Here we are! CFP Semifinals are here...oh, and don’t forget about the “other” three games going on prior to the Cotton and Orange Bowls.  We’ll put them all together for a great day of DFS action. Let’s take a look at all four games with some key S&P+ metrics to help identify the top plays of the day.
 

12:00 PM - Peach Bowl - Michigan (-6.0) vs. Florida - Total: 51.0

S&P+ Michigan: Offense: 24; Rush: 33; Pass: 10 // Defense: 5; Rush: 10: Pass: 20

S&P+ Florida: Defense: 26; Rush: 47; Pass: 28 // Offense: 27; Rush: 32; Pass: 30
 

12:00 PM - Belk Bowl - South Carolina (-5.0) vs. Virginia - Total: 54.0

S&P+ South Carolina: Offense: 29; Rush: 71; Pass: 18 // Defense: 61; Rush: 94: Pass: 35

S&P+ Virginia: Defense: 29; Rush: 39: Pass: 27 // Offense: 65; Rush: 99; Pass: 62
 

4:00 PM - Cotton Bowl - Clemson (-12.5) vs. Notre Dame - Total: 56.5

S&P+ Clemson: Offense: 7; Rush: 8; Pass: 27 // Defense: 1; Rush: 1: Pass: 6

S&P+ Notre Dame: Defense: 4; Rush: 18: Pass: 8 // Offense: 26; Rush: 74; Pass: 21
 

8:00 PM - Orange Bowl - Alabama (-14.0) vs. Oklahoma - Total: 77.0

S&P+ Alabama: Offense: 2; Rush: 5; Pass: 1 // Defense: 8; Rush: 4: Pass: 7

S&P+ Oklahoma: Defense: 89; Rush: 53: Pass: 91 // Offense: 1; Rush: 1; Pass: 2
 

Those are a lot of numbers that may not make much sense to you, but here are a few to look at.  First of all, the obvious 77 total in the Alabama/OU game. We all expect a lot of plays, a lot of points and a lot of fantasy scoring. Loading up on the final game of the night is a solid plan. How will Clemson’s 7th ranked offense handle Notre Dame’s 4th ranked defense?  Similarly, how will the Irish 26th ranked offense (and better under Ian Book) fare against Clemson’s No. 1 and downright smothering defense? South Carolina and QB Jake Bentley can move it through the air, but Virginia has a solid pass defense. That Michigan-Florida game *should* be a defensive struggle, but how often do things go as they *should* in Bowl season?
 

We will go position-by-position and identify the top plays, best values and who we are fading to help determine our loaded Saturday lineups…
 

QUARTERBACK
 

The obvious top choices are the two top finishers in the Heisman race, OU’s Kyler Murray and Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa. You’ll have to pay for each one but a lineup with those two featured is doable (more on that in the lineups section below). What’s funny is that ‘Bama backup Jalen Hurts is actually third-most expensive, tied with UVA’s Bryce Perkins. Perkins is tough to figure out, as he’s a run-first guy that wants to throw it more often than he probably should (see: Khalil Tate). Both Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Notre Dame’s Ian Book are exciting players with big upsides, but face tough opposition. Lawrence, in particular, has been impressive after taking over the reigns of the offense. He’s on pace to be the top true freshman quarterback since @PFF_College started keeping track. UM QB Shea Patterson is a solid option but Florida will make like tough on him. I really like South Carolina’s Jake Bentley against Virginia at his price - which is the lowest amongst all of the QB’s. Sure, Virginia has a solid pass defense per the S&P+ numbers, but they really didn’t face too many passing attacks like the Gamecocks possess. When they did, Ryan Finley and NC State put up 22/32, 257, 3 TD, 0 INT against them. I’d be perfectly happy with those numbers from Bentley, who does have to go without his top wideout in Deebo Samuel for this one. Not worried about it.
 

