New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings

New Orleans Saints -2

Over/Under 54

  • The Saints defense got off to a rough start again this season, but it has progressively gotten better. The Saints rank No. 1 in rushing defense, allowing just 72.3 yards per game.
  • They could have their hands full against Latavius Murray , who has 224 rushing yards and three touchdowns over his last two games.
  • Minnesota’s defense has been better of late as well, but that could be due to facing rookie quarterbacks each of the last two weeks. They could have their hands full with Drew Brees , who has to be considered one of the leading MVP candidates through the first seven weeks of the season.
  • Michael Thomas has 53 receptions on 58 targets this season. He could have a tough matchup against cornerback Xavier Rhodes , but Thomas did have seven receptions for 85 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota in the playoffs last year.
  • One thing to keep an eye on when Minnesota has the ball is if Marshon Lattimore travels with Adam Thielen , especially when Thielen is lined up in the slot. If that is the case, it could open up more opportunities for Stefon Diggs , who has been quiet the last two games.


1. The last non-kneeling, offensive play of the 1st Quarter is a passing play (We'll leave this open until the 2:00 mark(2.2x yes/2.6x no)

YES. No is tempting, considering the odds, and if it looks like New Orleans is going to have the ball to end the quarter, I might even lean that way. The Saints have 222 passing attempts this season and 166 carries. The Vikings are third in the NFL with 300 passing attempts compared to just 152 carries.

2. The first offensive play of the 1st Quarter gains 7 or more yards (2.7x yes/2.1x no)
Seven yards is a lot. The Saints are averaging 3.9 yards per carry, while Minnesota is averaging 4.0. Even in the passing game, Minnesota is averaging just 7.2 yards per attempt, while New Orleans is at 8.5. I just don’t think the odds are good enough to say Yes.
3. A. Kamara (NO) records more catches than S. Diggs (MIN) in the 1st Quarter

(2.6x yes/2.3x no)

NO.Kamara has just five catches over the two games with Mark Ingram back. Stefon Diggs has struggled lately as far as yardage, but he has 11 receptions in the last two weeks. If you take the season as a whole, Diggs is averaging 8.3 receptions per game compared to 6.7 for Kamara. The Vikings made a concerted effort to get Diggs the ball last week, with 14 targets, and he could see increased targets again if Marshon Lattimore shadows Adam Thielen .
4. Both teams combine to score 15 or more points in the 1st Quarter

(4.5x yes/1.5x no)
YES.The biggest problem with saying Yes here is I suspect the overwhelming majority of players will do so too. Then again, if everyone says Yes and the correct answer is No, it doesn’t hurt you too much. The over/under is 54, which comes out to 13.5 points per quarter. Asking to go over 15 is not a lot, and the payout is huge.

5. D. Brees (NO) completes a pass of 15 yards or more on the NO opening drive(2.6x yes/2.2x no)

NO. Brees has completed 41 passes of 15 yards or more in 59 drives. That is fewer that one such play per drive, and I don’t think the payout is enough to go with Yes.

6. L. Murray (MIN) rushes for a 1st down on the MIN opening drive(2.2x yes/2.8x no).

NO. At the very least, I think the payouts should be reversed. The Saints have allowed the fewest rushing yards and the fewest first downs rushing in the NFL this season, and the Vikings have the second fewest first downs rushing in the NFL. I don’t even know what the argument would be for saying Yes.