Welcome to the week 7 Playbook! We’ll open with a quick table for your reference with the Vegas implied team totals for every team in the main slate and then we’ll just dive right in! Plenty to dissect this week.
Ohio State | 44 |
UCF | 43 |
Memphis | 39 |
Texas A&M | 37 |
Notre Dame | 37 |
Oklahoma State | 34 |
Penn State | 33 |
Auburn | 31 |
Washington | 30 |
Georgia | 29 |
Texas A&M | 27 |
Oregon | 27 |
Kansas State | 27 |
South Carolina | 25 |
Baylor | 23 |
LSU | 22 |
Michigan State | 20 |
Pitt | 17 |
Tennessee | 16 |
Minnesota | 15 |
Obviously guys like Haskins and Trayveon WIlliams are options (which is also the logic behind posting the team totals) and if there are other studs on teams that are expected to score a lot, play them with confidence. I can’t write up everyone that could make a roster scenario, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think they’ll struggle. Fun fact, I think the Over/Under in the UCF/Memphis is the highest I’ve ever seen (at least in a LONG time) at 81.5!!!
QB McKenzie Milton | UCF | @Mem | $10,400 | Risk: Low | Upside: Very High | |
Easily the best player on the slate, Milton is priced accordingly. He’s also expected to be in a bit of a shootout, though I think he’ll be playing with the lead, which may hurt his passing numbers. He does run a lot as well though, but at his price it’s hard not to factor some gameflow risk. He very well may score 50+ too, so there’s definitely more than enough upside to pay it off. |
QB Ian Book | ND | Pitt | $8,700 | Risk: Low | Upside: Very High | |
Book has changed the entire complexion of the ND offense since taking over 3 games ago. He gets the benefit of taking on a struggling Pitt defense. In games not against Georgia Tech and decided by less than 45 points (Penn State), Pitt has allowed an average of 275 yards passing and 2 scores. I obviously discount those because GT doesn’t throw the ball and nobody does when they are up 40, but Milton put up 328 and 4 scores passing on them two weeks ago for reference. Unfortunately, they don’t really stop the run either...more on that below. |
QB Brady White | Mem | UCF | $7,800 | Risk: Medium | Upside:Very High | |
ON the other side of Milton will be Brady White. He certainly appears to have found a home finally, and has showcased well playing off of the dominant ground game of Darrell Henderson and company, with a 15-1 TD:INT ratio through 6 games so far. There can be games where his production gets overshadowed (read: swallowed) by the ground game, but against UCF they won’t be able to have the luxury of being one-dimensional. Add in that they will likely be playing from behind and that short passes can be huge gains in the hands of his explosive playmakers, and he’s a good value play. |
QB Charlie Brewer | Bay | @Tex | $6,500 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High | |
Another value option, Brewer has emerged as to top option for Baylor over the past three weeks. It’s a game he’s sure to be needed in at Texas, whose defense has been solid, but not impenetrable through the air. Baylor won’t stop Texas very often, so he might actually approach the 60 attempts he had a few weeks back as they try to keep up. If you spend for someone like MIlton, you’ll probably want to land here. |
QB Skylar Thompson | Kan St | Ok St | $5,600 | Risk: High | Upside: Very Good | |
He’s cheap. He’s the better passing option of the revolving QB door for the Wildcats. In a game they are sure to be trailing, it’s certainly plausible he gets on a bit of a run and cannibalizes the snaps and puts up solid numbers. Oklahoma State’s defense has been susceptible to the pass this year, so his upside is ahead of other flex options, which gets him in the playbook. |
RB Dexter Williams | ND | Pitt | $8,200 | Risk: Low | Upside:Very High | |
The risk here is the inverse risk of Book earlier. Either could go for 50 because Pitt doesn’t really stop much run or pass. In his 2 games since returning from injury/suspension (Va Tech and Stanford) he has run for 239 yards and 4 scores. It’s hard to see him being under 100 and a score. |
RB Justice Hill | Okla St | @KSt | $6,900 | Risk: Low | Upside: Very High | |
Remarkably, Justice Hill has scored in 12 straight games. It’s easy to see that streak continuing and his price has started to slide down as well, probably in large part to the fact that he’s only had 6 receptions on the year and one multi-TD game. The talent is there for a big game and he has shed a lot of the committee since conference play started, dominating caries recently. |
RB Darrell Henderson | Mem | UCF | $9,500 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Very High | |
The man who is actually tasked with staring down Milton is Henderson. This kid is an absolute monster, with 4/6 games over 174 rushing yards and multiple TDs in every game this year. |
RB JaMycal Hasty | Bay | @Tex | $4,500 | Risk: Medium | Upside: High | |