RUNNING BACK
 

Clemson’s Travis Etienne leads the pack with a salary of $8,200, which isn’t very high for the top option. Notre Dame will slow Clemson, but won’t completely stop them and Etienne is the unquestioned top back in a great offense. You can certainly do worse. On the other side is the Irish’s Dexter Williams, who burst back on the scene after some suspension, injury and doghouse problems occurred. He’s back but certainly hasn’t seen anything like this Clemson front. Fading him. I do like UVA’s dual-threat Olamide Zaccheaus who is definitely more of a receiver than a running back. So, feel free to take advantage of this mis-casting by DK and get him in there for $6,200. He has 81 catches and six TD’s this season. The actual top option in that Cavaliers running game is Jordan Ellis, who shares with Perkins but gets a healthy amount of carries. He should see 12-20 in this one and can really return on his $4,700 price tag. With no Karan Higdon for Michigan, Chris Evans will see the majority of carries (we think) and could return on a $5,800 tag - though, again, Florida’s defense is not to be messed with. Tru Wilson could work his way more into the rotation now. Can’t trust that outside of tournament lineups. That’s about it for the top options, as the rest of the group here will at least share carries.  OU’s Trey Sermon is intriguing just because of the offense he resides in. Though, Kennedy Brooks should see some touches and, well, it’s still Alabama. Speaking of the Tide. Where do you go? Josh Jacobs has emerged recently, but we know  Saban and Co. want to keep the backs fresh and they have both Damien Harris and Najee Harris there to steal carries and touchdowns. The Gators will go with Lamical Perine first and foremost, but Jordan Scarlett will get his too. Too many splits and good defenses in this mix.
 

WIDE RECEIVER / TIGHT END
 

There are plenty of big names to choose from. So, who do you go with? Alabama’s duo of Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle are going to be very heavily owned against that OU “defense”. Even Henry Ruggs III and/or Irv Smith Jr. are solid plays for their upside and value when backfilling your lineups after picking the big boys. You have to like Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, but he was banged up in their last game and may be slowed a bit. That could make CeeDee Lamb a top target in this one too. I really like Bryan Edwards to play the role of Deebo Samuel for Jake Bentley and the South Carolina passing game. I’m fading Notre Dame’s Miles Boykin against this Clemson shut-down defense, but like a cheaper, secondary options like Chase Claypool. I mean, it’s not like Notre Dame will get shutout … right? Clemson’s freshman Justyn Ross is a big play waiting to happen. He has four, 50-yard+ touchdown receptions this year and is really starting to develop a solid rapport with fellow true freshman Trevor Lawrence. I’d rather play Ross and take my chances than pay up for Tee Higgins, who is their best receiver season-long, but can disappear. As we look for cheaper values down the road a bit, you could feel comfortable going with a familiar name in Hunter Renfroe, who caught a National Championship-winning touchdown a couple of years ago. He’s a solid option for cash games and comes in cheaper than both Higgins and Ross. You shouldn’t have to go too much deeper than that.  If you are looking for a true deep sleeper for a tournament lineup, you could go with Michigan’s Tarik Black, who has just two catches on the season after recovering from an injury. Coming into the season, he was expected to be their best option and could show up. Don’t count on that.
 

Lineup time!
 

Cash Example (Tua & Kyler)
 

QB - Kyler Murray - $9,300

RB - Jordan Ellis - $4,700

RB - Olamide Zaccheaus - $6,200

WR - Hunter Renfroe - $4,100

WR - Justyn Ross - $4,900

WR - Jaylen Waddle - $5,600

Flex - Bryan Edwards - $6,700

S-Flex - Tua Tagovailoa - $8,500
 

Cash Example 2 (Bentley)
 

QB - Jake Bentley - $6,900

RB - Travis Etienne - $8,200

RB - Trey Sermon - $6,000

WR - Chase Claypool - $5,400

WR - Irv Smith Jr. - $4,500

WR - Jaylen Waddle - $5,600

Flex - Justyn Ross - $4,900

S-Flex - Tua Tagovailoa - $8,500
 

Tournament Example
 

QB - Trevor Lawrence - $7,500

RB - Jordan Scarlett - $4,700

RB - Trey Sermon - $6,000

WR - Jerry Jeudy - $7,200

WR - CeeDee Lamb - $6,800

WR - Amari Rodgers - $4,500

Flex - Najee Harris - $4,000

S-Flex - Kyler Murray - $9,300