The NBA regular season only ended two days ago, but I already miss it. I really enjoyed DraftEasy’s NBA Over/Under game, and it is a shame we going got a couple of weeks with it before the season ended. October cannot come soon enough. Until then, we turn our attention to baseball, and its Over/Under game. This week, we will pick MLB over/unders for two games, including the only nationally televised game of the day. I may change my mind going forward, but for right now, I think I will lean towards slates that offer at least one pitching over/under as opposed to slates with only hitters. I will obviously track my results going forward to see if I need to change my strategy, but I feel more confident in my ability to pick pitchers, so I will look to play to my perceived strengths.
Oakland at Seattle
Dee Gordon 1.5 hits UNDER
Gordon has begun the season on a 10-game hitting streak, but he has just three multi-hit games over that streak. For his part, Andrew Triggs has allowed eight hits in 10.2 innings this season. Triggs is a groundball pitcher, and there is some risk Gordon legs out on infield single to ruin this call, but this is the higher percentage play.
Matt Olson 2.5 total bases UNDER
Olson has just two extra base hits this season, and they were both home runs. He has topped 2.5 total bases in just three of his 13 games this season. Like Andrew Triggs , Mike Leake is a groundball pitcher, and he hasn’t allowed a HR/9 above 1.03 since 2012.
Khris Davis 1.5 runs + RBI OVER
Khris Davis has scored just two runs in April, and they both came in his last game. In fact, Davis only has two games this season with more two or more runs plus RBI, and the other came on Opening Day. This would be another easy under, but if Davis hits a home run, he instantly goes over. He probably won’t hit a home run against Mike Leake , but he could easily take the bullpen deep, and there are plenty of other ways he goes over as well.
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Jacob Faria 2.5 earned runs OVER
Faria has a 14.29 ERA this season, but both of his starts came against the Red Sox. Even then, he allowed just one earned run in 4.0 innings his first time out. I believed in Faria in the preseason, and I don’t want to give up on him yet, but Philadelphia has a really solid lineup even with J.P. Crawford and Aaron Altherr struggling. Faria could pitch well and still go over, which is what I am rooting for.
Vince Velásquez 2.5 walks OVER
Velasquez has gone under 2.5 walks in both of his starts in 2018, so slow down before you think “he walks everybody, this is an easy over.” Velasquez has 3.47 BB/9 in his career, but he averaged fewer than five innings per start last season. He walked three or more batters in seven of his 15 starts in 2017. The Rays are eighth in MLB with a 10.7 percent walk rate this season, and it would be surprising to say the least if Velasquez were to go under 2.5 walks for a third consecutive game.
César Hernández 1.5 hits OVER
Hernandez has gone nine consecutive games without a multi-hit game, even though he is currently on an eight-game hitting streak. It helps that Hernandez will lead off, and with this game being played in the American league, there is a better chance of the lineup turning over, which means Hernandez could get an extra at-bat to try to pick up his second hit.