I’m back with you tonight for Friday’s edition of Stack the Deck. While last Friday featured a few teams playing afternoon games, tonight’s slate features all 30 teams scheduled to play at 7:05 PM ET or later. Nonetheless, there are going to be weather issues that may change things. Atlanta @ Philadelphia and Boston @ Baltimore appear to have showers forecasted, so you’ll definitely want to keep a close eye on those two games if you want to use any players from those four teams. 

Before we get things started, I have to say, I’m playing more and more GPP tournaments this season. Results have been mixed, but I have been able to put together some nice cashes. The thing I want to remind you all is that playing GPP tournaments isn’t for the faint of heart. You’re typically entering contests where less than 20% of all entries are going to make money, and you’re usually taking a style where you are playing guys who you know will be a risk. Yes, I might have hit the jackpot with my low owned Amir Garrett play on Wednesday, but that’s all for nothing with my contrarian five man Reds stack combining for one run.

I’ll try my best to narrow down the 30 teams playing to the five stacks I feel are in the best situation.  

PREFERRED STACKS (ARRANGED IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE)

CINCINNATI REDS

I love stacking the Reds whenever they face Jon Lester. While he has only allowed two stolen bases in three games this season, he has not faced a team that is as aggressive on the bases as the Reds. Look, Lester is obviously one of baseball’s best pitchers, but he has shown plenty of vulnerabilities when facing the Reds. You may also feel that Lester is in better shape holding runners on this season, and while I am impressed by Willson Contreras’s arm, Lester still isn’t comfortable throwing to first base.

When you’re dealing with guys like Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza, it’s almost as close to a lock for a stolen base as it gets if they get on. I think people will generally be off of the Reds because, after all, they are facing a pitcher who has a 1.00 ERA this season, and that could be huge if you’re able to get someone like Hamilton and Peraza to fill the stat sheet at low ownership rates. In fact, Hamilton is 6-for-10 (.600 AVG) with two homers, a double, and six stolen bases over 10 plate appearances against Lester. Peraza isn’t too shabby himself, going 4-for-10 (.400 AVG) with a triple, double, and two stolen bases against the southpaw.

Players to consider: Billy Hamilton, Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez, and Zack Cozart

COLORADO ROCKIES 

Everyone under the sun are going to stack the Giants. Why? Well, they are playing at Coors Field, and they don’t have to face Johnny Cueto, who is one of MLB’s best pitchers. Ultimately, the Rockies are going to score their fair share of runs tonight as well. The vast majority of Rockies have faced Cueto many times before, and they have generally had a good history against him.

Some notables include Gerardo Parra who is batting .368/.415/.632 with two homers off of Cueto throughout this career, and DJ LeMahieu who is 10-for-27 (.370), lifetime, against the right-hander.

Players to consider: Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra, Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds, and Tony Wolters

MILWAUKEE BREWERS 

Yeah, the Brewers lost a little momentum losing two out of three in Chicago, but they are undoubtedly boast one of baseball’s best offenses. Believe it or not, the Brewers have scored four runs or more in EIGHT consecutive games. Adam Wainwright is not going to be an All-Star caliber pitcher at any point throughout the rest of his career, and more often than not, he has actually been a liability on the mound

Moreover, a big reason, and probably the biggest reason why the Brewers can rake at the plate is Eric Thames.

If you’ve been living under a rock, you wouldn’t know that Eric Thames is hitting .415 with eight homers and a 1.481 OPS. With that said, Eric Thames is LEGIT. Don’t let any experts out there try to tell you he’s going to regress. He’s obviously going to regress. If he doesn’t regress, Ted Williams and Barry Bonds are going to have some of their records shattered. He’s not going to bat .415 with 80 home runs this season. But for some people to ask DUMB questions like, “Is Eric Thames going to hit 30 home runs?” I think it’s ridiculous. To answer that dumb question, I say, YES HE IS.

Here’s the data to consider that no one is telling you about.

a) Thames can hit a breaking ball! PITCHf/x pitch values show that Thames does the most of his damage against changeups, followed by curveballs, fastballs, and cutters. He has seen seven different pitches this season, and the only pitch he has been below average against is a sinker. 

b) Thames can make good contact! You’ll commonly see big home run guys like Khris Davis have low contact rates, leaving them as big strikeout liabilities, and vulnerable to huge slumps. Thames actually has an 89.7% Z-Contact rate and only a 7.3% Swinging Strike rate. That is WELL above average and gives me hope that he’ll be able to sustain this tear. 

c) Thames has plate discipline! With a 13.8% BB%, it makes it more likely that he can keep his OBP close or even higher than .400 (a stretch, but not out of the question).

Players to consider: Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana, and Keon Broxton

TEXAS RANGERS

The Rangers faced Nathan Karns just ONCE from his time in Seattle, and they unloaded seven runs through four innings against the former Nationals first round draft pick. Let’s face it, the Rangers have been struggling to score runs, but it’ll definitely help being back at home in Arlington, where they averaged over five runs per game. 

Last night’s 1-0 victory was highly unexpected and you shouldn’t expect another low scoring contest tonight. Still, last night’s low scoring game combined with their recent struggles should keep their ownership lower than usual. Outside of Nomar Mazara, there have been some really cold bats for the Rangers, but that’ll turn around in due time. Guys like Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Mike Napoli are NOT going to be hitting below the Mendoza line for the entire season.

Players to consider: Carlos Gomez, Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, and Jonathan Lucroy

FAVORITE SUPER-LOW OWNED STACK

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

The A’s are far from being a popular team to use in GPPs, but they are generally full of affordable guys, and WILL get the job done more often than you think. I’m more enthused about targeting against Hisashi Iwakuma, who is now 36 years old, and has looked incredibly bad through his first three starts this season. Some notable stats include a 5.74 xFIP, 2.40 HR/9, and 43.8% fly ball rate. 

With that said, any A’s stack needs to include Khris Davis, who proving to all the haters that his 2016 season was not a fluke. 

Players to consider: Rajai Davis, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Yonder Alonso, Stephen Vogt, and Ryon Healy