Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees

New York Yankees -220./

Games Total: 9.5

Game Play Predictions

Texas Rangers

  • J.A. Happ has a 3.11 ERA the first time through the order, a 3.22 ERA the second time through the order, and a 6.43 ERA the third time through the order.

  • The Rangers have mostly struggled against J.A. Happ . Rougned Odor is 0-for-8, Elvis Andrus is 0-for-10, Shin-Soo Choo is 0-for-9 and Adrián Béltre is 3-for-13.

  • Happ allowed two earned runs on five hits with nine strikeouts against Texas back on April 29.

  • The Rangers are 9-3 in their last 12 games. Texas had a season-high 19 hits Wednesday against the Seattle Mariners.

  • Rougned Odor is 10-for-28 with four home runs and four multi-hit games over the last seven days.

  • Joey Gallo has 27 total bases over the last seven days, second only to David Peralta over that span. Gallo also has 11 strikeouts over the last week, behind only Yoan Moncada , Justin Upton and Yolmer Sánchez .

  • Gallo is tied for fourth with 31 home runs this season, and he has a .361 wOBA against lefties.

  • Gallo also has the highest strikeout rate in baseball at 35.3 percent.

  • Elvis Andrus is on a 19-game hitting streak. He is batting .338/.357/.525 since the All-Star break.

  • Shin-Soo Choo is 8-for-51 over the last 15 days, and Texas’ lineup is much scarier if Choo sits.

  • Whoever catches for Texas could have a big day, as Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Robinson Chirinos lead the Rangers with a .375 and .363 wOBA respectively against lefties.

  • Kiner-Falefa is has at least two hits in each of his last four games and six of his last seven. He is batting .429/.442/.667 since the All-Star break.

  • Nomar Mazara leads the Rangers with a .272 batting average, to go along with a .332 OBP and .450 slugging.

  • The Yankees have the lowest bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.10. They have the highest K/9 at 11.54.

 

New York Yankees

  • The Yankees have the eighth highest strikeout rate in baseball at 23.0 percent, and their 9.7 percent walk rate is the fourth highest.

  • Both may be few and far between against Ariel Jurado , who has a  10.9 percent strikeout rate and 7.8 percent walk rate in three big league starts after posting a 13.9 percent strikeout rate and 4.1 percent walk rate in 101.2 innings at Double-A this season.

  • Jurado has largely managed to avoid home runs, as his 1.06 HR/9 at Double-A this season is his highest at any professional level.

  • Jurado has a 50.0 percent ground ball rate in three big league starts. That is the lowest ground ball rate of his professional career.

  • The Yankees, of course, lead all of baseball with 181 home runs. Even with Aaron Judge and Gary Sánchez on the disabled list, they still have Giancarlo Stanton leading the way with 27 home runs.

  • Stanton is the only Yankee who is hitting particularly well of late, with home runs in each of his last two games and multiple hits in four of his last seven. Stanton has 18 RBI in his last 18 games.

  • Stanton’s 29.7 percent strikeout rate this season ranks fifth among qualified batters.

  • Didi Gregorius cooled off after a hot start, but he still sports a .923 OPS at home, including a 10.1 percent walk rate and 11.9 percent strikeout rate. Gregorius is batting .289/.357/.516 over his last 19 starts.

  • Aaron Hicks has a 14.5 percent walk rate this season, good for 11th among qualified batters.

  • The Rangers’ bullpen has a 4.19 ERA, 8.12 K/9 and 3.08 BB/9.

  • Miguel Andujar is batting .289/.324/.494 on the season.


 

Pre-Game Props

  1. Either team scores in the 1st Inning.

YES. The high game total indicates there will be runs scored, and I think there is an excellent chance the Yankees get to Ariel Jurado right away.

  1. Which team records more plate appearances in the 1st inning?

Unless you really believe in Ariel Jurado , this seems like an easy pick. The Rangers have been pretty good against lefties, with a .331 OBP, but I simply don’t trust Jurado. He had a 5.13 K/9 in 16 starts at Double-A this season, and he has 4.02 K/9 in three big league starts. He tries to compensate by throwing strikes and getting ground balls, but that will only get you so far. NYY

  1. Both teams combine for at least 1 strikeout, 1 ground out, and 1 fly/line out in the 1st inning.

Ariel Jurado is a groundball pitcher and J.A. Happ is largely a flyball pitcher, so we probably have those eventualities covered. As we covered above, Ariel Jurado has a miniscule strikeout rate, but J.A. Happ is striking out more than a batter per inning this season and the Rangers have a 22.8 percent strikeout rate against lefties. The payout for No is awfully tempting, but I have to say YES.

  1. J.A. Happ throws 15 or fewer pitches in the 1st.

No. Happ has thrown 17.4 pitches per inning this season. The Rangers, for their part, have seen 3.99 pitches per plate appearance this season. Considering how well the Rangers have hit against lefties, I think he likely goes over in the first inning.

  1. A TEX batter sees 7 or more pitches in the 1st inning.

I don’t think you can say Yes for this one if you said Yes for the previous question. That being said, just because I said No for the last one doesn’t mean I have to say Yes to this. J.A. Happ could easily throw 16+ pitches and never come close to throwing seven to any one batter. Happ has averaged 4.19 pitches per plate appearance this season, and the Rangers do have a healthy 9.1 percent walk rate against lefties. I think this is close, so I’m going YES since it pays better.

  1. A TEX batter hits an extra base hit in the 1st Inning.

YES has the best payout of the pregame props, NO has the worst. Happ has allowed 35 extra base hits in 120 innings this season, and as we have stated repeatedly, the Rangers can hit lefties. That being said, the top of Texas’s lineup is not scary for lefties, especially if Shin-Soo Choo leads off instead of Jurickson Profar . NO.