This Playbook focuses on the main slate of action during Championship week throughout College Football. Here is a quick primer on each of the eight games included in this slate:
Marshall @ Virginia Tech - 11:00 AM :: This is an interesting one and only a game being played so that Virginia Tech has a chance to be bowl eligible after having a game cancelled earlier this season. Had the Hokies lost last week to Virginia, this game would not have been played. Is making a Bowl game and keeping that streak alive enough motivation for the Hokies? One more game, sure, why not? Marshall is a formidable opponent however. They are seventh in defensive S&P+ according to BillC’s numbers and that is enough to keep me away from too many players in this one. Marshall’s offense has been stagnant most of the season as they’ve been winning with that defense. They are calling for rain early in the forecast too. Everything is pointing towards a big, fat “avoid”. If I am playing one player in this game it’s a dart throw on either QB as VT’s Ryan Willis, who is priced very reasonably ($5,800) and can do the job with both his arm and legs. While Marshall signal-caller Isaiah Green gets a suspect Tech pass defense and could put up some numbers through the air.
Texas vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Championship, Dallas TX) - 11:00 AM :: We all know what this OU offense is capable of. We also know what the OU defense is capable of allowing. The game plan for Texas to win (again) against the Sooners is ball-control. Therefore, you may see quite a bit of RB Keaontay Ingram for the Longhorns. Though QB Sam Ehlinger can do it with his arm and legs, expect there to be plenty of opportunities for the Texas offense to score. All of the big-time OU players, including the top projected point-getter in the slate QB Kyler Murray, are in play. His top target Marquise Brown and “secondary” option CeeDee Lamb are easily solid plays. RB Kennedy Brooks has emerged as the top running back, but the lower-priced Trey Sermon could be a solid value opportunity as well. Last time these two met it was 48-45. Expect similar output, but not quite to that extent. You can feel confident that most strategies include these two teams in a stack. You can do that, but you’ll need to diversify your lineup. We’ll do this for you at the end of the article.
Stanford @ California - 2:00 PM :: This is a make-up for a game that was “smoked out” by the California wildfires originally scheduled for two weeks ago. It’s a rivalry game and while neither has anything much to play for - this game always brings out the best in both squads. Each team is bowl eligible at 7-4 and clearly aren’t playing in the Pac12 Championship on Friday Night. Cal RB Patrick Laird comes in as our top option in this one. His ability to run the ball and get involved in the passing game makes him an intriguing prospect despite being on a less-than exciting offense that has the least amount of projected points in the slate. Stanford isn’t as stout on defense as they have been in the past so Laird is an option at a decent price ($6,100). Both top Cal WR’s Kanawai Noa and Vic Wharton III are banged up and might produce a zero. We need to avoid those at all costs. Cal’s defense has been a big surprise this season and are capable of stopping RB Bryce Love and QB K.J. Costello. However, stopping a healthy WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is more of a tall task. He’s expensive, but can dominate at any point. He’s the only Cardinal worth consideration in my opinion.
Memphis @ UCF (AAC Championship) - 2:30 PM :: This one could be a lot of fun. It will also be interesting to see how new UCF QB Darriel Mack Jr. takes over the reigns of the offense full-time after the gruesome injury to McKenzie Milton. In limited action so far, Mack is 21-for-43 (48.8%) for 174 yards (4.0 yards per attempt) with no TD’s and no picks. He’s carried 40 times for 281 and two scores. So, it’s pretty obvious that he’s a run-first guy. The problem with that is without much of a threat of pass, it allows a respectable Memphis defense to key on stopping that aspect and make him throw. Now, we haven’t seen enough of him throwing to assume that he’s going to be this pedestrian as a passer. So, there’s that. I’m staying away from all UCF receivers in this one and instead focusing on a guy like RB Adrian Killins Jr. who can get involved in the screen and short-passing game. Something that a guy like Mack will likely need to utilize. Memphis has all-everything RB Darrell Henderson and some really exciting weapons for QB Brady White, including WR Damonte Coxie and RB/WR Tony Pollard. Pollard especially has come on of late and fulfilled his massive potential. He received a season-high 11 carries last week against Houston and hauled in eight passes. There *should* be plenty of points scored in this one - there is just some question marks on the UCF side of the new offense.