Trestan Ebner stole a bunch of carries last week and is also someone to keep an eye on as well ($4700). He was non-existent before last week, so I’m going with Hasty over him, but acknowledging the risk. It’s been a fluid committee, but Hasty has gotten consistent carries every week and is an explosive playmaker. He also has some involvement in the passing game (as evidenced by his 7 catch performance against Oklahoma while trailing). He’s a value option. |
RB Otis Anderson | UCF | @Mem | $5,500 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Good | |
A cheaper option in the projected shootout where there should be enough points to go around. Involved in both the pass and run game, with 5 total TD’s on the year. Also coming off his best game of the year, with 74 rushing yards and 2 scores. |
RB Patrick Taylor | Mem | UCF | $4,000 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Good | |
Like Anderson, he’s the backup running back who is still well involved in the offense consistently and a discounted cost. Broke 3 TD’s last week and racked up 161 yards in the process. Obviously, that’s not repeatable, but it’s more to show that he’s a threat to score with every touch and there will be a ton of possessions so he should see some increased chances. ALso in this same mold is Tony Pollard at $3300 if you need additional cost cutting. He will get less chances but he’s cheaper. |
WR Miles Boykin | ND | Pitt | $7,300 | Risk: Low | Upside: Very High | |
Boykin has been another emerging star since Book took over at QB. In the past two games with Book, he has 19 catches for 261 yards and 3 scores. His pice isn’t prohibitive and ND will score at will. He should get his. |
WR Aaron Fuller | Wash | @Ore | $6,900 | Risk: Low | Upside: High | |
Fuller has topped 100 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, though he’s only scored twice on the year. Oregon has some secondary issues and I think Jake Browning will be able to exploit them if he’s given the chance. Fuller will be beneficiary in that event. |
WR Jalen Hurd | Bay | @Tex | $6,500 | Risk: Low | Upside: Hugh | |
The converted running back has been a pleasant surprise as a receiver this year. Added bonus is that there is still a wildcat package for him around the goal line, so he’s got multiple ways to score. I’ve gone over the Texas defense ad nauseum already, but he makes a nice pair with Brewer at a very reasonable price. |
WR Denzel Mims | Bay | @Tex | $5,700 | Risk: Low | Upside: High | |
Mims is more of a true receiver but fits everything else written about Hurd. I’ve even come up with scenarios where i package all three and have lots of money for studs. |
WR Damonte Coxie | Mem | UCF | $6,000 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Very High | |
He’s been a little bit boom or bust recently, but that’s been more gameflow based and I chalk that Friday night Tulane debacle as an aberration. Winning by 40 against UConn and running for a million TD’s took him out of the other one. He’s the primary target for Brady White and has tons of talent and should be highly involved in this one. |
WR Landon Wolf | Okla St | @KSt | $5,300 | Risk: Medium | Upside: Good | |
In the two games since his return (and Jalen McCleskey’s departure) Wolf has taken 12 catches for 179 yards and a couple scores. He’s another mid-value guy to take a long look at. |
WR Darrell Stewart Jr. | MSU | @PSU | $3,700 | Risk: High | Upside: Solid | |
Someone has to be a secondary target to Felton Davis following the injury to Cody White and it is going to be either Stewart or Brandon Sowards ($3800). Stewart is the better player and should get a bump as I expect Sparty to be trailing Penn State most of the day. They’re both a super cheap dart throw that lets you spend elsewhere. |
Main Example Lineup:
QB - Ian Book - $8,700
RB - Otis Anderson - $5,500
RB - Patrick Taylor, Jr - $4,000
WR - Miles Boykin - $7,300
WR - Jalen Hurd - $6,500
WR - Denzel Mims - $5,700
Flex - Tre Nixon - $5,700
S-Flex - Charlie Brewer - $6,500
Main Example Lineup:
QB - McKenzie Milton - $10,400
RB - Darrell Henderson - $9,500
RB - Tony Pollard - $3,300
WR - Damonte Coxie - $6,000
WR - Tre Nixon - $5,700
WR - Dredrick Snelson - $6,200
Flex - Darrell Stewart Jr - $3,700
S-Flex - Charlie Brewer - $6,500
Main Example Lineup:
QB - McKenzie Milton - $10,400
RB - Adrian Killins - $6,800
RB - Tony Pollard - $3,300
WR - Damonte Coxie - $6,000
WR - Tre Nixon - $5,700
WR - Dredrick Snelson - $6,200
Flex - Darrell Stewart Jr - $3,700
S-Flex - Charlie Brewer - $6,500
Afternoon Example Lineup:
QB - McKenzie Milton - $10,400
RB - Dexter Williams - $8,200
RB - Patrick Taylor, Jr - $4,000
WR - Damonte Coxie - $6,000
WR - Tre Nixon - $5,700
WR - Jalen Hurd - $6,500
Flex - Terry Godwin- $3,900 (or Chris Platt, $3900)
S-Flex - Charlie Brewer - $6,500
Night Example Lineup:
QB - Tua Tagovailoa - $10,800
RB - Leddie Brown - $4,500
RB - Joshua Kelley - $5,100
WR - Jerry Jeudy - $7,500
WR - Johnathon Johnson - $4,300
WR - DK Metcalf - $6,400
Flex - DeVonta Smith - $5,000
S-Flex - Drew Lock - $6,400
FanDuel Example
QB - McKenzie MIlton - $10,200
RB - Darrell Henderson - $10,100
RB - Dexter Williams - $9,800
WR - Gabriel Davis - $8,9000
WR - Terry Godwin - $5,400
WR - Chris Platt - $6,500
S-Flex - QB Charlie Brewer - $9,000
-Nick Dunning