CFB DFS Playbook: Saturday, 10/20

QB Kyler Murray

OU

@TCU

$9,800

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

This baseball player just keeps on playing football at a very high level, leading the best offense in all of college football. Granted, TCU on the road might be the toughest test he’s faced this year. But, go back to his last outing against a solid Texas defense when he shredded them, hitting 19-of-26 for 304 and four scores through the air. Throw in 92 on the ground and another score.  He’s a machine and no defense is going to completely stop this train. The Horned Frogs are the only reason he’s not in five figures and though that price tag is close, you’ll certainly want to have some shares of Murray in your CFB DFS lineups.

QB Jett Duffey

TTech

KU

$8,500

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

Duffey gets the start for the Tech offense ranked 5th in total offense and 20th in adjusted pace. He’s a dual-threat and while his passing numbers are less than desirable (60% completion rate, 2 TD, 4 INT) he had to deal with that tough TCU defense last Thursday and West Virginia the week prior to that. The Red Raiders get the Jayhawks this week and this presents a nice opportunity.  While KU hasn’t been as bad as we originally thought this year, they certainly don’t scare anybody. Duffey’s legs are where he’ll make you money. He took off 15 times for 86 yards against WVU and a score, and almost replicated that line exactly against the Frogs with 16 totes for 83 and a touchdown.

QB Peyton Ramsey

Ind

Penn St

$6,100

Risk: High

Upside: Medium

This is one of those in the introduction that we mentioned many will be scared away by the matchup with a generally tough PSU defense. He’s faced tough defenses this year and performed relatively admirably.  Against Michigan State he went 32/46, 272 yards, 2 TD. Then, against Ohio State in Columbus, he threw for 322 and three scores. Last week against Iowa, he hit 31/42 for 263 and a score. He won’t do ton with his legs, but has recorded double-digit carries the last four games. The Hoosiers will go fast to keep up and there is so much volume here for the price.

QB Peyton Bender

KU

@TTech

$5,700

Risk: High

Upside: High

Another Peyton here. Anybody ever asked if there is any relation to the great Howard Bender? Anyway, this one leads the Jayhawks offense that is in a bit flux after the firing of offensive coordinator, Doug Meachem.  Head coach David Beaty has been vague, calling the offense going forward a “team effort,” but did give a vote of confidence in naming Bender the starter. Even though the Raiders are better on defense, there should be plenty of opportunities trying to keep pace and you’re only starting Bender in the S-Flex spot in tournament games anyway.

RB Jonathan Taylor

Wisc

Illinois

$9,700

Risk: Very Low

Upside: Huge

Just a no-brainer here. And, no relation. In a college football DFS game with so few sure-things, this is about as close as we can get on a weekly basis.  Taylor gets Illinois, ranked 106th against the run this year and haven’t seen the likes of this NFL-caliber offensive line and the talent of Taylor. He’ll add to his 23 carries per game and 6.64 average per carry and just decimate the Fighting Illini. You’ll not want to be without him in cash games.

RB Darrell Henderson

Mem

Mizzou

$8,800

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

Henderson is averaging 10.3 per carry.  That’s over 110 carries! What the...so, yeah, the guy is good and a home run hitter to say the least. He’ll get an SEC defense in Mizzou that is rather stout against the run (25th at 120 yards per game allowed) but it hardly matters. If the Tigers sell out to stop the run, Brady White and Co. will burn them through the air.  So, it’s pick your poison with Bill Connelly’s 8th ranked offensive unit per S&P+ (an analytics system that accounts for strength of schedule and other factors).

RB Travis Etienne

Clem

NCSt

$9,400

Risk: Low

Upside: High

It took Etienne a little while to get going, though, once he did, it’s been nothing but sweetness.  He’s averaging 9.2 yards per carry, turning 83 into 761 and 11 touchdowns! He’s been taken out in blowout wins against Furman (11 carries), Georgia Southern (16), Georgia Tech (11) and Wake Forest (10).  Now that they get a quality opponent in NC State, he’ll play the whole game, like he did against Syracuse, when he put up 203 and three scores. He’s scored six touchdowns in their last two games and we fully expect him to lead this offense with true frosh quarterback Trevor Lawrence still getting his feet wet. Big game coming.  Don’t be without him.