Alabama vs. Georgia (SEC Championship, Atlanta, GA) - 3:00 PM :: Hmmmm. Very interesting. One thing to keep in mind, and something that BillC has harped on in his S&P+ ratings and on PAPN (Podcast ‘Aint Played Nobody - that EVERYBODY should be listening to) is that UGA has been playing at an Alabama/Clemson level the past month. They just don’t seem to finish drives. That can change on a dime and when it does, look out. The Bulldogs can score with Alabama. QB Jake Fromm will try to manage the game and there is no clear-cut number one wide receiver or running back in this offense, which is frustrating from a DFS standpoint. You could go with Mecole Hardman, Terry Godwin, Riley Ridley and/or TE Isaac Nauta and have the same chance for success. So, who is the cheapest of the group? Well, they are all pretty cheap for good reason, but Godwin is only $3,200 and Nauta is just $3,100 - perfect for Tournament/GPP lineups. Take your pick between RB D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield, though, this is still Alabama’s defense and unless you are hoping for a score from one of these guys, you are better off avoiding. On Alabama’s side, you of course have Heisman lock QB Tua Tagovailoa and his litany of weapons, including top option WR Jerry Jeudy. After that, you are a bit more likely to have some anxiety as either freshman Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith and/or Henry Ruggs III could play second-fiddle.
Fresno State @ Boise State (Mountain West Championship) - 6:45 PM :: Back on the blue turf for the Mountain West title game where Boise held off the red hot and charging Bulldogs just three weeks ago. It was a close game, but the Broncos came out on top. It was also a defensive game. I don’t see any reason to think it would be much different this time around. The Vegas total is 52.5, though I think that’s a bit high. There are plenty of intriguing names to consider including Boise QB Brett Rypien and RB Alexander Mattison, along with a trio of receivers who all could contribute. For Fresno, they have a dynamic quarterback in Marcus McMaryion, though he was bottled up a bit in their last meeting by a solid and improving Boise defense. However, if there is a side to exploit on this defense, it is through the air where they rank 94th in passing S&P+ on defense. The running backs are a constant rotation and while that can be frustrating, the prices certainly follow suit and Ronnie Rivers has slowly began to hoard some of the carries and pull away from the pack as the lead back. Either way, not so sure going that route is a smart proposition against a solid run stopping unit. As for the Bulldog receivers, just one name is needed - Keesean Johnson. He’s their go-to guy and Boise doesn’t have one (or two) defenders to completely stop him. He managed eight catches for 95 and a score in their last meeting and has 87 catches for 1,267 and eight scores on the year. He’s a top player and should be treated as such.
Clemson vs. Pittsburgh (ACC Championship, Charlotte, NC) - 7:00 PM :: This should be a blowout and we aren’t even going to entertain any Panthers in this one. The Clemson stars, including QB Trevor Lawrence ($8,200), RB Travis Etienne ($8,700) and a trio of capable receivers (Tee Higgins, Amari Rodgers and Justyn Ross) are the way to go in this one. The only fear is that is gets out of hand early and some of these bigger names get rested up for the College Football Playoff, which is inevitably next up in their future. That opens up opportunities for backup RB Adam Choice and Tavien Feaster to get their touches and return some nice value. Those are the top value plays in tournament and GPP lineups for sure. Again, no Panthers. Just don’t.
Northwestern vs. Ohio State (B1G Championship, Indianapolis, IN) - 7:00 PM :: In another one that *should* be a blowout, the Buckeyes come in riding a high off of great offensive performance against what was the top defense in the country (Michigan). So, could there be some let-down? Well, considering Northwestern has seem to draw plenty of apathy from opponents this year, playing down to their level of competition - sure, that’s a possiblity. But, remember, this OSU team has a lot to play for. Even if OU beats Texas earlier in the day, a severe thrashing of their Big 10 counterpart in the Championship game *could* leapfrog them ahead of the defenseless Sooners and into the No. 4 spot of the CFP. So, expect them to bring their “A” game and be motivated by Urban Meyer to lay into the Wildcats and keep pouring it on. Obviously, you should be targeting QB Dwayne Haskins Jr. and both RB’s J.K. Dobbins and/or Mike Weber are in play. The receivers seem to share weeks being the top guy, but with plenty to go around, they should all contribute. We’d rank them as 1) Parris Campbell, 2) K.J. Hill, 3.) Johnnie Dixon and 4) Chris Olave. Any/all are in play and this is why playing multiple lineups is so valuable in this CFB DFS landscape.
