Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers -113
Games Total: 8.5
Game Play Predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers will face Tyler Chatwood Monday, and they would do well to be patient against the right-hander. Tyler Chatwood has allowed 58 walks and 58 strikeouts this season. His 8.24 BB/9 is the worst in baseball among pitchers with at least 60 innings. Carlos Martínez is next at 5.74 BB/9. Only Lucas Giolito has a worse K/BB rate than Chatwood, and nobody can match Chatwood’s 1.75 WHIP.
Chatwood’s 4.12 ERA and 4.74 FIP are surprisingly not terrible considering his walk issues, and they are mainly due to Chatwood’s having allowed just three home runs in 63.1 innings.
Part of that is by design. Chatwood has a 56.5 percent groundball rate, second in MLB only to Clayton Richard .
Chatwood has thrown 37.7 percent of pitches in the strike zone this season, the seventh worst in MLB. Only Giolito and Michael Wacha have been worse than Chatwood’s 52.4 first pitch strike percentage.
Chatwood has thrown 18.8 pitches inning this season, most among pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched. His 4.09 pitches per plate appearance are 10th most in MLB.
This could be one of the worst possible matchups for Chatwood, as the Dodgers are fourth in MLB with a 9.6 percent walk rate and sixth with 334 runs scored.
Sunday’s game against the Giants was the Dodgers’ first in their past 13 games without at least one home run. Only the Diamondbacks and Astros have scored more runs than the Dodgers in June, and only the Astros have a higher wOBA for the month.
Cody Bellinger is fifth among qualified batters at 4.37 pitches per plate appearance.
Joc Pederson is 5-for-11 with four walks and a home run against Tyler Chatwood .
Yasmani Grandal is 6-for-11 with a homer against Chatwood.
Max Muncy appears to have come back down to Earth, going 0-for-7 over his last two games following an eight-game hitting streak. Muncy leads the Dodgers with 13 home runs.
Matt Kemp leads the Dodgers with a .338 batting average and 43 RBI.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs will face Dodgers right-hander Kenta Maeda Monday. Maeda will be making just his second start since returning from a hip injury. He allowed two runs on five hits in five innings while throwing 76 pitches June 13 against the Rangers. Monday marks Maeda’s first career start against the Cubs.
On the season, Maeda is 4-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 69 strikeouts against 21 walks in 57.1 innings.
Maeda has not been quite so efficient this season, averaging 3.92 pitches per plate appearance and 16.8 pitches per inning this season.
Maeda is allowing a career-low 0.78 HR/9 this season, but that may not continue unless he raises his career-low 37.7 percent groundball rate.
Maeda has thrown 46.1 percent of pitches in the zone this season and he has a 65.5 first pitch strike percentage.
The Cubs have grounded into just 40 double plays this season. Only the Yankees have fewer.
The Cubs rank third in MLB with a 9.8 percent walk rate, and their 21.2 percent strikeout rate ranks 21st. They are second in the National League with 337 runs scored.
The Cubs rank fourth in MLB with a .327 wOBA.
The Cubs have not been nearly so good lately, as they rank 25th with a .280 wOBA over the last 14 days.
Javier Báez leads the Cubs with 14 home runs and 46 RBI despite recording his last RBI on June 6 and his last homer on June 2. Baez is batting .175/.244/.275 in June.
Albert Almora Jr. and Javier Báez are fifth and seventh in fewest pitches per plate appearance at 3.37 and 3.43, respectively.
Almora is arguably Chicago’s hottest hitter, going 8-for-20 over the last seven days with three multi-hit games over that span.
Jason Heyward has cooled after he started June off on fire. Heyward is 1-for-14 over his last four games.
Kris Bryant broke the longest homerless streak of his career on Friday, hitting his first home run since May 14. Even so, he is hitting a solid .281/.389/.483 on the season.