In 2019, Seattle’s WNBA title defense was marred by the absence of league MVP Breanna Stewart. They limped to the playoffs and won their first-round game but where never really a threat to repeat as champions. In 2020, Breanna Stewart returned, Seattle tied for the league’s best record and swept the Las Vegas Aces to win the WNBA title.

In 2020, Washington’s WNBA title defense was marred by the absence of league MVP Elena Delle Donne. They limped to the playoffs and lost their first first-round game on a Shey Peddy buzzer-beater. In 2021, Elena Delle Donne returns and Washington is one of the top three favorites to win the WNBA title, according to oddsmakers. Will history repeat itself?

2020 Results

9-13 Record, eighth in the league. Lost to Phoenix in the first round of the playoffs on Shey Peddy’s buzzer-beater

Offseason Moves

  • Signed free agent Alysha Clark

  • Traded a 2022 second-round pick to Los Angeles for Sydney Wiese.

  • LaToya Sanders retired from the WNBA.

  • Re-signed Tina Charles.

  • Traded a 2022 third-round pick to Minnesota for Erical McCall.

  • Signed Ariel Atkins to a contract extension.

  • Signed free agent Theresa Plaisance.

  • Temporarily suspended the contract of Myisha Hines-Allen.

  • Signed free-agent Shavonte Zellous.

Draft Results

Washington did not have a single pick in the 2021 WNBA draft, and they have already traded their second and third-round picks in 2022.

Offseason Breakdown

Washington tried to address its depth issues by signing Alysha Clark, but Clark will miss the entire 2021 WNBA season to address a Lisfranc injury in her right foot. Combined with the departures of Tianna Hawkins and Emma Meesseman, Latoya Sanders’s retirement and Myisha Hines-Allen joining the team late, and this roster is suddenly awfully thin behind Elena Delle Donne and Tina Charles. Erica McCall is solid and Theresa Plaisance will space the floor, but there is now very little margin for error with 32-year-old Tina Charles and Delle Donne.

Washington did manage to address its backcourt depth by adding Sydney Wiese. She gives this team another spot up shooter who can handle the ball some, while Shavonte Zellous provides energy and athleticism off the bench.

Projected Starting 5: 

PG Leilani Mitchell

SG Natasha Cloud

SF Ariel Atkins

PF Elena Delle Donne

C Tina Charles

The Mystics basically have six players for five starting spots once Myisha Hines-Allen is cleared to play. With Hines-Allen out, this team pretty much has to go with a three-guard lineup, and considering they have more guard depth, I think they will stick with it even when Hines-Allen returns. It will be far more interesting to see who plays at the end of close games. Does head coach Mike Thibault mix up his closers based on his opponent? Does he go offense/defense with Leilani Mitchell and Hines-Allen? That is probably what I would do.

2021 Outlook

Washington’s biggest strengths since they traded for Elena Delle Donne have been depth and shooting, and both of those have taken a hit the last two years. They will be better than last season having brought back Delle Donne and Tina Charles, but this is not the same team that won the WNBA Championship in 2019. 

Washington was third in rebounding rate in 2019 and first in offensive rating at an absurd 112.9. Chicago was second that year at 101.6. Rebounding could be an issue with Myisha Hines-Allen out, and even when she returns, Washington won’t likely play Elena Delle Donne at the three nearly as much as she used to. Playing three guards instead will definitely hurt their rebounding.

Washington’s shooting should be strong, at least in the backcourt, so long as Leilani Mitchell can bounce back. She shot 30.5 percent on threes last season, her lowest percentage since 2009. She should get more easy looks with Delle Donne and Tina Charles on the floor, as will the rest of Washington’s guards.

Betting Outlook

I don’t understand why Washington is +500 to win the Championship and Phoenix is +1100. I think they are basically the same team. Phoenix has a big three as opposed to a big two, but Washington’s sixth woman is markedly better than anyone Phoenix will have coming off the bench. Even with Chicago and Minnesota getting bet down to +650, I think I like both of those bets better than Washington. Elena Delle Donne is +550 to win MVP despite having won the award the last time she played. If I had to bet one of the favorites, I think she would be my pick over Breanna STeward (+250) and A’ja Wilson (+300). I don’t, on the other hand, thing there is much value on betting Tina Charles (+3000), Myisha Hines-Allen (+10000), Natasha Cloud (+10000) or Ariel Atkins (+10000). I think there are bigs who are as good or better than Charles who over better payouts, while I don’t think the other three have any chance of winning.

Fantasy Outlook

Tina Charles averaged 31.7 and 33.4 fppg her last two seasons in New York, two of the three lowest marks of her 10-year career. Charles was the only player opposing teams had to worry stopping, and is showed in her career-low 38.9 percent shooting in 2019. Playing next to Elena Delle Donne and a handful of other high-level starters, I think Charles will get back up near the 37 fppg she averaged in 2017. 

Elena Delle Donne is so good it probably doesn’t matter what the team looks like around her, but I wonder if she has to play the four more often if that hurts her fantasy production some. That being said, she has averaged at least 35.6 fppg in five consecutive seasons, and if she falls under that this season, it probably won’t be by much. That being said, Delle Donne will likely cost a lot more than Tina Charles initially, and I think they could produce similar numbers for fantasy.

Probably the biggest question mark on this team for fantasy is Myisha Hines-Allen. In 2020 she tripled her minutes and fantasy points per game from her first two seasons. With most of Washington’s bench depth gone, Hines-Allen will still play a lot, but I think we’re looking at 20-25 minutes per game rather than the 29.9 she averaged last season. Hines-Allen averaged 0.99 fantasy points per minute in 2019, and I think she gets closer to that number this season than the 1.15 fantasy points per minute she averaged in the Wubble. She could get more minutes if Washington tries to play big with Elena Delle Donne at the three, but even if that is the case, Hines-Allen will have more competition for shots and rebounds than she did last season.

Unless one of them winds up playing a lot less than the others, I think Ariel Atkins, Natasha Cloud and Leilani Mitchell will all be roughly the same for fantasy. All three were much worse per minute in 2020 than the were in 2019, and I expect them to bounce back in that regard. Mostly, their production will come down to playing time. If they get similar minutes to 2020, which I think is likely, I think they will slightly outperform their 2020 numbers. If Elena Delle Donne gets a lot of minutes at the three and Sydney Wiese becomes the fourth guard Washington never had last season, they could be disappointing. At the very least, I think all three will be solid cash games until Myisha Hines-Allen joins the team.

It is hard to imagine anyone else on this team will be relevant for fantasy barring a lot of starters missing time. That being said, Stella Johnson averaged 23.1 fantasy points in two starts last season, so if two or three of Washington’s guards are out, Johnson should be a value play.