San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns

San Antonio Spurs -6.5

Over/Under 214.5

  • DeMar DeRozan has gotten better every year since 2014, and it appears this year is no different. DeRozan is averaging a career-high 28.3 ppg this season, and perhaps more impressively, he is averaging 8.0 assists per game. His previous career high is 5.2 APG, set last season. Just for good measure, DeRozan’s 6.0 rebounds per game this season are also a career high.

  • The Suns have lost five straight since beating the Mavericks in the season opener.

  • Rookie Elie Okobo will get the start Wednesday coming off his best game of the season. After Isaiah Canaan went down with an injury after just six minutes of play, Okobo had 18 points, five rebounds and seven assists in 31 minutes.

  • While DeRozan has garnered much of the headlines through the first two weeks of the season, Rudy Gay has upped his game as well. Gay has three straight double-doubles and is averaging 14.7 points and 8.5 rebounds per game.

  • Josh Jackson has struggled in two starts with Devin Booker out, scoring a combined 16 points on 7-for-20 shooting with 11 turnovers.

  • T.J. Warren excelled statistically when Booker was out at the end of last year, but his minutes and production have been inconsistent all season. Warren had 18 points and eight rebounds in 22 minutes Sunday but had just three points and three rebounds in 18 minutes the day before that.

  • Bryn Forbes has been remarkably consistent this season, scoring between 11 and 17 points in every game.

  • DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge lead the league in minutes per game on the young season, at 38.9 and 37.2, respectively. Of course, two of San Antonio’s six games this season have gone to overtime, so that has contributed to the heavy workload thus far.

Pre-Game Props

1. The last made shot (FG or FT) of the 1st Quarter is a 2 pointer (We'll leave this open until the 1:00 mark) (1.8x Yes/4x No)

NO. Including free throws, 48.5 percent of Phoenix’s made shots have been twos this season. On the other hand, 52.7 percent of the Spurs’ makes have been twos. I have no idea why No is getting such a good payout.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

2. Which team scores more points in the 1st Quarter? PHX has a +3 handicap. (PHX 2.5/ SAS 2.5)

SAS. If you believe in the game line of Spurs -6.5, then you have to take PHX +3. Spurs -6.5 feels a bit low to me, but I don’t think I would make the line Spurs -12. That being said, the Suns have the worst point differential in the league this season, at -12.2. The Spurs haven’t been great, but they are lightyears ahead at -3.2. The Spurs rank ninth in point differential in the first quarter at +1.7, while Phoenix is still last at -5.0. I just don’t trust Phoenix to keep it close early, especially when both teams’ starters are playing.

3. D. DeRozan (SAS) scores 9 or more points in the 1st Quarter (2.9x Yes/2.1x No)

YES. DeRozan is averaging 28.3 points per game, or 7.1 per quarter. So really it comes down to, can DeRozan score two more points than average against the team allowing the sixth most points to opponents this season? I’ll say Yes, especially since it pays better.

4. PHX wins the opening tip off (2x Yes/3x No).

NO. Both teams have won one opening tip out of six this season. Deandre Ayton has taken every opening tip for the Suns, while LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poetl have split duty for the Spurs. Aldridge is 0-3 this season while Poetl is 1-2. I would like this marginally better if I knew Poetl was taking the tip, but considering all three centers have been terrible, I’ll go with the better payout once again.

5. There is an assist on the first made FG of the game (2.2x Yes/3.3x No).

YES. Want to win a bar bet with your buddy’s? Ask them who leads the NBA in assist rate this season. It’s Phoenix, at 67.4 percent. The Spurs are no longer the ball-moving savants of yesteryear, but they still have a respectable 57.7 percent assist rate. That rate goes down to 54.5 percent when both LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan are on the floor. Even so, Yes is clearly more likely, and the payout is decent enough.

6. Either team has 7 or more points at the 10:30 mark (4.4x Yes/1.7x No).

NO. The Spurs play at the third slowest pace in the league, while Phoenix ranks 18th in pace. I doubt either team gets much more than three possessions in the first 1:30 of the game, which means they would have to score just about every time down the court. That payout is awfully tempting, but I think No is the safer play, especially with Devin Booker out.