Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics -3.5 Total: 204.0
This series returns to Boston with the home team having won all four games. All four games in this series have gone over, but the total remains low, probably because both teams are offensively challenged. The Bucks got great play at home from Jabari Parker and Thon Maker after they scored two points combined in the first two games of the series. Similarly, the Celtics rode strong performances from Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris to two home wins, but they went a combined 11-41 from the field in the two road losses. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum combined to score 55 points in the Game 4 loss, and Boston will have to get offense from elsewhere if one or both of them have a cold shooting night.
Game Play Predictions
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks had a 44.4 percent rebounding rate with Thon Maker on the floor during the regular season, and it is up to 45.8 percent in these playoffs. For context, the Mavericks had the lowest rebound percentage in the NBA during the regular season at 47.4 percent.
Milwaukee has the highest Effective Field Goal Percentage in the playoffs at 60.7 percent. They ranked eighth in Effective Field Goal Percentage in the regular season.
Only the Cavaliers and Pacers have played at a slower pace than the Celtics and Bucks in the first round of the playoffs.
The Bucks had a 95.3 defensive rating with Jabari Parker on the floor in Games 3 and 4. In the regular season, they had a 109.5 defensive rating with Parker on the court.
Giannis Antetokoumpo is leading the Bucks in points, rebounds, assists, steals and turnovers this series. He averaged 23.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists in Milwaukee’s two wins and 32.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 7.5 assists in Milwaukee’s two losses.
Khris Middleton has quietly scored at least 23 points in every game in this series. He and Giannis have been the only consistent players for the Bucks in this series.
Middleton is shooting 62.5 percent on threes in the postseason.
Thon Maker has 10 blocks in 56 minutes this series. Anthony Davis leads the NBA with 11 blocks in these playoffs, and he has played 100 more minutes than Maker.
Eric Bledsoe is averaging 11.8 points per game in the playoffs, shooting 42.6 percent from the field and 27.3 percent on threes. He averaged 17.7 ppg in the regular season on 47.3 percent shooting and 34.7 percent on threes.
Players to Watch
Giannis has done it all for the Bucks all season, and these playoffs have been no different. If his teammates struggle on the road again, look for Giannis to take on even more of the scoring and playmaking burden. | |
Middleton has been remarkably consistent in this series, especially considering how inconsistent his teammates have been. That being said, his streak of 20+ point games seems likely to come to an end considering he is shooting 61.5 percent from the field this series. | |
Like Parker and Maker, Bledsoe played better at home in Game 3, but unlike his teammates, that did not carry over into Game 4. Bledsoe will almost certainly have at least one more strong game this series, but it might not be until Game 6. | |
Parker has always been able to score, but in the two home games he combined scoring with stellar defense. He probably won’t shoot 50 percent from the field for a third consecutive game, but if he continues to defend, Milwaukee will be awfully tough to beat. | |
Much like he did against the Raptors last year, Thon Maker has protected the paint on defense and stretched the floor on offense. Boston has not punished the Bucks for Maker’s lack of rebounding, but if that changes, Milwaukee may have to go back to John Henson at center. |
Boston Celtics
Only the Portland Trail Blazers have a lower defensive rating in the playoffs than the Boston Celtics. Boston had the best defensive rating in the NBA during the regular season.
The Celtics lead the playoffs with an 84.9 percent defensive rebounding rate. They are second in offensive rebounding rate at 28.6 percent.
The Celtics finished 10th this season in three-point attempts as a team and second in three-point percentage at 37.7-percent.
Only the Rockets and Spurs have committed fewer turnovers than the Celtics this postseason.
Al Horford leads the Celtics in field goal percentage, shooting 57.5 percent on 10 field goal attempts per game.
The Celtics have four players averaging at least one steal per game. Jayson Tatum leads the way with 2.3 steals per game.
Greg Monroe and Marcus Morris lead the Celtics in usage rate, which is fine so long as they are playing with bench lineups and not the starters.
Marcus Morris shot 45.2 percent in the first two games of this series after shooting 42.9 percent in the regular season. If he returns to form in Game 5, Boston should have an excellent chance to win.
Players to Watch
Brown has stepped up as Boston’s leading scorer with Kyrie Irving out, but he is going to need more help from his teammates to get the win in Game 5. | |
Several Boston possessions per game have devolved into Jayson Tatum isos, and he has come through remarkably often for a rookie. Boston needs his athleticism and playmaking in this series, as well as his defense. | |
So far in this series, the Celtics have won when Rozier has outplayed Eric Bledsoe and lost when he has not. Perhaps even more important than his scoring, Rozier needs to take care of the basketball. | |
Horford does a little bit of everything for Boston, but he probably needs to do more in Game 5. If he can draw Thon Maker away from the basket and/or punish him on the glass, it could change this series. | |
He is going to get most of the shots when the starters rest, and he needs to shoot better after shooting 6-22 in Milwaukee. |