Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

New York Yankees -159

Games Total: 8.5

Game Play Predictions

Tampa Bay Rays

  • The Rays will face righty Domingo Germán , who is coming off one of his best outings of the season. German allowed three earned runs on five hits including nine strikeouts and zero walks in 6.0 innings against the Mets Saturday.
  • German has an impressive 10.08 K/9, but he has been hurt by walks (3.61 BB/9) and home runs (1.52 HR/9).
  • Some of those home runs may be the product of bad luck, but it could also be the result of being a fly-ball pitcher (37.5 percent groundball rate).
  • Home runs may be less of a problem for German in this game, as the Rays are 25th in MLB with 63 home runs.
  • Tampa Bay is 22nd in walk rate and 17th in strikeout rate this season.
  • C.J. Cron leads the Rays with 16 homers, but he is just 2-for-16 over the last seven days. Carlos Gómez (2-for-22 over the last week) and Rob Refsnyder (1-for-14) have struggled of late as well.
  • On the other side of the coin, Mallex Smith is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, going 13-for-23 during his current seven-game hitting streak.
  • Rookie Jake Bauers is almost aas hot of late. After going 0-for-8 in his first two MLB games, Bauers is 8-for-18 with a home run during his current five-game hitting streak.
  • For as well as Smith, Bauers and Matt Duffy (10-for-29 over the last seven days) are hitting right now, the Rays still have a paltry .279 wOBA in June.
  • On the season, Tampa Bay ranks 12th with a .315 wOBA.

New York Yankees

  • The Yankees will face left-handed Blake Snell , whose 2.30 ERA ranks ninth among qualified starting pitchers. Snell has a 9.73 K/9 and 3.56 K/BB rate this season, but he has been getting a bit lucky as well. His .234 BABIP allowed and 85.0 LOB% will almost certainly regress.
  • Snell is a fly-ball pitcher, as indicated by his 39.4 groundball percentage.
  • That could be a problem against a Yankee team that leads the major leagues in home runs with 107 in 63 games.
  • Snell has faced the Yankees once this season, allowing five earned runs on four hits and three walks with five strikeouts in 3.1 innings on April 4.
  • The Yankees are second in MLB with a 10.0% walk rate. They are third in OBP (.331) and first in slugging (.463).
  • The Yankees rank third with a .801 OPS against lefties. Their 10.9 percent walk rate against lefties is the best in MLB.
  • The Yankees also have the third highest OPS at home (.805), where their walk rate is an impressive 12.0 percent.
  • Aaron Judge has been especially good at Yankee Stadium. His .499 wOBA at home is second to only Trevor Story this season. Judge has a 22.4 percent walk rate and a 26.3 percent strikeout rate at home.
  • Gleyber Torres hit his 12th home run of the season Wednesday, surpassing Alfonso Soriano for the Yankee record for most home runs out of the ninth spot in a season. Torres is batting .296 on the season and he is 5-for-16 over the last week.
  • Gary Sánchez is expected to return to the lineup after he sat out Tuesday and Wednesday. Sanchez is 0-for-11 over his last three games and 2-for-29 with 10 strikeouts in June.