CFB DFS Playbook: Week 12

QB Will Grier

WVU

@OKSt

$10,100

Risk: Low

Upside: Huge

A fairly obvious pick here as this WVU/Oklahoma State game can and will get out of hand offensively. Grier continues to pile up passing stats and Grier comes in at No. 2 in this slate for projected points. The Cowboys don’t do much to stop the pass in general and even if they did, it’s not like we’d be in favor of fading this gun-slinger. The fact that this offense has no bones about completely abandoning the run game is another plus.
 

QB Taylor Cornelius

OKSt

WVU

$8,600

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

I foresee a few Grier/Cornelius lineups around this week.  You’ll want to be one of them. Like Grier, Cornelius plays in a fast offense and will need to keep pace with the Mountaineers.  Sure, WVU has a bit of a stronger defensive unit, but Vegas agrees they should keep this close (+5.5) and with an ungodly total of 73.5 - you’ll want to load up on players in this one.  Both Grier and Cornelius are expensive, so we’ll show you how to construct lineups with the two of them built-in.

QB Ryan Finley

NCSt

@Lou

$9,300

Risk: Medium

Upside: High

Finley is a top NFL prospect with a great arm and great options in a solid offense. Throw in the fact that he gets the Louisville defense, who doesn’t pose much (if any) of a threat to stop them.  Both Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers are fantastic options and should be running open quite a bit in this one. Assuming the Wolfpack come out firing, this is a great play. However, the only reason his “risk” is at a medium is that the Cardinals run defense is so bad and this has the potential of getting out of hand early, they might abandon the pass eventually.

QB Jamie Newman

Wake

Pitt

$7,100

Risk: High

Upside: High

Newman gets the keys to the fastest offense in FBS football.  If you saw him play against a solid NC State defense last week, you’d know this guy can play.  He went 22-for-33 with 297 and three touchdowns in their upset win over the Wolfpack. He also ran 13 times for 44 yards.  Now, he gets a Pitt defense that doesn’t scare too many. This game could turn into a back-and-forth affair, so at this price, you’re likely to get a solid return.

RB Karan Higdon

Mich

Ind

$7,700

Risk: Low

Upside: Huge

Higdon comes in as our top projected point scorer in this model.  Plus, he’s only $7,700 which is a bonus. Indiana doesn’t stop the run and Higdon has become the bellcow in this offense.  Michigan should get up and lean heavily on him. The Hoosiers are good enough to keep it somewhat close and the starters in the game, so 30+ carries could be in the cards like it was against Michigan State’s top rush defense (144 yards) and at Northwestern (115 yards, 2 TD) earlier this year.

RB Ryquell Armstead

Temp

USF

$8,600

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

You may have noticed that Armstead scored six rushing touchdowns last week against Houston.  He did so on 30 carries for 210 yards! Since missing the two prior games, he’s rested, healthy and SHREDDING opposing defenses. There is no other threat for carries and USF is just good enough on offense to keep this close and keep Armstead in the game and running wild.  Sure, the price is high and you aren’t likely getting him in a Grier/Cornelius lineup - but you won’t want to be without him when he continues this run.

RB Reggie Gallaspy II

NCSt

@Lou

$6,300

Risk: Medium

Upside: High

Louisville’s run defense is a microcosm of the season. They are just plan horrendous and the Wolfpack know this and will exploit fully.  Gallaspy II is a Senior and should take the lead in this one. His price fell a bit due to two outings without scoring (after finding paydirt in his first seven games).  Last week against Wake he had just 14 carries for 36 yards and there is the thought that the coaching staff will want to get some more work for freshman and future Ricky Person, Jr.  They can do that next week and in the bowl game. Let Gallaspy run loose in this one.

RB Alex Barnes

K-St

TTech

$6,600

Risk: Medium

Upside: Very High

Barnes has returned to his rightful place as the primary focus of the Wildcats offense. They can’t pass the ball even when their quarterback situation is figured out and solid. They will lean on the run and use play action to keep things honest (see Schoen later) but Barnes will get his touches. The risk here is that Tech’s run defense is better than their pass defense and if they focus on stopping that - we could see a dud.  However, $6,600 is a great price for a guy likely to top 20+ carries and has thrown in 16 grabs out of the backfield as a potential added bonus. Don’t love him - but certainly should be considered.

WR Kelvin Harmon

NCSt

@Lou

$8,100

Risk: Medium

Upside: Very High

It just wouldn’t be right to not have three NC State players against that broken Louisville squad.  Again, the only risk here is that the Wolfpack get out to a huge lead and abandon the pass. That said, there could be 50+ points up on the board with the starters in there and along with fellow WR Jakobi Meyers, there is no match for Harmon’s big body and “go get ‘em” attitude. He’ll be working to raise that draft stock too - so expect two scores.  Pay it.

WR Antoine Wesley

TTech

@K-St

$8,900

Risk: Low

Upside: High

Some may worry that the return of T.J. Vasher would cut into the new No. 1 at Tech.  However, we feel that this has a dual effect. There is another threat in the passing game and with Vasher getting attention, it gives Wesley even more room to roam. Wesley’s numbers are insane with 78 grabs for 1,347 yards and nine touchdowns this year.  Hence the large price tag. Again, if you are going two big-time QB’s you can’t afford either Wesley or Harmon, but we’ll show a lineup below with these guys included too.

WR Cody White

MichSt

@Neb

$5,100

Risk: Medium

Upside: High

White is back.  After missing four games, he got his legs under him against Maryland in week ten, followed by a ten-catch, 115 yard performance against Ohio State last week.  Don’t forget, he scored the first two weeks of the year and is a top option when healthy, which he finally appears to be. Nebraska poses very little threat in the secondary to stop him and with other injuries throughout the receiving corps, he’s the go-to. You should get a nice ROI from this price.

WR Trevon Wesco

WVU

GATech

$3,300

Risk: High

Upside: High

Going cheap here.  Just $3,300 for Wesco in a game that could see our boy Grier throwing 50+ times. Even with big-time options in David Sills V, Gary Jennings Jr. and Marcus Simms -- the Senior tight end is starting to really become a part of the mix.  He’s managed 12 catches (of 18 on the year) over the last three weeks and hauled in five for 86 and a score last week. A great dart throw option against Georgia Tech this week at a very cheap price.