NFL Target Analysis: Week 3

I still haven’t settled on a format I like for Target Analysis. Every week will still feature the target leaders for the season, along with a discussion of noteworthy players from that list as well as the previous week’s games. I just haven’t figured out the best way to deliver it to you. So far, I have presented those players largely at random, but now that some patterns have emerged after three weeks of games, I think we can begin to group some of these players into different categories. Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from this week’s Target Analysis is the lack of tight ends or running backs. That wasn’t a conscious decision on my part, and I don’t want to exclusively discuss wide receivers, but there just weren’t any noteworthy running back or tight ends who were targeted heavily in Week 3. Alvin Kamara was the only running back with more than eight targets last week, and I don’t know what I could say about him that is useful to anybody.

Tight Ends were targeted a bit more in Week 3, but again, the target leaders don’t stand out. Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce are really good. Eric Ebron isn’t, but he is still startable when Jack Doyle is out. O.J. Howard is startable too, but I would probably try to sell high.

Everyone is a WR3

This is an exaggeration, obviously, but it certainly feels like it. Week 3 saw several young players see an uptick in targets and in most cases, put them to good use. They all need to be 100 percent owned and are startable, especially during bye weeks, but I’m not ready to trust any of them yet.

• Robert Woods led the Rams in Targets, ADot and end zone targets through two weeks, and he finally turned that workload into fantasy production in Week 3. After catching just 56 percent of his targets in the first two games, Woods caught 10 of 11 targets Sunday for 104 yards and two touchdowns. I would probably still rather own Brandin Cooks , but it is awfully close. Woods is looking like a low-end WR2 going forward.
• Mike Williams garnered a lot of attention with two touchdowns in Week 3, but it is also noteworthy that he had seven targets in this game, tying Keenan Allen for the most on the team. Williams is basically a glorified tight end so far this season in terms of usage, but while everyone rushed to add Calvin Ridley this week, it is worth noting Williams has as many receptions as Ridley on the season, though on one fewer target and with one fewer touchdown.
• It seems like a lifetime ago that I told you to drop Calvin Ridley after he had zero catches on two targets in Week 1. Ridley caught seven of eight targets in Week 3, for 146 yards and three touchdowns. The Falcons are averaging 34.0 points over their last two games, and Ridley’s targets and touchdowns will probably take a hit on the days when Matt Ryan struggles. Then again, if Julio Jones really isn’t going to catch touchdowns again this year, somebody has to.
• Antonio Callaway was tied for sixth with 10 targets in Week 3, though he managed just four receptions for 20 yards.  That being said, he caught three of his five targets from Baker Mayfield . Perhaps more importantly, he got open deep on three separate targets. Two of them were underthrown (one egregiously so) by TyRod Taylor , and the other was a pretty poor drop on the left sideline. Callaway is inferior to Calvin Ridley and Mike Williams in terms of skills and situation, but if those two are owned in your league, Callaway is a fine consolation prize.   
• I drafted John Ross in a few leagues this year in part because I didn’t think Tyler Boyd was good enough to warrant consistent targets across from A.J. Green . It appears I was wrong. Boyd had six catches and a touchdown in each of his last two games, on seven targets last week and nine in Week 2. Boyd still doesn’t look like a particularly good athlete, and I tend to think it will be better for him if A.J. Green is healthy (six of Boyd’s seven targets Sunday came before Green was injured). If opposing teams focus more on Tyler Boyd , I doubt they will have a particularly hard time stopping him. That being said, there is a lot to like on film. Boyd is a very good route runner, and that skill, combined with his size, should make him a solid red zone target. On top of that, he showed a proclivity against Carolina for getting himself open when the pocket breaks down and Andy Dalton has to scramble. Antonio Callaway probably has a higher ceiling week-to-week, but I bet Tyler Boyd is more consistent, especially in PPR formats.
• I recommended last week that you give Jordy Nelson one more week before you drop him, and while you can’t drop him after he caught six of eight targets for 173 yards and a touchdown, I wasn’t exactly impressed with his film. He was wide open for each of his first three receptions, but that had more to do with terrible coverage than anything Nelson did particularly well. On both of Nelson’s long receptions, he was chased down from behind short of the end zone (including his first one, when linebacker Jerome Baker caught him). It was frustrating to see Amari Cooper held to just two receptions on five targets, but Cooper should stay well ahead of Nelson in your Week 4 wide receiver rankings.
• I came away from last week’s film thinking Kenny Golladay looked better than Marvin Jones , but for most of Sunday’s game, I couldn’t tell who was who. Golladay has five more targets and five more receptions than Jones for 79 more yards, but both have two touchdowns. Golladay appears to strike a nice balance between Golden Tate ’s consistency and Marvin Jones ’s upside. Both Golladay and Tate are borderline WR2s.

So buy low (or maybe even pay full price) for a WR1.

• Of the top nine players in targets through three weeks, only Michael Thomas has multiple touchdowns. I’m beginning to run out of excuses for Julio Jones , but I wonder if you couldn’t buy low on some of the others, especially Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham should score eventually even if the Giants’ offense isn’t particularly good. The Browns, on the other hand, should be at least marginally better with Baker Mayfield replacing TyRod Taylor .

Better yet, sell these guys who probably aren’t WR1s, but have played like it so far.

• Will Fuller V led the Texans in targets and receiving yards Sunday, though he ended the day with one fewer reception than DeAndre Hopkins . Fuller has outscored Hopkins in each of the games he has played this season, and he has looked good doing it. Fuller is keeping up his torrid touchdown pace from last season, but even if he hadn’t found the end zone in 2018, he would still be a must-start in Week 4. That being said, I still think he is more of a WR2 going forward.
• Last week I wrote that JuJu Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown would not both continue to top the target leaderboard, and I was wrong, for at least one more week. I still think Smith-Schuster’s targets will fall off eventually, so like Will Fuller , I’m trading Smith-Schuster if I can get WR1 value for him.

Maybe not everyone is a WR3, after all.

• No Patriots receiver had more than five targets Sunday night, and I believe that officially makes Chris Hogan droppable. He will always be a high-upside play during the bye weeks, but he will only have more competition for targets when Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon are active. I think I would still play Hogan over Gordon this week, but they are essentially the same player right now for fantasy.