New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees -147

Games Total: 9.5

Game Play Predictions

New York Yankees

  • The Yankees begin an 11-game road trip Friday in Toronto, and they will be without injured rookie Gleyber Torres.
  • Blue Jays righty Sam Gaviglio has faced the Yankees once in his career, tossing seven scoreless innings against them on June 6.
  • That is one of just two starts in his last seven that Gaviglio has managed to keep the ball in the yard.
  • On the season, Gaviglio has allowed 1.51 HR/9 this season and 1.77 HR/9 in his career. He has a 8.5 K/9 and 2.64 BB/9 in 47.2 innings this season.
  • It is remarkable Gaviglio’s walk rate is so low considering he has barely thrown more pitches in the strike zone (37.9 percent) than Tyler Chatwood (37.4 percent). Gaviglio has gotten away with it because opponents have swung at 32.0 percent of his pitches outside the strike zone.
  • When Gaviglio does throw strikes, they generally get hit. Opponents have a 92.8 percent contact rate on pitches in the zone. Among pitchers with at least 40 innings, only Brian Johnson , Bartolo Colón and T.J. McFarland have a higher contact rate on pitches in the strike zone.
  • The Yankees lead the league in home runs with 144. The Red Sox are next with 124.
  • The Yankees have the second highest walk rate in baseball at 9.9 percent. They have the ninth highest strikeout rate at 23.3 percent.
  • New York is just 10th in batting average but they rank fifth in OBP and first in slugging.
  • The Yankees have been hot lately as well, ranking third in the league in wOBA over the last seven days.
  • Aaron Judge has led the way of late, going 7-for-16 with three home runs during his four-game hitting streak. Miguel Andujar is 7-for-19 with a home run over the last seven days, while Aaron Hicks is 7-for-21 with five walks and three strikeouts over the last week.
  • Aaron Judge is seventh in baseball with a 16.2 percent walk rate. Judge is sixth in strikeout rate at 30.7 percent, just behind his teammate Giancarlo Stanton at 31.3 percent.

Toronto Blue Jays

  • The Blue Jays will face right-handed Sonny Gray .
  • Gray is 2-3 with a 1.88 ERA in seven career starts at Rogers center. He is 0-0 with a 3.52 ERA in three starts against Toronto this season.
  • On the season, Gray has a 5.44 ERA, 4.40 FIP and 4.32 xFIP. His 3.92 BB/9 is the highest of his career, as is his .321 BABIP allowed.
  • It is little surprise Gray’s walk rate has ballooned, as he has thrown just 41.9 percent of pitches in the strike zone this season after throwing 41.6 percent in the zone in 2017. Prior to 2017, his lowest percentage was 45.0 percent in 2014.
  • Last season, Gray could get away with throwing fewer strikes due to his career-high 11.9 swinging strike percentage. In 2018, he is down to 10.0 percent.
  • Opponents have made contact on 89.3 percent of Gray’s pitches in the strike zone, 19th highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings. They are swinging at just 29.6 percent of his pitches outside the strike zone.
  • Toronto has struggled a bit of late, ranking 23rd with a .292 wOBA over the last seven days.
  • Most of the current Blue Jays have struggled against Sonny Gray as well. Justin Smoak is 6-for-32 with seven total bases and 13 strikeouts against Gray. Kendrys Morales is 4-for-25 with five total bases. Kevin Pillar is 6-for-23 with six total bases while Russell Martin is 4-for-16 with six total bases.
  • Toronto ranks 12th with an 8.9 percent walk rate. Their 22.8 percent strikeout rate ranks 14th in MLB.
  • Kevin Pillar is tied for the ninth most doubles in MLB with 25.
  • Justin Smoak is eighth in MLB with a 15.5 percent walk rate.