So, on to actual lineup construction. We will provide two cash options and two GPP options here. Feel free to mix and match based on some of the analysis above.
Example Lineup: Red River Stack (Cash)
QB - Kyler Murray (OU vs. UT) - $10,300
RB - Keaontay Ingram (UT vs. OU) - $5,900
RB - Trey Sermon (OU vs. UT) - $4,700
WR - Lil’Jordan Humphrey (UT vs. OU) - $7,400
WR - CeeDee Lamb (OU vs. UT) - $6,200
WR - Isaac Nauta (UGA vs. BAMA) - $3,100
Flex - Chris Olave (OSU vs. NW) - $3,400
S-Flex - Sam Ehlinger (UT vs. OU) - $9,000
Example Lineup: Red River + Clemson (Cash)
QB - Sam Ehlinger (UT vs. OU) - $9,000
RB - Kennedy Brooks (OU vs. UT) - $7,500
RB - Adam Choice (CLEM vs. PITT) - $3,900
WR - Devin Duvernay (UT vs. OU) - $4,600
WR - Tee Higgins (CLEM vs. PITT) - $6,400
WR - Justyn Ross (CLEM vs. PITT) - $5,600
Flex - Trey Sermon (OU vs. UT) - $4,700
S-Flex - Trevor Lawrence (CLEM vs. PITT) - $8,200
Example Lineup: Tournament #1 - BIG RB’s
QB - Dwayne Haskins (OSU vs. NW) - $9,200
RB - Travis Etienne (CLEM vs. PITT) - $8,700
RB - Darrell Henderson (MEM @ UCF) - $9,500
WR - Johnnie Dixon (OSU vs. NW) - $5,000
WR - Terry Godwin (UGA vs. BAMA) - $3,200
WR - Jaylen Waddle (BAMA vs. UGA) - $4,900
Flex - Adam Choice (CLEM vs. PITT) - $3,900
S-Flex - Tony Pollard (MEM @ UCF) - $5,500
Example Lineup: Tournament #2 (Murray + Haskins)
QB - Kyler Murray (OU vs. UT) - $10,300
RB - Tavien Feaster (CLEM vs. PITT) - $4,100
RB - Adrian Killins Jr. (UCF vs. MEM) - $6,000
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (STAN @ CAL) - $7,300
WR - Riley Ridley (UGA vs. BAMA) - $4,100
WR - Henry Ruggs III (BAMA vs. UGA) - $5,400
Flex - Chris Olave (OSU vs. NW) - $3,400
S-Flex - Dwayne Haskins (OSU vs. NW) - $9,200
FanDuel
As usual, we can’t forget about our friends at FanDuel and give you some insight into how to win over there. They have a similar slate, except they add in the Middle Tennessee/UAB C-USA title game and UL-Lafayette/Appalachian State Sun Belt Championship. These replace the non-title games that DK included (Cal/Stanford and VA Tech/Marshall).
That C-USA title game will be very defensive and don’t particularly like anybody individually. Though, Appalachian State and UL-Lafayette can get pointsy and you may want to take a look at QB Zac Thomas, RB Darrynton Evans or WR Corey Sutton for the Mountaineers and ULL RB Trey Ragas.
CASH:
QB - Trevor Lawrence (CLEM vs. PITT) - $9,200
RB - Trey Sermon (OU vs. TEX) - $8,800
RB - Keaontay Ingram (TEX vs. OU) - $8,300
WR - KeeSean Johnson (FRES @ BOIS) - $9,700
WR - Hunter Renfrow (CLEM vs. PITT) - $6,300
WR - A.J. Richardson (BOIS vs. FRES) - $8,000
S-FLEX - Zac Thomas (APST vs. ULL) - $9,700
TOURNEY / GPP:
QB - Darriel Mack Jr. (UCF vs. MEM) - $8,400
RB - Travis Etienne (CLEM vs. PITT) - $10,000
RB - Trey Ragas (ULL @ APST) - $8,600
WR - Parris Campbell (OSU vs. NW) - $9,400
WR - Riley Ridley (UGA vs. ALA) - $7,600
WR - Corey Sutton (APST vs. ULL) - $7,900
S-FLEX - Brady White (MEM @ UCF) - $8,100