player from either team records 3 or more assists in the 1st Quarter (2.2x yes/3.1x no) 

NO. Three assists in one quarter is a lot. Only seven players in this game are averaging more than three assists per game, and none is averaging more than Ricky Rubio’s 6.9 assists per game. The only thing that makes me hesitate is that Donovan Mitchell will almost certainly be hunting assists early. Even so, it’s nice when the answer I think is more likely also gets the better payout.

4. Either team makes at least 2 out of their first 3 FG attempts of the 1st Quarter (2.0x yes/3.5x no)

NO. The Celtics are shooting 43.5 percent from the field this season compared to 45.5 percent for Utah. The Celtics are holding opponents to 43.2 percent from the field compared to 47.9 percent for The Jazz. This seems like an automatic Yes, but No is probably likelier than you think, and I like the payout.

5. Either team commits a foul by the 11:15 mark (3.4x yes/2.1x no)

NO. Boston has drawn the sixth fewest fouls per game (20.3) this season, which is almost certainly the result of settling for too many jump shots. Utah, on the other hand, has drawn 25.2 fouls per game, the most in the NBA. On the other hand, Boston is committing just 20.9 fouls per game, compared to 23.0 for Utah. That being said, 45 seconds is nothing, and I think both teams can go at least that long without fouling.

6. UTA wins the opening tip-off 1.8x no/3.8x no)

YES. Al Horford went 1-1 on opening tips against Serge Ibaka last night, but I don’t like his chances against 7’1” Rudy Gobert. Gobert won the opening tip a week ago, as well.