This WNBA Team Preview series was originally going to go in alphabetical order, though that wouldn’t have been the case had I known Nicki Collen would leave the Atlanta Dream a week after we published the Atlanta Dream Team Preview. In any event, when our very own Howard Bender expressed on Twitter how much he was looking forward to the Las Vegas Aces preview, I decided I could not keep him waiting. Let me know which team you want me to preview next on Twitter for in the FANation chat.

2020 Results

18-4 record, top seed in the playoffs. Swept in the finals by Seattle, losing each game by 13+ points

Offseason Moves

?      Signed free agent Chelsea Gray

?      Re-signed Liz Cambage

?      Signed Dearica Hamby to a contract extension

?      Signed Riquna Williams

?      Free-agent Kayla McBride signed with the Minnesota Lynx.

Offseason Outlook

For the second consecutive offseason, the Aces prioritized talent over fit. It worked for the Aces in the wubble, as Angel McCoughtry was excellent in limited minutes and the Aces had the best record in the league despite Liz Cambage opting out and Kelsey Plum missing the season with an Achilles injury.

I think it will work again in 2021. No team is better positioned to weather injuries to its top players than the Aces, and they should be able to give all of their starters periodic days off to rest during the season. The Aces bench had the best net rating in the league last season, and the bench is even deeper in 2021. While they still don’t have a ton of shooting, they do have a few more players who can shoot from distance with Riquna Williams and Chelsea Gray joining Kelsey Plum.

That being said, this team literally does not have any wing players. Riquna Williams can play shooting guard but she is 5’7”. Angel McCoughtry was surprisingly good at the three last season but her best position is still at the four. Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young and Destiny Slocum are all point guards. Chelsea Gray has been objectively better than Kayla McBride the last couple of seasons, but you could argue the Aces would have been better off bringing back McBride rather than adding yet another player who is best with the ball in her hands.

Draft Outlook

The Aces selected Iliana Rupert with the last pick in the first round and guard Destiny Slocum two picks later. Neither is expected to contribute much right away, though Rupert has intriguing upside as the two-time reigning Euroleague Young Player of the Year. Slocum faces a crowded guard depth chart in Las Vegas, but she would likely be a solid contributor if she gets regular playing time, either in Las Vegas or elsewhere.

Projected Starting Five

PG Chelsea Gray

SG Kelsey Plum

SF Angel McCoughtry

PF A’ja Wilson

C Liz Cambage

The only starting spot that may be up for grabs is SG, but it is hard to imagine Kelsey Plum wouldn’t get the first crack at it. She has started 80 of 96 games in her WNBA career, and her three-point shooting will likely be vital in the starting lineup. Considering their roles on this team, Plum really isn’t much different than Riquna Williams, but Williams has come off the bench in 85 of her 200 career WNBA games. Williams is probably better getting to the basket than Plum, and that skill will be more valuable to this team coming off the bench. I could see head coach Bill Laimbeer bringing Plum off the bench to use her as the point guard when Chelsea Gray sits, but Jackie Young’s improvement as the backup point guard in the wubble could mean Plum doesn’t have to play the point at all. Even if Plum does run the point when Gray sits, Bill Laimbeer could start Plum and bring her off early for Williams. That would allow Plum to come back into the game with the second unit.

2021 Outlook

One thing we have to keep in mind when we look at how these teams will do in 2021 compared to 2020 is that a lot of teams are getting back players who opted out of the wubble. The Aces aren’t the only contender who looks deeper and more formidable than they did a season ago. That being said, the Aces are adding an MVP candidate, arguably the best point guard in the league and a former Sixth Woman of the Year. They join a team that already had the two-time reigning Sixth Woman and the reigning MVP. Even considering the loss of Kayla McBride, the Aces look like the best team in the league on paper. They are my pick to finish with the best record in the WNBA and homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs.

That being said, I still have concerns about this team, especially in the playoffs. The Aces attempted the fewest three-pointers in the league last season and while it didn’t hurt them in the regular season, it could have contributed to their inability to come back when Seattle went up big during the WNBA finals. We also have to wonder if there are diminishing returns from having so many ball-dominant players on one roster.

Perhaps the most interesting question for this team is who will play the three when Angel McCoughtry is out. They could play Jackie Young in a three-guard lineup, but she doesn’t really fit there offensively. Three-guard lineups with Riquna Williams and Kelsey Plum on the wing would likely struggle defensively. I wanted the Aces to play Cambage, Wilson and Hamby together more in 2019, but that lineup would have little spacing and could struggle defensively with one of the bigs having to chase around faster wings.

Finally, the last issue this team could struggle with is having enough touches to keep everyone happy. Liz Cambage has proven at times to be volatile both on and off the court, and we cannot assume she will immediately have chemistry with new point guard Chelsea Gray or that she would be okay ceding touches to A’ja Wilson or Angel McCoughtry. I believe in Bill Laimbeer, and thus this team will probably be okay in the playoffs, but I don’t think this team will just waltz to a title.

Betting Outlook

At this team last year, the Aces had the best championship odds at +300. Of course, things changed with Liz Cambage’s absence and Kelsey Plum’s injury, but the Aces did manage to make it to the WNBA finals. This season, the Aces are +350 to win the title but find themselves behind Seattle and Washington. I think the Aces should be the favorite, and thus there is some value to be had at their price. The only reason this isn’t my favorite championship bet is there might be better value elsewhere. Are the Aces that much better than the Lynx (+1700) or the Sky (+1000)? I’m not so sure.

Fantasy Outlook

The Aces led the league in points and rebounds per game last season and were third in assists. I expect them to be just as good this season, which means they should generate a bunch of fantasy points yet again. The problem, at least compared to last year, is that those fantasy points will not be as concentrated. Every player in this rotation is at risk of getting fewer minutes and touches than the last time we saw them in the WNBA. We probably won’t have the luxury of fading this team altogether early on, but we may have to look elsewhere for value picks.

Last season, Angel McCoughtry and A’ja Wilson were second and fourth in fantasy points per minute, with Dearica Hamby 19th. Chelsea Gray was 37th. In 2019, Liz Cambage was second in fantasy points per minute, A’ja Wilson was 10th and Dearica Hamby was 21st. I think all of those players will be very good again on a per-minute basis, and whenever one or more of the rotation players is out, the remaining starters will see a nice boost in value.

I think the safest player on this roster may be Chelsea Gray. She has played with loaded frontcourts and MVP candidates before and still produced at a high level. I think we can safely assume she will continue to do the same

One interesting aspect to keep an eye on is how fast the Aces play this season. Las Vegas led the league in pace in 2020 and 2018 and were second to the Sky in 2019. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Sparks were seventh in pace last season, thanks to a 96.52 pace when Chelsea Gray was on the court and a 103.08 pace when she sat. We shouldn’t assume that Gray cannot or will not play at a faster pace, but it is certainly possible she is just one of those point guards who prefers to slow the game down and call out the plays. If that is the case, the Aces could generate fewer fantasy points than we would otherwise expect.