Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics -4.5 Total: 195.5

This series returns to Boston with the home team having won all six games. The first four games of the series all went over, but Games 5 and 6 both went under. The line for Game 5 Tuesday was 204.0. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 31 points and 14 rebounds to lead Milwaukee in their Game 6 win and force Game 7. He rebounded nicely after he attempted just 10 shots in Game 5.

Now Boston needs Jaylen Brown to rebound after scoring 14 points in each of his last two games. Marcus Morris, Al Horford and Terry Rozier have all played much better at home in this series, and Boston will likely win the series if that trend continues.

 

Game Play Predictions

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Only the Pelicans have a higher Effective Field Goal Percentage in the playoffs than Milwaukee. The Bucks ranked eighth in Effective Field Goal Percentage in the regular season.
  • Only the Cavaliers and Pacers have played at a slower pace than the Celtics and Bucks in the first round of the playoffs.
  • Giannis Antetokoumpo is leading the Bucks in points, rebounds, assists and steals. He has averaged 25.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists in Milwaukee’s three wins and 27.0 points, 10.7 rebounds and 8.0 assists in Milwaukee’s three losses.
  • Khris Middleton scored 16 points Thursday on 7-8 shooting after he scored at least 23 points in each of the first five games in this series. Middleton is shooting .596 from the field and .625 on threes in the postseason.
  • After racking up five blocks in both Games 3 and 4, Thon Maker had just one block total in Games 5 and 6.
  • Eric Bledsoe is averaging 12.0 points per game in the playoffs, shooting 38.9 percent from the field and 30.0 percent on threes. He averaged 17.7 ppg in the regular season on 47.3 percent shooting and 34.7 percent on threes. Bledsoe has shot 33.3 percent or worse in each of the last three games.
  • Malcolm Brogdon picked a good time to have his best game of the series, scoring 16 points on 5-7 shooting with six rebounds, two assists and zero turnovers in Game 6.

Players to Watch

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Giannis put the team on his back at home in Game 6, and he probably needs to do the same in Game 7 if Milwaukee is to finally win a game on the road.

Khris Middleton: Middleton has been remarkably consistent in this series, especially considering how inconsistent his teammates have been. Even though his streak of 20+ point games ended in Game 6, he is still shooting 59.6 percent from the field in this series.

Eric Bledsoe: Bledsoe has shot better than 38.5 percent from the field in one game in this series, and Milwaukee won that game by 24 points. Boston fans should be worried Bledsoe rediscovers his shot for Game 7.

Thon Maker: Maker was great protecting the rim in Games 3 and 4, but has been a non-factor since.

 

Boston Celtics

  • The Celtics have won the opening tip in every game in this series.
  • The Celtics rank 11th in defensive rating in the playoffs. Boston had the best defensive rating in the NBA during the regular season.
  • The Celtics lead the playoffs with an 84.8 percent defensive rebounding rate. They are fourth in offensive rebounding rate at 24.0 percent.
  • The Celtics finished 10th this season in three-point attempts as a team and second in three-point percentage at 37.7-percent.  
  • Al Horford leads the Celtics in field goal percentage, shooting  54.0 percent on 10.5 field goal attempts per game.
  • The Celtics have three players averaging at least one steal per game. Jayson Tatum leads the way with 1.7 steals per game.
  • Marcus Morris is averaging 16.3 points and 6.7 rebounds per game on 43.9 percent shooting at home in this series. He has averaged 11.3 points and 3.3 rebounds on 30.6 percent shooting in the three road games.
  • Marcus Smart has averaged 25.5 minutes per game since returning from a right thumb injury in Game 5. He is 4-16 in this series, but he is averaging 7.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 blocks in his two games.

Players to Watch

Jaylen Brown: Brown has stepped up as Boston’s leading scorer with Kyrie Irving out, but he has scored just 14 points in each of the last two games. He probably needs to score 20+ for Boston to take down Game 7.

Jayson Tatum: Tatum has scored 19 points or more in three of his six playoff games, including 22 in Game 6. He has failed to reach 10 points in two of his other three games.

Terry Rozier: Rozier has scored at least 16 points in all three home games, but he is shooting 30.4 percent over his last four games. If he shoots like he did in Games 1 and 2, it is hard to see Boston losing.

Al Horford: Horford has been Boston’s most consistent player by far, and he stepped up with 22 points and 14 rebounds in Game 5. Horford is averaging 20.7 points per game at home in his series compared to just 13.0 on the road.

Marcus Morris: Morris has been great at home all series. Can he do it one more time?

Marcus Smart: Smart has a knack for showing up in big games, and he can’t shoot any worse than he did in Games 5 and 6. Can he make enough big plays down the stretch to carry his team to the next round?