NFL Target Analysis: Week 5

A couple of weeks ago, I joked about how everyone is a wide receiver three. It took me a little while, but it finally occurred to me that the best way to differentiate between all of those situational starters is by the number of targets. You can play Jordy Nelson if you want to, but it’s going to take a lot to convince me he is a starter over somebody who is averaging an extra 2+ targets per game. I’m not saying I trust Quincy Enunwa or Corey Davis , but if I’m taking a chance anyway, may as well give me a high target share. As always, let’s look at the receivers who had notable target numbers in Week 5 and all season long.

Breakdowns

• Michael Crabtree has eight drops and a 53 percent catch rate this season, which is enough to make Demaryius Thomas look reliable. Crabtree isn’t explosive, and his quarterback isn’t good, but he has some touchdown upside after scoring just once in five games.
• Corey Davis has been as inconsistent as anyone this season, but he is tied for 15^th with 44 targets. Even Sunday, when Davis caught just four passes for 49 yards, he was still targeted six times. Those targets are what keep Davis ahead of other unreliable receivers like Jordy Nelson , Amari Cooper , Sammy Watkins and Doug Baldwin for this week and going forward.
• Davis is tied with Eric Ebron in targets this season. That is where the similarities end. Davis is a good player with a bad quarterback at a deep position. Ebron is a bad player with a good quarterback at a shallow position. Ebron will turn into a pumpkin eventually, and I wonder if you could trade him for someone like David Njoku or Vance McDonald and get a usable RB or WR. I would probably look to make that kind of trade.
• Nyheim Hines is probably going to break if he keeps getting 15 carries a game, but he doesn’t have to if he keeps getting used this way in the passing game. Hines has 21 catches on 24 targets over the last three weeks, the exact same as James White . I would still rather play White most weeks, but Hines is a legit fantasy starter.
• Chester Rogers had eight receptions on 11 targets in each of his last two games, totaling 151 yards and zero touchdowns. Before you rush to start him, just keep in mind Andrew Luck has thrown for 829 yards in his last two games after throwing for 343 combined in the two before that. Rogers looks decidedly average on film, and there is no reason to feel particularly optimistic about his prospects in Week 6.
• I wouldn’t play him over anyone who is good, but I actually feel reasonably confident Amari Cooper ’s on again, off again fantasy production will continue for at least one more week. Every time he is marginalized in this offense, the Raiders make a concerted effort to get him the ball, as evidenced by his 12 targets in Week 2 and 10 in Week 4. I think Cooper is a high risk, high reward play in both seasonal and DFS games this week.
• Robert Woods caught five of his seven targets Sunday for 92 yards and zero touchdowns. It was arguably his worst receiving game since Week 1, but he salvaged it with 53 yards rushing. I think you have to start him no matter what, but I worry he will have a much harder time getting open if Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are out.
• I’m pretty sure we just saw Austin Hooper ’s best game of the season. It is possible another team chooses to leave him wide open in the middle of the field and dare Matt Ryan to dump the ball off constantly, but even if that happens, I hope Ryan has learned his lesson. That being said, Tampa Bay’s defense is godawful, and these days, it doesn’t take much to finish as a top-12 fantasy tight end most weeks. Just don’t view Hooper drastically different than you did a week ago.