Welcome to Rivalry Week! Easily one of my favorite days of the year and exactly the reason I love college football so much. Seeing the pure, raw emotion on display is simply incredible and it shows just how invested each and every player is with the school pride and the pure competition. It’s why I’ll take a Saturday over a Sunday every week! We’ll follow the same format as yesterday and put some lineup options at the bottom. Here’s to a strong finish!
FLORIDA @ FLORIDA STATE
Florida -7, O/U 52, Implied Total - Florida 29.5, Florida State 22.5
Florida Defense Allows - 168.5 Rush YPG, 174.7 Pass YPG
Florida State Defense Allows - 135.5 RYPG, 270.0 PYPG
It’s difficult to really feel good about putting trust in anyone in this game, but Florida State’s pass defense has been particularly bad this season. I’m certainly not a Feleipe Franks believer, but he may be worth a tournament dart, though there’s obviously a lot of risk involved. One of his receivers can be deployed as a one-off lower cost matchup upside play, as they are all in the $3400-4500 range. Van Jefferson has the most upside and Tyrie Cleveland is the cheapest. That said, there are likely better options available. Nyquan Murray has a depressed price, but the matchup is tough.
Targets:
QB Feleipe Franks
WR Van Jefferson, Josh Hammond, Tyrie Cleveland
WR Nyquan Murray
GEORGIA TECH @ GEORGIA
Georgia -17, O/U 59.5, Implied Total - Georgia 38, Georgia Tech 21
Georgia Tech Defense Allows - 137.5 RYPG, 223.0 PYPG
Georgia Defense Allows - 128.5 RYPG, 182.7 PYPG
Probably going to fade most of this game as well. Hard to pay up for committee guys in a game where the clock will be running the whole time. Taquan Marshall might bean intriguing QB2 athisprice point, but again, it’s hard to get excited about a QB going against Georgia.
Targets:
You can pay for the core studs (Swift, Holyfield) and they’ll be solid, but the ceilings are low here.
TEXAS TECH @ BAYLOR
Texas Tech -5, O/U 63, Implied Total - Texas Tech 34, Baylor 29
Texas Tech Defense Allows - 158.7 RYPG, 286.5 PYPG
Baylor Defense Allows - 181.6 RYPG, 237.6 PYPG
This game won’t be a fade. Nobody (probably Kliff Kingsbury included) knows who will be available at QB for Texas Tech, so I’m not even going to try to guess. As we saw Friday, there’s an under the table handshake agreement between coaches and their beat writes to not disclose information until about 5 minutes after kickoff. It’s awful, but life, for college football DFS. So, we’ll fade the QB for Tech, but still like their receivers, regardless of who’s throwing the ball. I really like Charlie Brewer as a low cost QB2 with this matchup. And his top receivers are definitely in play (Hurd, Mims).
Targets:
WR Antione Wesley, TJ Vasher, Ja’Deion High
QB Charlie Brewer
RB John Lovett
WR Jalen Hurd, Denzel Mims
SYRACUSE @ BOSTON COLLEGE
Boston College -7, O/U 57, Implied Total - Boston College 32, Syracuse 25
Syracuse Defense Allows - 169.2 RYPG, 264.1 PYPG
Boston College Defense Allows - 143.8 RYPG, 237.5 PYPG
The Eric Dungey dilemma is a painful one. When healthy and playing, he’s a star. Unfortunately, that’s a big IF and even if he plays, it’s not a guarantee he plays the whole game (see ND last week). He’s questionable this week,but Syracuse is notorious for using the depth chart to reflect the previous game rather than project the next game. BC has a solid defense, so we’ll hesitate, but not hate the Orange this week. AJ Dillon on the other side should get his, but there may be an opportunity for Anthony Brown and Kobay White to exceed expectations (which probably aren’t very high)
Targets:
QB Anthony Brown
RB AJ Dillon
WR Kobay White, Jeff Smith
PURDUE @ INDIANA
Purdue -4, O/U 61.5, Implied Total - Purdue 33, Indiana 29
Purdue Defense Allows - 166.6 RYPG, 274.9 PYPG
Indiana Defense Allows - 188.0 RYPG, 234.3 PYPG
Big Ten meets Big 12 here,as this one won’t be your traditional ground and pound game. There will be a lot of guys on both sides that will be in play here. Peyton Ramsey could be a sneaky play here against a suspect secondary of the Boilermakers. He spreads the ball around well, but Donovan Hale has reemerged as a top target, along with Nick Westbrook and Luke Timian. It’s been a but of a revolving door, but those have been the top three targets over the last month (each led one game in targets). David Blough and Rondale Moore continue to be electric for Purdue, with Isaac Zico and Terry Wright emerging as secondary targets. Stevie Scott is also an electric freshman running back for the Hoosiers, who has been great over the last 4 games and doesn’t break the bank. He’s in line for another big game
Targets:
QB Peyton Ramsey
RB Stevie Scott
WR Luke Timian, Nick Westbrook, Donovan Hale
QB David Blough
WR Rondale Moore, Isaac Zico, Terry Wright
MICHIGAN @ OHIO STATE
Michigan -3.5, O/U 59, Implied Total - Michigan 31, Ohio State 28
Michigan Defense Allows - 111.6 RYPG, 123.2 PYPG
Ohio State Defense Allows - 161.3 RYPG, 237.4 PYPG
While the metrics tell us MIchigan should have success, history tells us a completely different story. Ohio State has allowed over 5 yards per carry this season and I think Michigan and Karan Higson will be able to exploit them there. Ohio State has struggled to run the ball all year and Michigan has one of the best pass defenses in the country,so it’s hard to target there from a DFS standpoint. But, if we know anything, it’s that anything can happen in a game like this.