RB Miles Sanders

PSU

@Ind

$7,100

Risk: Low

Upside: Very High

Sanders is Penn State’s lead back and those words alone mean something.  He’s managed 17 attempts per game and his primary backup, freshman Ricky Slade is buried a bit.  James Franklin and company are rolling with Sanders. He gets a pretty good Indiana defense - but this has back-and-forth shootout written all over it.  Sanders hasn’t been too involved in the passing game, not rare for a team with a quarterback who tends to scramble a bit himself. That’s not a concern as Sanders will likely find paydirt a couple times and return a value on this price tag.

RB Ta’Zhawn Henry

TTech

KU

$5,300

Risk: Medium

Upside: High

Back to the Red Raiders and their true freshman starting running back, Henry. He’s got a cool first name and while a 4.4 yards per carry pales in comparison to Henderson and Etienne, he has found the end zone seven times.  Four in one game against Houston and even though his carries against solid defenses (WVU and TCU) were just 8 and 9 respectively, we do expect the Raiders to get back to the running game and lean on Henry a bit more in this one.  His price is such that there is a big return possibility here. Sure, there is some risk as well with a stable of backs that could make an appearance at any point and take over. Also, since Duffey is starting at QB, he tends to cut into the running backs production.  Give him a shot in Tourney lineups.

WR Jerry Jeudy

Bama

@Tenn

$8,100

Risk: Medium

Upside: Very High

The only reason you see a  “Medium” risk for Jeudy is the rare instance that Tua Tagovailoa goes deep to somebody other than Jeudy and the Tide get up by 30+ by the end of the half and the starters sit (again). His worst game this season - and he’s only had one clunker - was a two-catch, 58-yard performance against LA-Lafayette.  That’s the only concern - this could follow a similar game script. However, fellow wide receiver Devonta Smith is banged up and may not play, thus limiting some of those other options and ensuring that Jeudy returns his value again.

WR Antoine Wesley

TTech

KU

$7,400

Risk: Medium

Upside: Very High

Back to this one. Wesley is the No.1 in this offense now that T.J. Vasher is ailing. That’s a very good thing.  Even with a more mobile quarterback calling the signals back there in Duffey, Wesley will get his. He has 41 grabs for 703 (17.2 average) and a team-leading five touchdown grabs. He is a bit all-or-nothing, though his worst game was last week against TCU, hauling in three passes for 82 yards. Not really too bad.  His 13-catch, 261-yard, three touchdown performance against Houston was his coming out party and the potential for a repeat of that performance is there. Then again, even half of that would be just fine.
 

WR Jalen Knox

Mizzou

@Mem

$4,500

Risk: High

Upside: High

Looking for some cheaper options at wide receiver and this guy shows up in our model. With Emanuel Hall still missing from the team due to injuries and off-field circumstances, Knox remains on QB Drew Lock’s radar in what could easily turn into a shootout.  Just ask Vegas, they have this over/under set at 73 currently. His best game was against Purdue, when he broke loose for five grabs, 110 yards and a couple of scores. Last week against Alabama, he managed three grabs for 61 yards and a score. Not bad against an elite defense.  Expect him to be involved and easily return 2x on this price point.

WR Nico Collins

Mich

@MichSt

$4,200

Risk: High

Upside: High

Again, looking to go cheap since we are likely going heavy at quarterback and running back in these cash game lineups. Look no further than Nico Collins. Sparty is the top run defense and should be able to slow down Karan Higdon and Chris Evans.  That means Harbaugh may need Shea Patterson to open it up a bit downfield. He’s a bit inconsistent, so know that there is a bit of risk here. He has just one touchdown but that’s bound to change here soon and at this price, he should be owned heavily.