Let's shake off those NYE hangovers and ring in the new year with some CFB DFS cash!
Looking at this five-game slate, you are simply going to have to get out of the comfort zone and roll with some players facing top defenses. It's just unavoidable today with so many playing today. Here's a quick look at the S&P+ defensive ranks for these ten teams:
Mississippi State: 6th / 17th vs. Run / 2nd vs. Pass
Iowa: 20th / 23rd vs. Run / 29th vs. Pass
LSU: 14th / 28th vs. Run / 5th vs. Pass
UCF: 36th / 43rd vs. Run / 24th vs. Pass
Kentucky: 21st / 36th vs. Run / 15th vs. Pass
Penn State: 11th / 41st vs. Run / 12th vs. Pass
Washington: 3rd / 11th vs. Run / 19th vs. Pass
Ohio State: 37th / 79th vs. Run / 74th vs. Pass
Texas: 55th / 44th vs. Run / 53rd vs. Pass
Georgia:16th / 57th vs. Run / 3rd vs. Pass
So, we aren't talking "elite" here, but very good for the most part. Knowing that there will be some defense played, you can't shy away from tough matchups. First, though, let's exploit the areas we can find some openings and build from there. We'll start with Washington players facing a lackluster Ohio State defense and get RB Miles Gaskin in the lineup first. Gaskin gets 21 carries/game despite sharing some work with Salvon Ahmed, who will get his fair share of touches as well. He had a 170-yard, three touchdown performance against Washington State two outings ago. Now a Senior, he has something to prove in his swan song. Unfortunatley, he's priced appropriately and will cost us $7,900. I don't trust Huskies QB Jake Browning as much, but assuming he can get off a few passes downfield, Andre Baccelia has been the most consistent target in recent weeks - even though he hasn't found the end zone once this season. That keeps the price low and gives some breathing room in the lineup. Georgia should be able to move the ball against Texas both through the air and on the ground with the latter being the preferred method. They have two backs to choose from and both are great options. We'll lean towards the cheaper of the two and go with Elijah Holyfield Jr. ($5,100) over D'Andre Swift ($7,700). Keep in mind, we wouldn't have any problem with Swift anchoring a lineup either.
Apparently, if there is an area to exploit UGA on defense it is with the run game, it's just tough to trust Keaontay Ingram, who garnered just four totes (for seven yards) against OU in the Big12 Championship game. Tre Watson might be the better option, but we aren't going there. I just can't see a lineup today with all-everything Kentucky back Benny Snell in there. Penn State is really solid, but can be exploited in the run game. He's the most expensive non-QB option, but he's just too darn good to keep out and with limited options today, it puts an extended emphasis on getting the top players in the lineup. Now, what do we do around him?
Surveying the QB pool, there are some expensive big names, but we are spending at RB in this particular lineup, so, let's go with LSU's Joe Burrow against UCF. He can do it with his arms and legs and he gives us significant cost savings for the rest of this lineup. Because I like having a QB-to-WR combo in my lineups and sophomore Justin Jefferson has emerged as the go-to-guy in the passing game, we'll slot him in one of those open WR spots at $6,000. We will backfill that last WR spot after we get S-FLEX figured out. Usually, I like to go QB-QB in these lineups, today makes that a bit more challenging with the tougher slate. After looking through it, we have a lot of the better skill position options in there already and I do like the running ability of Mississippi State QB Nick Fitzgerald. At $6,900, he leaves us with $4,200 for the final WR spot and we'll go with Penn State's Pat Freiermuth. With Kentucky focused on locking down top options KJ Hamler and DeAndre Thompkins, expect the freshman to get free a few times, enought to return on that price.
So, there you have it:
QB - Joe Burrow - $7,500
RB - Miles Gaskin - $7,900
RB - Elijah Holyfield - $5,100
WR - Andre Baccellia - $4,000
WR - Justin Jefferson - $6,000
WR - Pat Freiermuth - $4,200
Flex - Benny Snell - $8,400
S-Flex - Nick Fitzgerald - $6,900