With the NBA playoffs on a hiatus until Sunday, we turn to MLB for our weekly DraftEasy picks. Today features Andrew McCutchen ’s return to Pittsburgh, where he spent his entire career prior to this season. McCutchen will almost certainly receive a standing ovation in his first at-bat, but beyond that, I would caution reading too much into it.

I understand the impulse to say to yourself, “self, I think McCutchen will be extra motivated/focused against his former team.” I usually think trying to get in the head of an athlete is a fool’s errand. Even if we are right about a player’s motivation, that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be able to hit a curve ball. That being said, as you will see below, I’m okay using motivation as a tie-breaker. Sometimes the decisions on these over/unders are so close that you need something to help tip the scales.

SF @ PIT

Jameson Taillon 4.5 K: OVER

Giants hitters have a 25.2 percent K-rate this season. Only three teams have been worse. Taillon is down to 7.36 K/9 this season after recording 8.42 K/9 in 2017. He has topped 4.5 K in just three starts this season and one of his last five. I think Taillon will bounce back after a few rough outings, but this is mostly about the Giants striking out a ton, especially against righties.

Andrew Suarez 1.5 ER: OVER

Suarez has quietly been very good in his first big league season, with 18 strikeouts against two walks in 17.2 innings across three starts. Suarez has allowed three home runs this season, but that hasn’t been a problem in a minors. He allowed 10 home runs in 155.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season.  As good as Suarez has been, he has gone over 1.5 ER in two of his three big league starts, and he faces a Pittsburgh team that has a .797 OPS against lefties this season. Only Atlanta has been better.

Andrew McCutchen 0.5 R+RBI: OVER

McCutchen has 21 runs and 14 RBI on the season, but he hasn’t recorded either since Sunday. McCutchen got a day off Thursday before his return to Pittsburgh Friday. McCutchen has recorded at least one run or RBI in 18 out of 36 games this season, which explains why the line is 0.5 R+RBI. The day off, his return to Pittsburgh and Jameson Taillon ’s 4.42 ERA all have me leaning over.

MIN @ LAA

Lance Lynn 4.5 HA: OVER

Lynn has allowed 35 hits in 29.2 innings this season. If he allows hits at the same rate in this game, he needs to throw 4.1 innings to go over 4.5 HA. Lynn has topped 4.1 innings in four of his last five games, and he has topped 4.5 hits in four of his last five as well. The Angels are third in MLB in batting average, which doesn’t bode well for Lynn, either.

Tyler Skaggs 1.5 BB: UNDER

I have always thought of Tyler Skaggs as someone who walks way too many batters, but that is probably unfair. He has allowed 3.05 BB/9 in his career, and that number is down to 2.61 this season. The biggest difference for him in 2018 is his 0.47 HR/9, but I digress. Skaggs has walked two or more batters in three of his seven starts this season, but just one of his last four. The Twins are 11th in MLB in walk rate at 9.4 percent, but they are missing Jason Castro and Miguel Sano . Skaggs has gone longer than 5.1 innings just once in his last six starts, which makes the over even less likely.

Joe Mauer 0.5 H: OVER

Mauer is batting .279 on the season. While he has gone hitless in eight games this season, two of those have come within his last three games. Even so, Mauer has a hit in 23 out of 31 games this season, and I like those odds. Opponents are batting .230 against Tyler Skaggs , but they are batting .249 against the Angels’ bullpen.