Targets:
RB Karan Higdon
AUBURN @ ALABAMA
Alabama -24, O/U 52, Implied Total - Alabama 38, Auburn 14
Auburn Defense Allows - 142.1 RYPG, 208.4 PYPG
Alabama Defense Allows - 112.5 RYPG, 169.5 PYPG
Much like MIchigan/Ohio State, even though all the numbers indicate Auburn will bo completely overmatched, it’s hard for me to predict the Iron Bowl will go according to script. Like the other as well, I think it will stay closer due to a stronger defensive showing from the underdog, rather than matching scores in a shootout. I’m sure Tua and his crew will have success wouldn’t fault you from rolling with them, but for me, I’ll look for other options.
Targets:
QB Tua Tagovailoa
WR Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Jaylen Waddle, Irv Smith
ARIZONA STATE @ ARIZONA
Arizona State -3, O/U 63, Implied Total - Arizona State 33, Arizona 30
Arizona State Defense Allows - 156.3 RYPG, 234.7 PYPG
Arizona Defense Allows - 164.9 RYPG, 269.9 PYPG
Manny Wilkins and N’Keal Harry get a bump going against the porous Arizona secondary. Shawn Poindexter has been a TD monster over the last month, with multiple scores in his last 4 games, however he rarely has any other catches, as his last 6 catches (2 per week) have resulted in TDs, making him a little boom or bust. Shun Brown comes at a nice discount from Poindexter stealing all the TDs, and JJ Taylor is a volumeback. Also, Eno Benjamin is a stud and has big game written all over his expensive price tag.
Targets:
QB Manny Wilkins
RB Eno Benjamin
WR N’Keal Harry
QB Khalil Tate
RB JJ Taylor
WR Shun Brown, Shawn Poindexter
PITTSBURGH @ MIAMI
Miami -5.5, O/U 51, Implied Total - Miami 28, Pitt 23
Pitt Defense Allows - 163.5 RYPG, 241.4 PYPG
Miami Defense Allows - 132.5 RYPG, 141.7 PYPG
Kenny Pickett has been good over the last month, but we’re probably fading most of this game. Lots of committee approaches and both are good defensive teams.
Targets:
None
MARYLAND @ PENN STATE
Penn State -14, O/U 55.5, Implied Total - Penn State 35, Maryland 21
Maryland Defense Allows - 172.5 RYPG, 202.1 PYPG
Penn State Florida Defense Allows - 177 RYPG, 186.6 PYPG
Miles Sanders and Trace McSorely should have good games on the ground and Anthony McFarland should build on the success he had last week, but his price shot through the roof and doesn’t seem like a great value anymore. You’ll have to pay for anyone here.
Targets:
RB Anthony McFarland
QB Trace McSorely
RB Miles Sanders
MINNESOTA @ WISCONSIN
Wisconsin -10, O/U 54, Implied Total - Wisconsin 32, Minnesota 22
MInnesota Defense Allows - 170.7 RYPG, 226.8 PYPG
Wisconsin Defense Allows - 154.0 RYPG, 207.8 PYPG
This has the makings of another Jonathan Taylor massive performance, hence his massive price tag. The risk factor will likely be spreading it around with Taiwan Deal and Alec Ingold stealing some of his points again (see the Illinois game). I like Deal as a discount to gain exposure to the favorable matchup if you fade Taylor. The Wisconsin defense hasn’t been as dominant and that may give Tyler Johnson a chance to have a good day, though he feels a little expensive.
Targets:
WR Tyler Johnson
RB Jonathan Taylor
RB Taiwan Deal
Example Lineups:
Main
QB - Peyton Ramsey
RB - Karan Higdon
RB - Stevie Scott
WR - Denzel Mims
WR - Luke Timian
WR - Kobay White
FLEX - JJ Taylor
SFLEX - Charlie Brewer
Main
QB - David Blough
RB - Eno Benjamin
RB - John Lovett
WR - Shun Brown
WR - Denzel Mims
WR - Isaac Zico
FLEX - Kobay White
SFLEX - Peyton Ramsey
Main
QB - Manny WIlkins
RB - Stevie Scott
RB - JJ Taylor
WR - N’Keal Harry
WR - TJ Vasher
WR - Donovan Hale
FLEX - Ravian Pierce
SFLEX - Peyton Ramsey
Main (afternoon eligible)
QB - Manny Wilkins
RB - Eno Benjamin
RB - Miles Sanders
WR - Shun Brown
WR - Tony Ellison
WR - Seth Williams
FLEX - Taiwan Deal
SFLEX - Khalil Tate