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I am extremely happy we get one last shot at basketball for our DraftEasy Optimal Lineups. Assuming DraftEasy doesn’t add WNBA contests anytime soon, this could be our last NBA contest until October. This NBA Finals series is presumably over, and the only real question is if the Cavaliers can force the series back to Golden State for Game 5 like they did a year ago. I’m skeptical to say the least.
I expect the Warriors to win, and if they have another huge third quarter as has been their habit in these playoffs, the fourth quarter could be almost entirely garbage time. I don’t want to count on the game playing out that way, but it could inform some of my over/under picks.
GSW @ CLE, PICK 3/3
LeBron James 9.5 AST: UNDER
LeBron has gone over 9.5 assists in each of the last two games, even when they got blown out on the road in Game 2. LeBron’s teammates have played better at home all postseason, and in the end, this may come down to whether or not his teammates make shots. The reason I’m going UNDER is I don’t think this game is particularly competitive, and as we have seen in past playoff series, when LeBron gives up on his team, the results can be ugly.
Kevin Durant 29.5 PTS: UNDER
Again, I’m not sure the Warriors will need Durant to score 30 points. He has gone over just once in this series, in Game 3, when Steph Curry and Klay Thompson were struggling. I think Curry is going to have another big game and win Finals MVP, so Durant can just have a ho-hum 26 points again.
J.R. Smith 2.5 3PM: OVER
J.R. was 3-10 on threes in Game 3, the only game he went over in this series. He is averaging 2.0 3PM in the postseason, but he has gone over in six out of 10 home games in these playoffs. If LeBron does take it easy in the second half, someone’s going to have to shoot, and J.R. has never been shy.
GSW @ CLE, PICK 3/4
Kevin Love 9.5 REB: OVER
Love has quietly put up at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in every game in this series. Cleveland can’t afford to take him off the court, and the Warriors don’t really have anyone to keep him off the glass.
Stephen Curry 1.5 STL+BS: UNDER
Curry has had exactly one steal and zero blocks in every game in this series. It is hard to picture him getting many steals or blocks so long as he is spending most of the game guarding LeBron James one-on-one.
George Hill 3.5 AST: OVER
Hill had four assists in Game 3 after he had four total in the first two games. The Cavs should probably let Hill handle the ball a bit more in Game 4, and he may not have a choice if LeBron decides to stand on the wing and whip passes at his teammates, as he has done in elimination games in the past.
Klay Thompson 3.5 3PM: UNDER
If I knew Klay Thompson was 100 percent healthy, this would be an easy over. For as well as he played in Game 2, he only made three threes. I’m not sure the Warriors will need Klay to take a bunch of threes, which could be a good thing if his ankle is still hurting.
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